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Old 06-15-2010, 05:40 PM   #1
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How bad is the Gulf oil situation? Check out this article...

Frankly, I think that most people don't really know how serious this spill is. I am not an environmentalist, and I support offshore drilling.

I just read an article that seems to be very in-depth and unbiased in what's going on. In fact, it is the best write up I've seen on what's really going on.

The article comes to the conclusion that it is now a race between how fast they can drill relief wells and how soon the well itself is going to collapse. The writer is fairly certain the collapse of the well is a given, and is almost certainly going to happen before any relief wells are drilled.

I highly recommend reading the article which is long, but informative. And pretty scary.
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Old 06-15-2010, 10:47 PM   #2
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hope they fix the leak soon.

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Old 06-15-2010, 11:44 PM   #3
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Thank you for posting that. It keeps the situation in perspective. I refuse to accept that this situation won't be solved at least within this same year. (i.e. leak stopped, via a working option like a nuke or even building 6 relief wells.). You're right though that tempting mother nature is dangerous.
The problem is, according to that article...that it is quite likely the BOP (wellhead, and structure going into the oil reservoir) will collapse before the relief wells will be finished, and that will be catastrophic. The author of the article had a lot of good points as to this. It's really kind of scary because he's pretty much saying (if I read it right) that if the BOP collapses, pretty much all of the oil they were drilling to will end up in the ocean...and that's a LOT of oil.
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Old 06-15-2010, 11:46 PM   #4
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From the article:

Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly? ...it won't be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov't must be well aware too, they just are not telling us.

We need to prepare for the possibility of this blow out sending more oil into the gulf per week then what we already have now, because that is what a collapse of the system will cause. All the collection efforts that have captured oil will be erased in short order. The magnitude of this disaster will increase exponentially by the time we can do anything to halt it and our odds of actually even being able to halt it will go down.

What he's saying is that we will get more oil in the gulf PER WEEK than what's been put into the gulf so far during the last 2 months.
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Old 06-15-2010, 11:58 PM   #5
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that was the deepest well drilled on the planet according to experts in the area... when you get to 40k feet depths, the pressure is multiplied many times over what the conventional equipment allows... lets hope we can get it under control before anything else happens... my community relies on the oilfield and i can assure that there is more oil in the ground that even after 20 relief wells drawing at whatever max is, it won't "dry" the well... if they could get the oil out faster they would already be doing it.. pray for the 11 that died saving the other workers, our community, the animals affected, enviroment, and the surrounding areas... more than Louisiana is being hurt by this, and although the price at the pump may not be going up this second, i can promiss you that gas will swiftly jump to $5.00+/gal soon... the president just put a halt to all offshore drilling, thats 20-30k jobs on hold...
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Old 06-16-2010, 12:10 AM   #6
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i wonder how many people that yelled "drill baby drill" two years ago are now down there cleaning up the beaches. pretty sure i know the answer.
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Old 06-16-2010, 12:13 AM   #7
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I don't disagree that we should keep drilling...

Read the article though, because what he's saying is that he feels that this well IS going to collapse, and that the relief wells we're drilling won't be finished before that happens.

And, when it collapses, Imagine 4-5 Exxon Valdez' per week dumping into the gulf...in a way that CANNOT be captured.

He's saying the goverment and BP both know this is likely to happen, but are afraid to let the public know.
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Old 06-16-2010, 12:22 AM   #8
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He's saying the goverment and BP both know this is likely to happen, but are afraid to let the public know.

just like any potential mass-effect disaster scenario. its better to not let the public know cus things will get even more out of hand.
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Old 06-16-2010, 12:30 AM   #9
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If Gov inspectors in that part of the industry were as prevelant as FDA meat inspectors, it would not be a problem.

But only in the meat industry do we have people watching 24/7 365 to protect our "health"

No one can cut corners if there are checks n balances put in place.
Drilling is safe if you don't cut corners.

Watched the history channel show about meat once, even the lone butcher who take his killing truck to people house to slaughter 1 cow, a FDA meat inspector must be on hand to watch.

On a off shore rig, there should be about 20+ of them doing a similar job.

