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Old 05-03-2011, 12:42 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by thePill View Post
We won't ever see 12,000 deliveries in a month, April sales will be the peak for the entire year and 10,000 units is pretty high. When ever the 2012 order banks open, you will see a decrease in sales. This should be happening soon because MY12 should start in the beginning of June. I think the incentives should pick up this month on the 2010 Camaro's that are left. Incentives on just the 2010's will stabilize the incoming slump as dealers close out 2011 orders and customers wait for the 2012's. The Mustang is doing incredible for an 8 year old model, 8,000 units a month is unbelievable at this point but Mustang sales are unstable throughout the year. The Camaro is enjoying the pent up demand sales surge but that pent up demand for the convertible is literally destroying the coupe's sales and production. Most of those verts are probably V6's... I did some quick math last month and I figured 50% of Camaro production was convertibles and the Camaro V6 to V8 ratio was 60/40 the last time I heard.

Sales next month will either remain at 10,000 or dip back to March numbers. As soon as the 2012 order banks open, special orders will stop and the only sales will be those that are on the lot. There are a lot of Camaro's out there to pick up and incentives will help get those 2010's moving. Gas prices will affect sales later on as most of the sales numbers we see today were orders made months ago and the unsuspecting customers are receiving their Camaro's now. Convertible sales and production on the Mustang side are very low compared to the coupe and the V8's are almost 50/50 with the V6's but that includes the 5000+ GT500's. Right now, the Camaro's sales have increased by 50% since the convertible was made available and with the new 324hp V6 coming in the summer and the automatic making up 66% of sales... the LS3 may become a rare sight...
You meant 2011 i think. As the economy improves and the Zl1 comes out we could definitely see 12,000 sold in 2012. Although i suspect Zl1s will only be in 15,000 or less a year sales range.
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Old 05-03-2011, 01:11 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by b4z View Post
You meant 2011 i think. As the economy improves and the Zl1 comes out we could definitely see 12,000 sold in 2012. Although i suspect Zl1s will only be in 15,000 or less a year sales range.
The ZL1 won't be tipping the scales dramatically, If they took 7500 pre-orders for the ZL1 (unlikely) and produced and shipped them all at once those ZL1's would cannibalize the total Camaro production. Oshawa can only produce 10,000 Camaro's a month comfortably... the more ZL1's they make, the less regular Camaro's they can make and sales numbers would be the same. Oshawa is already running 3 shifts, there isn't much more they can do... and you still have to worry about QC's too. If GM put incentives on those 2010's then maybe they could break 11k but just pumping out 10,000 Camaro's and selling 12,000 won't cut it. It's safe to say that every single sell we see over the average 5000 sales in Jan/Feb are special order convertibles. Next month sales will be a bit lower, June will be lower yet as special orders are taken on the new 2012's. By the time the ZL1 comes out, the coupe sales will be at an all time low, the vert sales in the winter will be almost zero and the 2000 or so initial ZL1 sales will bring them up to where the Camaro's sales were at in Jan 2011.

When a new model is introduced in the lineup, those production numbers have to come from somewhere. High gas prices will have the V6 eating into the V8's production, Convertibles will eat into the Coupe, the ZL1 will eat into the base cars production... We were lead to believe that the introduction of a new model would stack sales on top of the existing sales but that is incorrect... In order to sell and produce convertibles you have to halt production on the coupe because Oshawa is already at the maximum production capacity. Ford only works a single shift at Flatrock, it is physically impossible for them to sell any more Mustang's but if they had to, they could add a second shift to meet demand.. but they won't have to, the demand for the Mustang that has sold almost 800,000 units is naturally falling... Everyone has had an S197 Mustang... who is still buying these (other than the Boss and GT500) is beyond me...

Edit: Your dealer is building inventory for the summer.

Edit #2: I do not think the ZL1 will see 15,000 built in the first year. The production will probably be similar to the GT500 at or around 5000. If you take a poll from this website to get a good idea of just how many people even care about the ZL1 (like the "who wants an automatic ZL1" poll), you will see that only about 2000 Camaro enthusiast are even remotely interested in the ZL1. Only 25% of those will actually buy one and that leaves the impulse buyers (which make up the majority of sales) to fill in the blanks. It wouldn't surprise me if only 3-4000k ZL1's were sold next year. Gas prices, the high MSRP and dealer mark-up will limit the sales.. and a winter release will help with a slow start as well...

Last edited by thePill; 05-03-2011 at 01:23 PM.
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Old 05-03-2011, 01:17 PM   #17
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CONGRATULATIONS TO THE CAMARO TEAM !!!!!! AND CONGRATULATIONS TO CHEVROLET FOR SELLING A RECORD NUMBER OF CAMAROS FOR MY BIRTHDAY MONTH OF APRIL!!!!! THE MOMENTUM WILL CONTINUE & MUSTANG WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUTSOLD!:chev y:
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Old 05-03-2011, 01:19 PM   #18
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Well, yeah i agree with you on all points. I do think that the improvements to the Mustang have pushed it to a price point that it is no longer as affordable to the average guy. I think in the '80s and '90s the Camaro was always more expensive and there were a lot of 4cylinder Mustangs running around which helped their sales numbers because of their affordability.
The Musangs at my local dealer all have Limited Availability dealer markups on top of the incentives.
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Old 05-03-2011, 02:07 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by thePill View Post
We won't ever see 12,000 deliveries in a month, April sales will be the peak for the entire year and 10,000 units is pretty high. When ever the 2012 order banks open, you will see a decrease in sales. This should be happening soon because MY12 should start in the beginning of June. I think the incentives should pick up this month on the 2010 Camaro's that are left. Incentives on just the 2010's will stabilize the incoming slump as dealers close out 2011 orders and customers wait for the 2012's. The Mustang is doing incredible for an 8 year old model, 8,000 units a month is unbelievable at this point but Mustang sales are unstable throughout the year. The Camaro is enjoying the pent up demand sales surge but that pent up demand for the convertible is literally destroying the coupe's sales and production. Most of those verts are probably V6's... I did some quick math last month and I figured 50% of Camaro production was convertibles and the Camaro V6 to V8 ratio was 60/40 the last time I heard.

