Originally Posted by v6sonoma
The problem with your argument is that part of the reason why Ford sold almost all it's 2010's is because they discounted them over $8k so they didn't sit on the lots for all eternity. GM has only offered an accessory incentive of $1,500 on remaining 2010's and in spite of Ford putting decent engines in the mustang the Camaro is still ahead month to month. While the Mustang 5.0's newness came and went and their sales jump died almost instantly. That is the difference. Clearly we are not going to agree. Time will tell and I'm confident that the Camaro will be just fine.
Ford gave a $2000 cash back bonuses on 2010s in January 2009, almost 4 months before they were on dealer lots. Same thing with the 2011 Mustang, I received a $2000 cash back bonus in March. Its hardly a clearance sale when units produced/sold in Jan, Feb and March were zero. I have heard of a few people getting $8k under MSRP for a 2010 but they were very few and that included the X-plan.
As far as a sales jump dying so quickly, it should... Seasonal trends always show a good 25-30% decrease in sales going into the fall. If Ford would have started production on the 2011s on 1 January 2010 with units on the lots by 1 March, Do you think the Camaro would have still outsold the Mustang or do you think the 7k unit gap would have held? Having an entire Spring/Summer to spike sales, 2011 hold outs would have only reflected Jan and Feb sales instead of the whole first quarter.
This year though, Ford intends to spike sales with a staggered MY release. The 2012 GT500s start production on 1 Jan 2011 opposed to the usual late April production along side the 2012 Mustangs. Last year, 3300 GT500s were ordered upon release with a "Ok to sale" in the summer leaving less than half as dealer deliveries. I am not sure how many GT500s were built last year (some say 5500) but those first quarter boost will even out slumping sales of the 2011 until April.
The Boss 302: Dealers are guaranteed one Boss (4600 dealers in the US and Canada) and additional 25% of Bosses will be allocated via a sales lottery that closed in September, you could be looking at 5700+ units. Most of the Boss pre orders took place 8 weeks ago and '12 GT500 (possibly the last GT500) pre orders are happening now so a sales spike is incoming on Fords side.
If Brand loyal Camaro hold outs wait for the Vert, it will have an enormous
effect on coupe sales and zero effect on Mustang sales. Sept to March is a very bad time for performance vehicle sales so I would expect a 4-5k units to be a regular trend (Dec/Jan sales will be the worst, Oshawa closes around that time). The 1st quarter leaves GM banking on a possible cannibal convertible, which the outcome in sales will not be clear until May/June.
Impulse buyers (the majority) are already on the GM lot, so I highly doubt they will pick up a Ford Mustang there and totally disregard the Camaro coupe. Hypes and Trade ins have either become Brand Loyal or were Impulsive and have moved on to something more impulsive and are forever locked in the trade in/impulse cycle.
The reason GM needs to do something is because Ford is playing very dirty. Staggering two different Mustang model years, releasing the Boss order guide far in advance and allocating those units and holding the sales stats until next year. GM knows Verts eat Coupe sales, Just as Special models do, but crossing your fingers at this point is not a solid plan.
Release the Z28 along with the Vert in April, Don't be afraid that Ford will one up them, of course they will but it won't happen this year... That's another opportunity lost, because top tier buyers do cross shop before they buy and now the '12 GT500 is alone again ready to spike Q1 sales... Plan interior/exterior redesigns for '13 leaving only two more MYs before the 6th Gen. By years end, this model will be stagnant and a fresh exterior will get them rolling again... I wouldn't bank on the Z28 tipping the sales very far, even if it did, the late release will be too late.
Insinuating that I need to own a Camaro to understand sales and marketing is about as practical as requiring Sales and Marketing to have a degree in Engineering. Although I do know quite a bit about the Camaro, none of the technical specifications actually applies to this topic.