Its is all on BP but anyone with a brain knows you must have Gov inspectors around to keep folks honest.

We got safe meat, but at nuclear power plants and oil drinning and refining plants, no one is watching to keep them honest like we do for meat.


I include nuke as we got one local, twice now the doam or cap on it has been eaten nearly through by "leaking" acid, and we don't find out till it almost killed everyone and they had to tell somone. Not like on day 2 when it started, but 2 days before it might have blown up.


Gov inspectors aren't doing their job anymore.
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Old 06-16-2010, 05:25 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2ndgenz28 View Post
If Gov inspectors in that part of the industry were as prevelant as FDA meat inspectors, it would not be a problem.

But only in the meat industry do we have people watching 24/7 365 to protect our "health"

No one can cut corners if there are checks n balances put in place.
Drilling is safe if you don't cut corners.

Watched the history channel show about meat once, even the lone butcher who take his killing truck to people house to slaughter 1 cow, a FDA meat inspector must be on hand to watch.

On a off shore rig, there should be about 20+ of them doing a similar job.

Its is all on BP but anyone with a brain knows you must have Gov inspectors around to keep folks honest.

We got safe meat, but at nuclear power plants and oil drinning and refining plants, no one is watching to keep them honest like we do for meat.


I include nuke as we got one local, twice now the doam or cap on it has been eaten nearly through by "leaking" acid, and we don't find out till it almost killed everyone and they had to tell somone. Not like on day 2 when it started, but 2 days before it might have blown up.


Gov inspectors aren't doing their job anymore.
depends where the ship (yes, mobile offshore platforms are 'ships') is flagged from. Different countries, somehow, have different inspection protocols (somehow) when off the US coastline.

And yeah, the regulators weren't doing that good of a job when several major oil corporations include protecting Walruses in their environmental plans (Walruses haven't existed in the Gulf of Mexico for millions of years). Or when they list a dead guy as a consulted expert. Or when all the plans are practically identical, regardless of company or drill site. Someone should have clued in. And these things have been happening for years. It isn't the fault of any particular administration or party: there is enough blame for everyone.
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Old 06-16-2010, 11:21 AM   #11
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hope they fix the leak soon.

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Old 06-16-2010, 01:52 PM   #12
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It isn't the fault of any particular administration or party: there is enough blame for everyone.
No its the status quo for Gov jobs for the last 200 years, high pay and bennfits with very little chance of ever getting fired. aka easy street
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Old 06-16-2010, 02:32 PM   #13
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I think one positive sign is the USA always has (1) manufactured crisis every year. Last year it was swine flu shots. I'm not worried about any oil spill. If it was as bad as everyone says pensacola beach would be soaked with oil and it's not. (notice you never see two different crises at the same time.) No ones allowed to take any pictures at Grand Isle, LA. Whatever they're doing, they will probably be "done" in August. This just looks like another stupid distraction. It's annoying. It's not believable. And this is a duplicate of an event that happened in 1979 in that area. This will blow over by September. It's just another scripted event. I'm going to go relax now.

sidenote: this is just to cut back on local drilling. this is the oldest trick in the book. no one should be worried about this "spill". always using scare tactics. every single year. its so annoying. OH NO THE SKY IS FALLING. stop the offshore drilling operations fast. quick pass that energy reform legislation! yay for us.

Don't all of us fall for this all at once. They already proved in '79 that a devasting gulf oil leak wont really do that much damage and will heal itself. that's why they aren't worried about it.
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Old 06-16-2010, 02:56 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by 2001ragtop View Post
I think one positive sign is the USA always has (1) manufactured crisis every year. Last year it was swine flu shots. I'm not worried about any oil spill. If it was as bad as everyone says pensacola beach would be soaked with oil and it's not. (notice you never see two different crises at the same time.) No ones allowed to take any pictures at Grand Isle, LA. Whatever they're doing, they will probably be "done" in August. This just looks like another stupid distraction. It's annoying. It's not believable. And this is a duplicate of an event that happened in 1979 in that area. This will blow over by September. It's just another scripted event. I'm going to go relax now.

sidenote: this is just to cut back on local drilling. this is the oldest trick in the book. no one should be worried about this "spill". always using scare tactics. every single year. its so annoying. OH NO THE SKY IS FALLING. stop the offshore drilling operations fast. quick pass that energy reform legislation! yay for us.

