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I definitely understand needing to theorize. I have been there on trying to figure out a failure on my own car when so many things broke at the same time it makes it that more difficult. I was more or less stating for the people reading the thread to never chance it. while something else could have failed first, you have to go with the most likely suspect, especially since this is NOT the first to have this problem, and I fear, it wont be the last.
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