Originally Posted by v6sonoma
I'm sorry thePill but my brother is a Mustang fan and was looking into one around the time the 2011 was hitting dealers. Dealers were THROWING 2010's at you. Ford may have only given $2k but the dealers absorbed huge discounts. The sales jump wasn't stopped due to seasonal it lasted two months and fell back down under the camaro. The only reason it even existed was due to huge discounts on 2010's. You talk about how the Camaro convertible will only cannibalize coupe sales and then talk about the GT500 and Boss 302. Those will impact and cannibalize the Mustang GT's sales. The Camaro convertible will cannibalize Mustang Convertible sales not Camaro coupe sales. GM doesn't need to worry much about Fords model release timing. Ford needs to worry about GM's.
On a side note there's no reason for anyone to attack thePill. He's entitled to his opinion. Even if it's wrong.
Dealers will continue to discount the remaining 2010s, look for a strong December sales month from Ford over November sales (see last year). December is clean out month for dealers, it is up to the dealer to drop below MSRP and those reductions really do not concern Ford directly. Its the 0%APR at the end of a MY that involves Ford.
The GT500 and the Boss do directly eat into the base market if released simultaneously with the base product. SVT intends on beating Ford to the punch and taking orders/producing GT500s before the 2012 V6 and GTs roll out. Orders are being taken now and most or all of the GT500s will be gone by spring. Add those sales to the Cash Back bonuses on the 2011 Mustangs (sales will be considerably higher since there are no hold outs for model upgrades) and you will have a very successful Q1.
The Boss on the other hand is very different when ordering the unit. Dealers are only guaranteed one Boss, So they are selling them right now but not counting those sales until it is released. Alot of the SCCA guys over on their website are buying them up with cash in hand. Those Boss models will roll out before the V6s and GTs to ensure they make the 2011 season cutoff in March. I am afraid that regular people will have a hard time buying these cars without money in hand. Once the dealer sells a Boss, they get chipped and could receive an additional Boss 302 or even a Boss LS (about 794 top Mustang dealers will be allocated a 2nd Boss and 500 Boss LS's).. This is all according to the SCCA drivers though...
The seasonal slump, this happens every year regardless of year, make or model. Even the Camaro's sales last year around September took alittle dip but nothing too bad. That is typical of a new product when sales consist mostly of impulse buyers, sales remain strong even through seasonal or economical trends. This is why CY09 everybody said the product was perfect, then CY10 people began to nitpick the product.. Impulse buyers develop tunnel vision and can usually never be turned away once they are set. The Mustang took a beating throughout the fall/winter of '09 and will most likely repeat a similar trend this year. Although, with the exception of August, sales have been better this year as opposed to last. Seeing a 10-20% increase in sales over last year at this time is pretty good when performance was the selling point and nothing else. Once dealers get a solid Job #1 date for the V6 and GT, expect those dealer incentives (not factory incentives) to pepper the entire remaining 2010 fleet. Nobody wants a 2010 Mustang in 2011, might as well be a used car but, the December flood will be dictated by remaining stock which could be very, very low...
Again, special models do cannibalize the base stock but the way Ford is playing it this year is kinda under the table dirty. Unless I specifically approach a dealer and request a GT500 or Boss 302 first, I could not be offered one at all. Also, since this is not common knowledge and Ford has jumped the gun significantly, the regular impulsive lot browser could miss out completely. SCCA guys are buying the hell out of the Boss 302...
That being said, a simultaneous release of the '12 convertible with '12 coupe will directly effect the sales of the coupe dramatically. the majority of people may opt for the V6 convertible over the SS coupe/vert due to price. Convertible people are unique, usually care/know nothing about the car other than the top coming down and will readily snub anything else on the lot that is not a drop top. There are exceptions of course, the loyal fanbase that are between a vert or a coupe Camaro... the Mustang should never enter their mind. Will it eat into the Mustangs vert sales? probably.. will it effect the Camaro coupe sales? there is no doubt in my mind, the coupe may suffer more so than the vert Mustang. The 1SS/2SS may take a beating too.
If I am wrong, then I am wrong... Just can't see any strategic advantage by holding out on the Z28 and banking on the convertible to maintain a 7k unit gap. Even if Camaro vert sales volumes were 30% on top of the 80k this year (which is saying that coupe sales maintained and the vert did not eat into the coupe) then that would be comfortable... convertibles usually make up around 30% of sales volume but only see increases in total product sales around 5-10% which typically means that, 20-25% of coupe sales are being effected just by the availability of a convertible.... It could be more.