Don't all of us fall for this all at once. They already proved in '79 that a devasting gulf oil leak wont really do that much damage and will heal itself. that's why they aren't worried about it.
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Old 06-16-2010, 03:02 PM   #15
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Frankly, I think that most people don't really know how serious this spill is. I am not an environmentalist, and I support offshore drilling.

I just read an article that seems to be very in-depth and unbiased in what's going on. In fact, it is the best write up I've seen on what's really going on.

The article comes to the conclusion that it is now a race between how fast they can drill relief wells and how soon the well itself is going to collapse. The writer is fairly certain the collapse of the well is a given, and is almost certainly going to happen before any relief wells are drilled.

I highly recommend reading the article which is long, but informative. And pretty scary.
Not a bad article, but still seriously mis-informed... Agree or disagree, here it is from another perspective...

When a well head is spudded in, first run into the sand and mud of the ocean floor, it goes in to varying depths depending on local strata or bottom soil makeup. Usually it is around 100 feet... From that point downward, they drill a hole for 20 inch casing. The hole is a little bigger in diameter than that to allow for the casing to be run in... When they reach the TD, (target depth) they stop drilling, come out of the hole and then go in with a cement stinger... The cement is run down through the drill pipe, into the bottom of the hole and is forced up the outside of the casing all the way to the surface... This creates a solid chunk of rock and concrete where only sand and silt and shale rock existed before. This section of concrete and steel is usually around 1000' in total length, though it may be substantially longer.

At that point, several test are performed. the BOP is tested, or is supposed to be, the casing is tested for integrity, and then they drill out the shoe, the concrete straight down, and perform a LOT or FIT. To detailed to explainh here, but they are test's of the formation integrity.

From that point, they drill ahead on the next section.... The prog...or program determined by the geologists determines how far this section is drilled. When they reach the TD, they trip out of the hole, run casing, and start over again with the test and things.

To imagine what this guys is talking about in his article, he needs to consider some things... There is no way ever that the whole ocean floor is going to collapse from the weight of the BOP, and open the reservoir to the ocean... They were drilling around 13,000 feet under the sea floor...

The picture the well bore, think of drilling progressively smaller holes in a piece of wood. 1" hole down an inch or two... 1/2" hole down to ten inches deep, then a 3/8" hole from there down to 38 or 39 inches, and then a 1/4" hole on down to 20 feet or so.... getting the picture... do you think a cavern is a safe haven in case of an aerial attack, wellthats a few dozen feet of rock, or a few hundred at best... we are talking over two miles of rock in this case... The astack weighs closer to 325 tons if it is a very very big stack... At most it probably was a five ram stack with a double annular and probably weigh substantially less than the guy mentioned.... Regardless of the weight, there is no way it will ever collapse to the point of literally falling into the oil sands 13,000 feet below it...

There are 13,000 feet of sand, rock, salt, and myriad other things over the top of the reservoir. There is a phenemonon <[sp] known as bridging over. I had the misfortune of experiencing one shallow gas blow out in my life, and as bad as it was, the hole bridged over in about two or three hours... remember I said shallow gas... we were in 300 feet of water, just getting ready to cement the 20" casing and wellhead, when it happened...

The ocean floor did not open up and liberate all of the gas, it did what is has done for millions of years... it bridged over and the leak slowed and then stopped...

The well heads are designed to hold the weight of the stack for indeterminate periods of time... This is why there is the LMRP, mentioned in the article, it is so that in the event of a disaster or really bad weather such as a hurricane, they can seperate the LMRP from the stack and leave... coming back at some point in the future and re-attach and carry on with the work.

The "sonic testing" he mentioned is for the relief wells...They use this in addition to other methods to help determine where the directional relief wells are, and to determine if there are any changes to the known geologic areas of the oil sands... In other words, are we headed to the right area, and do we need to re-route along the way...




