Quote:
Originally Posted by radz28
And Camaro doesn't have a ragtop nor a Big Dog, like Mustang has had.
|
Depending on production volume this year, the Convertible could account for 30% of total production (New convertibles would see a 30% production share with the coupe). Assuming that GM will only stack an additional 30k+ units to production on top of the current coupe numbers would be a bad assumption. GM has already started to limit coupe production this year to accommodate the influx of Vert production, coupe sales and production will likely fall about 20-25% this year.
Convertibles usually generate only about a 5% increase in total sales for a model throughout the CY (between 4-6k depending on production) and that's a pretty good chunk out of the entire US Convertible market. Convertibles only account for 2% of the entire US car market (or roughly 120k Convertibles a year). The other 20-25% of convertible sales are directly taken from the coupe's production and sales. Last year, GM produced 129k Camaros, to assume that GM would just produce an additional 38k convertibles on top of that would be wishful thinking. Remember, Oshawa is already working 3 shifts...
GM started limiting production shortly after the MY11 Camaro started production, most likely due to the 30k unsold '10 coupes but it also gets Camaro production down to where it needs to be in order to produce the vert. As it sits right now, By the time the vert is ready to sell in April, sales for the coupe could be down by almost 20%. MY hold outs and an aging product contribute to the downward trend... convertible sales may only sustain sales and not boost them pass the magic 1% sales increase.
I see the Convertible and the new V6 eating most of the SS sales this year. If demand of the V6 go up along with the new Convertible then SS production will be affected and shortly after... sales...
Mustang convertible sales will only see a small decrease, if any.. Convertibles compete on the entire US market against other convertibles. Even if every potential Mustang convertible owner decided to buy a Camaro vert, it would only be about a 5000k unit decrease seeing that the Mustang controls only 2% of US vert sales. That would be a stretch as the last I heard, Fords production volume for the vert Mustang is 15%, And I am being generous with a possible 5% Camaro vert market share... The Convertible king of sales is the MX-5 and it soaks up 10% of the market at a $22k price tag.
The Z28 will help but it won't tip the scales drastically, Boss and GT500 sales will mitigate that. GM would have to produce and sale 12,000 Z28s to stay even with Fords Special models.