Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago economists estimate that in the short run an increase in the CAFE standards costs US consumers $6.5 billion in value even after accounting for improved fuel efficiency. Over that same period the change reduces US manufacturers profits by $9.1billion. In the long run those costs rise significantly and are shifted more to the consumers. They also found that foreign manufacturers profits are largely unaffected by increased CAFE standards.
They also found that increased fuel efficiency due to CAFE standards incentivizes Americans to drive more resulting in increased negative externalities (pollution, congestion, accidents etc.) amounting to almost $2.10 of negative externalities per gallon. Increased accidents due to more frequent driving by itself offsets 95% of the benefits of CAFE standards.
So yes, government is not only very much A factor in the shift to EVs, it is overwhelmingly THE primary factor.
The CAFE standards alone cost US manufacturers and citizens billions of dollars every year while at the same time making us less competitive, increasing the number of accidents, increasing congestion and yielding negligible to zero benefits.
Don’t believe me? Here’s the study.
https://www.mackinac.org/S2022-06
There’s tons more data proving the point. It’s dense, and I’m a bit of a data nerd, but this is what I used to do for a living.