[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by SomeGeoffGuy

It's not like there is a switch they can flip. 2028 is already baked, and that is when stuff starts phasing in. When you are talking EV and hybrid, the technology is changing so fast, it is a new platform every time. So the old 18 or 24 month engineering cycle that Honda and Toyota always bragged about is pretty much out the window. Even Tesla takes a while to put EV's out. Look how long it took to bring the cybertruck into production - 2019 to 2024 - so five years? So if you have to meet an EV target for 2030, time is just about up.

-Geoff

I see what you are saying here, but there’s quite a bit of nuance to this. Cybertruck is a completely new platform with a lot of groundbreaking tech (48V electrical architecture, totally new formulation of stainless steel [not DeLorean] steer-by-wire with no physical backup) so it would have been a miracle if it had been delivered on time. But Musk does have a tendency to over-promise and under-deliver and CyberTruck is a shining example of both.

EV platforms are harder to develop and take longer for the first application. But variants can and should come quicker. Once Tesla developed the skateboard for Model 3, Model Y followed relatively quickly and went on to become the high volume application, produced in (4) plants globally.

GM’s Ultium BEV3 platform was late coming to market (Lyriq) but expect to see variant after variant pop over the next year (Blazer EV and Equinox EV out now. Cadillac Optiq and Vistiq to follow soon, then a Buick model or models).

Hyundai is doing the same thing. Now that they have their basic platform, they have introduced Ionic 5, Kia EV6, Genesis GV60, Kia EV9 and have several more products positioned for release in 2024 and 2025.

Part of the draw of moving to high volume EV for legacy automakers is that they can do multiple vehicles of different sizes and values using the same basic platform instead of multiple billion dollar plus architectures. Then variations can be launched with different tophats in relatively short order.