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Old 03-25-2010, 04:53 PM   #1
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GM: Arguments for a Spring 2011 Z/28 release!

I'll split my argument into 3 parts: observations on the 2010 Camaro sales success, arguments for a spring/summer 2011 Z/28 release and arguments against a fall/winter 2011 Z/28 release.


2010 Camaro Sales Success (Spring 2009)
* Initial sales of the 2010 were driven by fans who had waited many years for the resurrection of the Camaro, and who loved the movie
* Studies into human behaviour (eg. "Emulation learning") show that observation of behaviours that create positive results causes that behaviour to be reproduced by others. This is clearly demonstrated in the sales success of the 2010 Camaro. Call it the "keeping up with Joneses" phenomena. People saw the Camaro on the roads in the summer of 2009, and that enticed people to buy the Camaro. Seeing the Camaro on the road produces emulative behaviour and is a greater motivator for sales than an advertisement.
* through emulative learning and the fresh influence of the Transformers movie, historically non-Camaro fans continued the sales momentum
* Winter months of 2009/2010 saw the sales of the Camaro to slow down, but not die down completely due to the fulfilling of the backlog of orders.
* Spring/Summer 2010 will see a significant number of Camaros on the road which will continue the momentum going forward. This will be the time when most of the general public (outside of fans) will start buying the Camaro. This is because of the combination of the economy, readying their finances after being exposed to the Camaro in 2009, and the continual cycle of exposure reproducing delayed behaviours which perpetuates the momentum.

Arguments against a Fall/Winter 2011 Z/28 Release
* although initial sales will be borne by the fans, most fans across N.America will not be driving on the roads. This creates very little visibility of the Z/28 to the general public, and subsequently little excitement for non-fans.
* in Spring/Summer 2012, we will see greater public knowledge of the cars but there will be a delay in actual purchases by the general public due to financial planning and circumstances (after developing emulative tendencies, people take some time before actually manifesting behaviour).
* in Winter 2012, there will be virtually no sales as the slack will neither be picked up by the general public nor fans who have already purchased their Z/28.
* In Spring/Summer 2013, this will be the time that most of the general public will start to purchase the Z/28, due to the delayed behaviours explained above.

Arguments for a Spring/Summer 2011 Z/28 Release
* First the sales success of the Z/28 will likely follow the same pattern as the 2010 Camaro
* Sales of the Z/28 will be very strong initially as rabid fans gobble up every Z/28 produced
* Subsequently, every Z/28 produced will be seen driven on the roads creating great public awareness and emulative behavioural response
* In Winter 2011, the backlog of orders built up over Summer will be reduced as the people waiting for the Z/28 gets the cars they ordered
* by Spring 2012, there will be a large number of Z/28s on the road as people who were waiting to drive their Z/28s purchased during winter and 2011 purchasers get out on the road. This will continue the consistent sales momentum going forward.

(and before a Camaro5 forum member argues with me - please note that I am trying to persuade GM to release it earlier if it were possible, so unless you actually want to wait longer or don't even care for the Z/28, kindly do NOT try to derail my effort. I would however appreciate support in my efforts, so as to keep this topic alive in the hopes that someone in GM with decision making ability will hear of it. I am also aware that there may be practical constraints that may prevent a Spring 2011 release, but that is outside the scope of this discussion (what we cannot change, we cannot change, therefore discussion is pointless but since we don't know whether the constraint exists, let us not mention a moot point). Thanks)
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Old 03-25-2010, 05:01 PM   #2
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You make a good case, but it is clearly over what you are hoping to happen.

But what would your plan look like when you throw in the fact that GM will be launching the Camaro Convertible in the Spring of 2011?

So Chevy will be leveraging the convertible and spending huge efforts to get it launched with outstanding quality. So many of the points you make about a car that is not even announced as existing apply to the convertible that is announced and will launch in the spring of 2011.
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Old 03-25-2010, 05:14 PM   #3
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Speaking only for myself, a late 2011 release will push me to buy in Spring 2012. There's no point me purchasing a car in winter when I'm not going to drive it in winter. MOST of N.America's population (excluding Mexico of course) is in the same weather situation as me. Most people would do what I would do and delay until Spring 2012 - why pay insurance and monthly payments for a car that will be driven maybe a handful of days during winter, if at all?

I for one hate the idea of waiting one year, let alone 2 years.

My arguments are for GM, assuming they have the ability to release in Spring 2011. Obviously they have the final say in the matter, but it helps to give them more reasons to release in Spring 2011 if that were possible.

A Spring 2011 release for both the Z/28 and convertible would not be unreasonable given that the demographics of market do not overlap.
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Old 03-25-2010, 05:28 PM   #4
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The sooner, the better..

but the 45th anniversary is in 2012, so that might have something to do with the release date. or not
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Old 03-25-2010, 05:42 PM   #5
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Well a 2012 model would be released in 2011. The Camaro was first released in Sep 1966 as a 1967 model. Therefore +45 = 2012 model released in 2011. I guess I could live with a September 2011 release, but it would be a royal pain in the ass missing yet another summer and as I have argued would NOT be the best situation for sales.
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Old 03-25-2010, 05:49 PM   #6
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Old 03-25-2010, 05:54 PM   #7
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What makes me nervous is that we seem to have a date for the Convertible release, but nothing for the Z/28. That's not a good sign!

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Old 03-25-2010, 08:24 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sen10l View Post
Well a 2012 model would be released in 2011. The Camaro was first released in Sep 1966 as a 1967 model. Therefore +45 = 2012 model released in 2011. I guess I could live with a September 2011 release, but it would be a royal pain in the ass missing yet another summer and as I have argued would NOT be the best situation for sales.
Hate to say this. Your arguments are based on what YOU would do. But us southern boys like myself would buy during the winter. We would buy first drum up sales until you yanks can get out and enjoy a car like the Z.
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We do not want to use the Z28 moniker on a car that does not deserve this hallowed name.
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Old 03-25-2010, 08:34 PM   #9
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Build it when it's ready, GM.

But we all know you will do that anyways
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Old 03-25-2010, 08:35 PM   #10
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What makes me nervous is that we seem to have a date for the Convertible release, but nothing for the Z/28. That's not a good sign!

That's cause the convertible is confirmed. The Z is still a rumor.
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Old 03-25-2010, 09:03 PM   #11
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That's cause the convertible is confirmed. The Z is still a rumor.
I'm surprised that more people aren't more excited about the convertible! Although I'll buy a Z28 when they bring back the T-Tops!!!
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Old 03-25-2010, 09:06 PM   #12
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You are tenacious, lol; I like that

I totally support a '12 model year for reintroducing Z28. It seems a release in the Spring/Summer would conform to what we've been seeing up to now, so I don't see why that would be a problem.

I support ya'
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Old 03-25-2010, 09:09 PM   #13
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The problem would be Mr Murphy.
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Old 03-26-2010, 12:17 AM   #14
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You never seem to acknowledge the fact that the Z28 had been delayed for a good many months and GM is trying very hard to get it out soon. No amount hoping can change that.
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My sister's dentist's brother's cousin's housekeeper's dog-breeder's nephew sells coffee filters to the company that provides coffee to General Motors......
........and HE WOULD KNOW!!!!
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