Quote:
Originally Posted by Russo View Post
that was the deepest well drilled on the planet according to experts in the area... when you get to 40k feet depths, the pressure is multiplied many times over what the conventional equipment allows... lets hope we can get it under control before anything else happens... my community relies on the oilfield and i can assure that there is more oil in the ground that even after 20 relief wells drawing at whatever max is, it won't "dry" the well... if they could get the oil out faster they would already be doing it.. pray for the 11 that died saving the other workers, our community, the animals affected, enviroment, and the surrounding areas... more than Louisiana is being hurt by this, and although the price at the pump may not be going up this second, i can promiss you that gas will swiftly jump to $5.00+/gal soon... the president just put a halt to all offshore drilling, thats 20-30k jobs on hold...
The relief wells are being drilled into the area where the oil sands are penetrated by the first hole, when they get to that area, the intent is to either pack the whole area off with cement, or failing that, fracture the formation and then pack it off with cement... This has been done many many times succesfully ...It's sound technology... The talking heads are naysaying it with purchased experts to keep this on the front burner... Thats where they get their pulitzers and other awards and higher paying jobs...Drama people....

This rig is credited with drilling the deepest well ever, but this well was not it...

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Originally Posted by CamaroSpike23 View Post
just like any potential mass-effect disaster scenario. its better to not let the public know cus things will get even more out of hand.
How so... Failure to tell the truth leads to speculation and finger pointing...

Quote:
Originally Posted by DGthe3 View Post
depends where the ship (yes, mobile offshore platforms are 'ships') (wrong... they are flagged as MODU's, Mobile Offshore Drilling Units, and they are inspected by the same regulations worldwide... They fall under the MODU and ABS, American Bureau of Shipping, the Coast Guard of the respective Country, and various International regulatory agencies. If they are self propelled, then they have a Captain, but are still a MODU... ) is flagged from. Different countries, somehow, have different inspection protocols (somehow) when off the US coastline. This is also inaccurate... We fall first and foremost under the regulations of MMS, the Materials Management Service... Then ABS, MODU, Coast Guard, and numerous other regulatory agencies... This applies to all drilling rigs operating in U.S waters, regardless of who owns them and where they are flagged, and it applies to most rigs world wide....I am on a Marshall Islands Flagged rig owned by a U.S. company drilling for a state oil company in Brazil... and ABS in on the rig right now preforming an inspection....

And yeah, the regulators weren't doing that good of a job when several major oil corporations include protecting Walruses in their environmental plans (Walruses haven't existed in the Gulf of Mexico for millions of years). Or when they list a dead guy as a consulted expert. Or when all the plans are practically identical, regardless of company or drill site. Someone should have clued in. And these things have been happening for years. It isn't the fault of any particular administration or party: there is enough blame for everyone.
Blame the Walrus stuff on the legal eagles and GreenPeace, not on the Oil industry. The plans are practically identical since we work for the same regulating agencies...The difference is the integrity and capabilities of the people working the rigs, the company men, the OIM's, the tool pushers, all the way down to the galley and br hands, the guys that make our bunks up... They are all being paid to be there and have a job to do... and no one is any more important than any other... as with any industry, the company is only as good as the people working at the root levels...
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Old 06-16-2010, 03:03 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by 2ndgenz28 View Post
If Gov inspectors in that part of the industry were as prevelant as FDA meat inspectors, it would not be a problem.

But only in the meat industry do we have people watching 24/7 365 to protect our "health"

No one can cut corners if there are checks n balances put in place.
Drilling is safe if you don't cut corners.

Watched the history channel show about meat once, even the lone butcher who take his killing truck to people house to slaughter 1 cow, a FDA meat inspector must be on hand to watch.

On a off shore rig, there should be about 20+ of them doing a similar job.

Its is all on BP but anyone with a brain knows you must have Gov inspectors around to keep folks honest.

We got safe meat, but at nuclear power plants and oil drinning and refining plants, no one is watching to keep them honest like we do for meat.


I include nuke as we got one local, twice now the doam or cap on it has been eaten nearly through by "leaking" acid, and we don't find out till it almost killed everyone and they had to tell somone. Not like on day 2 when it started, but 2 days before it might have blown up.


Gov inspectors aren't doing their job anymore.
What you talking about? Our meat doesn't even meet the Mexico criteria.

