[sen10l]

I'll split my argument into 3 parts: observations on the 2010 Camaro sales success, arguments for a spring/summer 2011 Z/28 release and arguments against a fall/winter 2011 Z/28 release.


2010 Camaro Sales Success (Spring 2009)
* Initial sales of the 2010 were driven by fans who had waited many years for the resurrection of the Camaro, and who loved the movie
* Studies into human behaviour (eg. "Emulation learning") show that observation of behaviours that create positive results causes that behaviour to be reproduced by others. This is clearly demonstrated in the sales success of the 2010 Camaro. Call it the "keeping up with Joneses" phenomena. People saw the Camaro on the roads in the summer of 2009, and that enticed people to buy the Camaro. Seeing the Camaro on the road produces emulative behaviour and is a greater motivator for sales than an advertisement.
* through emulative learning and the fresh influence of the Transformers movie, historically non-Camaro fans continued the sales momentum
* Winter months of 2009/2010 saw the sales of the Camaro to slow down, but not die down completely due to the fulfilling of the backlog of orders.
* Spring/Summer 2010 will see a significant number of Camaros on the road which will continue the momentum going forward. This will be the time when most of the general public (outside of fans) will start buying the Camaro. This is because of the combination of the economy, readying their finances after being exposed to the Camaro in 2009, and the continual cycle of exposure reproducing delayed behaviours which perpetuates the momentum.

Arguments against a Fall/Winter 2011 Z/28 Release
* although initial sales will be borne by the fans, most fans across N.America will not be driving on the roads. This creates very little visibility of the Z/28 to the general public, and subsequently little excitement for non-fans.
* in Spring/Summer 2012, we will see greater public knowledge of the cars but there will be a delay in actual purchases by the general public due to financial planning and circumstances (after developing emulative tendencies, people take some time before actually manifesting behaviour).
* in Winter 2012, there will be virtually no sales as the slack will neither be picked up by the general public nor fans who have already purchased their Z/28.
* In Spring/Summer 2013, this will be the time that most of the general public will start to purchase the Z/28, due to the delayed behaviours explained above.

Arguments for a Spring/Summer 2011 Z/28 Release
* First the sales success of the Z/28 will likely follow the same pattern as the 2010 Camaro
* Sales of the Z/28 will be very strong initially as rabid fans gobble up every Z/28 produced
* Subsequently, every Z/28 produced will be seen driven on the roads creating great public awareness and emulative behavioural response
* In Winter 2011, the backlog of orders built up over Summer will be reduced as the people waiting for the Z/28 gets the cars they ordered
* by Spring 2012, there will be a large number of Z/28s on the road as people who were waiting to drive their Z/28s purchased during winter and 2011 purchasers get out on the road. This will continue the consistent sales momentum going forward.

(and before a Camaro5 forum member argues with me - please note that I am trying to persuade GM to release it earlier if it were possible, so unless you actually want to wait longer or don't even care for the Z/28, kindly do NOT try to derail my effort. I would however appreciate support in my efforts, so as to keep this topic alive in the hopes that someone in GM with decision making ability will hear of it. I am also aware that there may be practical constraints that may prevent a Spring 2011 release, but that is outside the scope of this discussion (what we cannot change, we cannot change, therefore discussion is pointless but since we don't know whether the constraint exists, let us not mention a moot point). Thanks)