Updated CAFE Standards

[TOMS1SS]

Originally Posted by DGthe3

Vehicles primarily burning gasoline (or diesel) will get a good deal less than 54.5 mpg. Due to the way its calculated, I bet they will end up with a real world average of 30 to 40 mpg. To start with, the archaic methodology gives everything roughly a car a 20% bonus vs its EPA window sticker. Then figure in that electric vehicles & plug in hybrids can easily achieve a 100 mpg rating, probably 200 by 2025. If sold in high volume, they'll skew the curve to read artificially high.

That's the key right there, are plug-in hybrids going to come down enough in price to viable by 2025? Somehow that $7,000 estimate mark-up for cars seems to be right on the money. Not factoring in for inflation, $25,000-$29,000 Cruze anyone?

[derklug]

Originally Posted by TOMS1SS

Not factoring in for inflation, $25,000-$29,000 Cruze anyone?

The Conspiracy Crowd would point to this as the government trying to take away our cars and force us back into cities. Only the well connected will be able to drive and the riff-raff will walk. I can't see it happening, personally, but maybe it's because I don't wear my tinfoil cap enough.

[DGthe3]

Originally Posted by TOMS1SS

That's the key right there, are plug-in hybrids going to come down enough in price to viable by 2025? Somehow that $7,000 estimate mark-up for cars seems to be right on the money. Not factoring in for inflation, $25,000-$29,000 Cruze anyone?

Well, if the value proposition for plugins doesn't pan out, and I were an OEM struggling to meet CAFE standards, I'd raise the price of my conventional cars to close the gap with my hybrids & EV's to make the efficient cars seem more attractive.

[fielderLS3]

Originally Posted by derklug

The Conspiracy Crowd would point to this as the government trying to take away our cars and force us back into cities. Only the well connected will be able to drive and the riff-raff will walk. I can't see it happening, personally, but maybe it's because I don't wear my tinfoil cap enough.

If we continue down the regulatory path we are on, this is not that far fetched long term. The traditional ascendancy of car buyers, where buyers start with a small car from a cheaper brand, and gradually work their way up the size and luxury ladder with each trade in has already been reversed. People who bought Imaplas/Tauruses in the 90s began going down to Malibus/Fusions a few years ago. Some are already beginning to fall from that down to the Cruze/Focus. If more and more regulation keeps being heaped on in the coming years, and keeps driving prices up faster than inflation and wages, eventually you hit the bottom of the product line up, at which point the last step is descended, and the car market regresses all the way back to the beginning when cars were a rich man's novelty.

[Berean]

Originally Posted by derklug

The Conspiracy Crowd would point to this as the government trying to take away our cars and force us back into cities. Only the well connected will be able to drive and the riff-raff will walk. I can't see it happening, personally, but maybe it's because I don't wear my tinfoil cap enough.

LOL. I guess you've never been to Europe where half the people ride bicycles or public transportation and only the well off own cars, or people in their 30's who have finally saved up enough to afford one. If you think every high school kid has a car, and every family has 2-3 cars in England or France like we do here in the US, you don't understand how the world works. You don't need a tinfoil hat to understand that current US automotive and energy policy is similar to that of Europe, and will achieve the same results.

[TOMS1SS]

Originally Posted by Berean

LOL. I guess you've never been to Europe where half the people ride bicycles or public transportation and only the well off own cars, or people in their 30's who have finally saved up enough to afford one. If you think every high school kid has a car, and every family has 2-3 cars in England or France like we do here in the US, you don't understand how the world works. You don't need a tinfoil hat to understand that current US automotive and energy policy is similar to that of Europe, and will achieve the same results.

Big difference. In Europe everything is packed in together and commutes are usually short. Let's not forgot that a lot of states are larger than even the biggest European countries. That's why mass transit and micro-cars work there, the average American commutes 15,000 miles a year on the other hand.

Originally Posted by DGthe3

Well, if the value proposition for plugins doesn't pan out, and I were an OEM struggling to meet CAFE standards, I'd raise the price of my conventional cars to close the gap with my hybrids & EV's to make the efficient cars seem more attractive.

Perception is reality I suppose. Most people I honestly don't think are educated enough about buying a car to notice sadly.

[Berean]

Originally Posted by TOMS1SS

Big difference. In Europe everything is packed in together and commutes are usually short. Let's not forgot that a lot of states are larger than even the biggest European countries. That's why mass transit and micro-cars work there, the average American commutes 15,000 miles a year on the other hand.

I know.

The point is, our policy maker don't care. They're adopting automotive and energy policies to force as much of the population as possible into micro cars and public transportation.

[TOMS1SS]

Originally Posted by Berean

I know.

The point is, our policy maker don't care. They're adopting automotive and energy policies to force as much of the population as possible into micro cars and public transportation.

I guess I wouldn't be a good example to disprove the point. My little four-banger and I drive 60,000 miles a year for work.

[derklug]

Originally Posted by Berean

LOL. I guess you've never been to Europe where half the people ride bicycles or public transportation and only the well off own cars

I lived in Germany for 3 years, and saw what taxes and regulations did to private auto ownership. Where I was had poor public transportation, so there were a lot of mopeds. Most families had one car and they made do. People rented close to where they worked so they could walk, so the car wasn't tied up sitting at someones work. Americans are used to having cars, and will not easily submit to European standards. The sheer size of the United States also makes European style mass transit impractical. High speed rail is nice when you are going 100 miles, but NY to LA would be a major biotch. Going the same distance from Paris gets you to Siberia.

[Berean]

Originally Posted by derklug

I lived in Germany for 3 years, and saw what taxes and regulations did to private auto ownership. Where I was had poor public transportation, so there were a lot of mopeds. Most families had one car and they made do. People rented close to where they worked so they could walk, so the car wasn't tied up sitting at someones work. Americans are used to having cars, and will not easily submit to European standards. The sheer size of the United States also makes European style mass transit impractical. High speed rail is nice when you are going 100 miles, but NY to LA would be a major biotch. Going the same distance from Paris gets you to Siberia.

I agree. I lived in England in the 90's. Bicycles were everywhere, even on the highways. It was rare for people under 30 to own a car.

One point about the high speed rails. Just do a google search and you'll see that is one of major transportation policies is pushing high speed rail, from the same people pushing electric cars, CAFE standards, gas taxes, etc.

You're also correct that it will be hard to get American's to conform to European standards, which is why the government is pushing their policies on manufacturers. We will have to conform if the only cars available are mini cars and electric cars.

Look for certain cities in the near future to start banning private cars in "core" areas served by public transportation.

[rykeith]

Get your V8s while you can people... I was planning on getting a Corvette at some point down the road. Guess it better be sooner rather than later.
http://www.insideline.com/nissan/lea...-standard.html

[JHL88]

im having my soon to be 02 z06 transferred from california as we speak

[Brokinarrow]

Just saw an article in my Popular Science magazine that said Ford is going to be using a new 3 cylinder engine in the fiesta's, believe it said starting either 2012 or 2013. 1 liter engine with the eco-boost turbo tech, puts out around 120 hp, gets around 45 - 47 mpg. So it definitely seems like they are developing towards that goal.

[DGthe3]

Originally Posted by rykeith

Get your V8s while you can people... I was planning on getting a Corvette at some point down the road. Guess it better be sooner rather than later.
http://www.insideline.com/nissan/lea...-standard.html

If GM didn't kill the Corvette or V8s when CAFE standards were first introduced, what makes you think it will be killed when they're raised?