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Old 06-16-2010, 03:26 PM   #17
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Not a bad article, but still seriously mis-informed... Agree or disagree, here it is from another perspective...

When a well head is spudded in, first run into the sand and mud of the ocean floor, it goes in to varying depths depending on local strata or bottom soil makeup. Usually it is around 100 feet... From that point downward, they drill a hole for 20 inch casing. The hole is a little bigger in diameter than that to allow for the casing to be run in... When they reach the TD, (target depth) they stop drilling, come out of the hole and then go in with a cement stinger... The cement is run down through the drill pipe, into the bottom of the hole and is forced up the outside of the casing all the way to the surface... This creates a solid chunk of rock and concrete where only sand and silt and shale rock existed before. This section of concrete and steel is usually around 1000' in total length, though it may be substantially longer.

At that point, several test are performed. the BOP is tested, or is supposed to be, the casing is tested for integrity, and then they drill out the shoe, the concrete straight down, and perform a LOT or FIT. To detailed to explainh here, but they are test's of the formation integrity.

From that point, they drill ahead on the next section.... The prog...or program determined by the geologists determines how far this section is drilled. When they reach the TD, they trip out of the hole, run casing, and start over again with the test and things.

To imagine what this guys is talking about in his article, he needs to consider some things... There is no way ever that the whole ocean floor is going to collapse from the weight of the BOP, and open the reservoir to the ocean... They were drilling around 13,000 feet under the sea floor...

The picture the well bore, think of drilling progressively smaller holes in a piece of wood. 1" hole down an inch or two... 1/2" hole down to ten inches deep, then a 3/8" hole from there down to 38 or 39 inches, and then a 1/4" hole on down to 20 feet or so.... getting the picture... do you think a cavern is a safe haven in case of an aerial attack, wellthats a few dozen feet of rock, or a few hundred at best... we are talking over two miles of rock in this case... The astack weighs closer to 325 tons if it is a very very big stack... At most it probably was a five ram stack with a double annular and probably weigh substantially less than the guy mentioned.... Regardless of the weight, there is no way it will ever collapse to the point of literally falling into the oil sands 13,000 feet below it...

There are 13,000 feet of sand, rock, salt, and myriad other things over the top of the reservoir. There is a phenemonon <[sp] known as bridging over. I had the misfortune of experiencing one shallow gas blow out in my life, and as bad as it was, the hole bridged over in about two or three hours... remember I said shallow gas... we were in 300 feet of water, just getting ready to cement the 20" casing and wellhead, when it happened...

The ocean floor did not open up and liberate all of the gas, it did what is has done for millions of years... it bridged over and the leak slowed and then stopped...

The well heads are designed to hold the weight of the stack for indeterminate periods of time... This is why there is the LMRP, mentioned in the article, it is so that in the event of a disaster or really bad weather such as a hurricane, they can seperate the LMRP from the stack and leave... coming back at some point in the future and re-attach and carry on with the work.

The "sonic testing" he mentioned is for the relief wells...They use this in addition to other methods to help determine where the directional relief wells are, and to determine if there are any changes to the known geologic areas of the oil sands... In other words, are we headed to the right area, and do we need to re-route along the way...






The relief wells are being drilled into the area where the oil sands are penetrated by the first hole, when they get to that area, the intent is to either pack the whole area off with cement, or failing that, fracture the formation and then pack it off with cement... This has been done many many times succesfully ...It's sound technology... The talking heads are naysaying it with purchased experts to keep this on the front burner... Thats where they get their pulitzers and other awards and higher paying jobs...Drama people....

This rig is credited with drilling the deepest well ever, but this well was not it...



How so... Failure to tell the truth leads to speculation and finger pointing...



Blame the Walrus stuff on the legal eagles and GreenPeace, not on the Oil industry. The plans are practically identical since we work for the same regulating agencies...The difference is the integrity and capabilities of the people working the rigs, the company men, the OIM's, the tool pushers, all the way down to the galley and br hands, the guys that make our bunks up... They are all being paid to be there and have a job to do... and no one is any more important than any other... as with any industry, the company is only as good as the people working at the root levels...
Wow. Very nice.
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