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Old 11-11-2009, 10:54 PM   #1
The Great Cathlulu
 
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I just read the article at the link. My questions is do you think it is too late or can the last 40years be reversed and how. Does GM have any good leaders and what it the evidence of that. Also using the current rate of decline as described in the article what are the chances GM will survive past 2049 when it should reach 0% market share.
http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2009/0226.html
Or is the Camaro the companies swan song.
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Old 11-11-2009, 11:09 PM   #2
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First off, welcome to the site!! We hope you enjoy yourself here! And I'm glad to see this post, it shows you're doing some research and want to know more. That's good!

Unfortunately, it is far to late for me to write the dissertation that I want to...believe me, you probably wouldn't want to read it, either...

Suffice to say, the article quotes trends and 'facts', BUT -- it is an opinion piece. And we all have an opinion. Sometimes, they are not based around fact. And sadly, it is far to easy to manipulate tables and charts to make the future look bleak. For example -- take the market share chart...why is GM placed alone up against the "import" category which includes many different companies? Lump GM, Ford, and Chrysler together (the way it SHOULD have been done!!), and you'll find the chart looks radically different. Domestic vs import market share is split roughly 50/50 right now (though it's....something like 7 companies against 3...)

The article was also written before the bankruptcy. GM is very healthy right now, in fact. They currently have a market share of 21%, and that is expected to rise mildly in the near future thanks to astounding new products, increased quality, and better marketing/customer awareness. GM is coming out of the hole it found itself in a decade ago. And they are coming out swinging!!

To answer your questions one by one:

My questions is do you think it is too late or can the last 40years be reversed and how.
No. The trend can not be reversed completely. That is, GM will never have 50% of the market again...actually; NOBODY will ever see that sort of market share again. The best we can hope for is that buyers find GM or Ford more appealing than Toyota, Honda, Hyundai or Nissan and the trend is reversed somewhat but not completely. The only way to reverse it completely is to enact ridiculously steep tariffs on imported vehicles, but there are associated economic impacts that make it a very poor choice. That said, the market is much bigger than it was then -- and though they don't hold 50% of it, GM is still vying for the #1 automaker spot, so don't worry.

Does GM have any good leaders and what it the evidence of that.
Camaro, Equinox, CTS, SRX, Malibu, LaCrosse, Enclave, Traverse, Corvette, Terrain, Sierra, Silverado....etc. Basically, any vehicle in either Chevy, Cadillac, Buick or GMC, is a GM leader. They are selling in promising numbers, or they will be replaced/updated and will sell in promising numbers soon. Take the list above, and research them a little. You will find yourself smiling after the first few Google searches.

Also using the current rate of decline as described in the article what are the chances GM will survive past 2049 when it should reach 0% market share.
Again, the article was an opinion piece. GM will never reach 0% market share, and thus, their survival will be dependent on many other factors. Given their current state of company and product....they should have no trouble sticking around for another 100 years.
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Old 11-11-2009, 11:12 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dragoneye View Post
First off, welcome to the site!! We hope you enjoy yourself here! And I'm glad to see this post, it shows you're doing some research and want to know more. That's good!

Unfortunately, it is far to late for me to write the dissertation that I want to...believe me, you probably wouldn't want to read it, either...

Suffice to say, the article quotes trends and 'facts', BUT -- it is an opinion piece. And we all have an opinion. Sometimes, they are not based around fact. And sadly, it is far to easy to manipulate tables and charts to make the future look bleak. For example -- take the market share chart...why is GM placed alone up against the "import" category which includes many different companies? Lump GM, Ford, and Chrysler together (the way it SHOULD have been done!!), and you'll find the chart looks radically different. Domestic vs import market share is split roughly 50/50 right now (though it's....something like 7 companies against 3...)

The article was also written before the bankruptcy. GM is very healthy right now, in fact. They currently have a market share of 21%, and that is expected to rise mildly in the near future thanks to astounding new products, increased quality, and better marketing/customer awareness. GM is coming out of the hole it found itself in a decade ago. And they are coming out swinging!!

To answer your questions one by one:

My questions is do you think it is too late or can the last 40years be reversed and how.
No. The trend can not be reversed completely. That is, GM will never have 50% of the market again...actually; NOBODY will ever see that sort of market share again. The best we can hope for is that buyers find GM or Ford more appealing than Toyota, Honda, Hyundai or Nissan and the trend is reversed somewhat but not completely. The only way to reverse it completely is to enact ridiculously steep tariffs on imported vehicles, but there are associated economic impacts that make it a very poor choice. That said, the market is much bigger than it was then -- and though they don't hold 50% of it, GM is still vying for the #1 automaker spot, so don't worry.

Does GM have any good leaders and what it the evidence of that.
Camaro, Equinox, CTS, SRX, Malibu, LaCrosse, Enclave, Traverse, Corvette, Terrain, Sierra, Silverado....etc. Basically, any vehicle in either Chevy, Cadillac, Buick or GMC, is a GM leader. They are selling in promising numbers, or they will be replaced/updated and will sell in promising numbers soon. Take the list above, and research them a little. You will find yourself smiling after the first few Google searches.

Also using the current rate of decline as described in the article what are the chances GM will survive past 2049 when it should reach 0% market share.
Again, the article was an opinion piece. GM will never reach 0% market share, and thus, their survival will be dependent on many other factors. Given their current state of company and product....they should have no trouble sticking around for another 100 years.
Couldn't have said it better myself.
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Old 11-11-2009, 11:18 PM   #4
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Couldn't have said it better myself.
Thats the way I usually feel whenever Dragoneye or The_Blur enter a thread.
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Old 11-13-2009, 11:01 AM   #5
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Thats the way I usually feel whenever Dragoneye or The_Blur enter a thread.
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and I just wish I find these threads sooner, they say what I wanted to say.
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Old 11-13-2009, 11:03 AM   #6
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I suppose I could always stop posting.....
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Old 11-13-2009, 11:09 AM   #7
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Old 11-13-2009, 11:49 AM   #8
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Very well said Dragoneye
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