Sales next month will either remain at 10,000 or dip back to March numbers. As soon as the 2012 order banks open, special orders will stop and the only sales will be those that are on the lot. There are a lot of Camaro's out there to pick up and incentives will help get those 2010's moving. Gas prices will affect sales later on as most of the sales numbers we see today were orders made months ago and the unsuspecting customers are receiving their Camaro's now. Convertible sales and production on the Mustang side are very low compared to the coupe and the V8's are almost 50/50 with the V6's but that includes the 5000+ GT500's. Right now, the Camaro's sales have increased by 50% since the convertible was made available and with the new 324hp V6 coming in the summer and the automatic making up 66% of sales... the LS3 may become a rare sight...

this is full of fail
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Old 05-03-2011, 02:39 PM   #20
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this is full of fail
Let me know what is wrong with the figures, I would like to hear what you are thinking other than a sentence fragment without any intelligent feedback...
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Old 05-03-2011, 08:37 PM   #21
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Niceeeeee. It's good to be on top gratz to the camaro team
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Old 05-03-2011, 08:49 PM   #22
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grt 2 see the camaro do so well a grt car for the $$$$$
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Old 05-04-2011, 08:20 AM   #23
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Production

Oshawa is on 2 shifts of production...... I work on assembly line
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Old 05-04-2011, 08:36 AM   #24
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Oshawa is on 2 shifts of production...... I work on assembly line
Really, when did they cut back? last fall?

Edit: can't be last fall, GM added a 3rd shift to the Equinox in October... maybe winter then... and it looks like there were two additional shifts added to the Camaro line in February http://www.autonorth.ca/home/2011/2/...in-oshawa.html

I can't see GM being able to keep a 10,000 unit production tempo with just one shift, it would be awesome if they could though...

Edit #2: While your on here and since you work at the plant, what is the coupe to convertible ratio now? I figured about 50/50 last month... how close was I?

Last edited by thePill; 05-04-2011 at 08:57 AM.
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Old 05-04-2011, 08:50 AM   #25
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We won't ever see 12,000 deliveries in a month, April sales will be the peak for the entire year and 10,000 units is pretty high. When ever the 2012 order banks open, you will see a decrease in sales. This should be happening soon because MY12 should start in the beginning of June. I think the incentives should pick up this month on the 2010 Camaro's that are left. Incentives on just the 2010's will stabilize the incoming slump as dealers close out 2011 orders and customers wait for the 2012's. The Mustang is doing incredible for an 8 year old model, 8,000 units a month is unbelievable at this point but Mustang sales are unstable throughout the year. The Camaro is enjoying the pent up demand sales surge but that pent up demand for the convertible is literally destroying the coupe's sales and production. Most of those verts are probably V6's... I did some quick math last month and I figured 50% of Camaro production was convertibles and the Camaro V6 to V8 ratio was 60/40 the last time I heard.
Its had about as substantial of a reworking over those 8 years as a car's going to get, but I agree it's unbelievable 8,000 Mustangs were sold last month Great month for the manufacturers for sure

Out of curiosity Pill, why do you think so many people are still special ordering Camaros? I would think that the percentage of people ordering from the factory would be almost insignificant at this point.
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Old 05-04-2011, 09:27 AM   #26
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great job Camaro
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Old 05-04-2011, 10:28 AM   #27
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Oshawa

There are two separate lines in Oshawa...Consolidated Line produces Equinox and Impala's running 3 shifts.....Flex Line produces Camaro and Regal on a 2 shift operation......vert/coupe ratio close to 50/50..V8 seems to be picking up ....surprisingly ...since gas prices have shot up
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Old 05-04-2011, 11:55 AM   #28
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Out of curiosity Pill, why do you think so many people are still special ordering Camaros? I would think that the percentage of people ordering from the factory would be almost insignificant at this point.
It's our god given right to order a brand new car. When you go into a store and buy a new TV, furniture or anything for that matter... We never want the floor model... Give it to us in the box. Same thing applies to new car sales and that is the smart way to buy. Only the last in line or deal seekers will take a floor model home, special orders "should" be the majority of these cars sales (Mustang, Corvette, Chally included). Pre-orders are also considered special orders too.. If the product isn't available yet, we can order them the way we want... If I am paying over $20,000 for a new car, I will always order it from the catalog... I will never pick it from the lot. I am willing to pay the little extra if I need to. If you look around on this forum, you will see that a large majority ordered the car special and took delivery.... that's just the way it is.

These cars are more than just transportation, If I wanted a Fiesta because I really needed a car and wasn't into being raped on rental fees.. I would walk in and buy one. These vehicles are status vehicles, regardless of the engine size, just as I wouldn't want a floor model leather couch in my living room, I wouldn't want a test vehicle in my driveway.

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