[MIchael Westen]

Ford sold 3711 Mustangs last month (March), which was up from February and down from the slightly more than 10,000 they sold in March 2008.

Presuming those numbers reflect what we'll see in April from the blue oval, and given the estimated numbers of pre-orders and cars built so far, it will be a tight contest all through the Spring. (Oshawa is thought to be building at least 200 cars a day, which is 4,000 per month, or 4,800 a month if they run on Saturdays.) What happens to Camaro sales once the pre-orders are filled? Will these cars move off the dealer lots quickly?

The economy is the four trillion dollar question. It's killing Mustang sales (down almost 70%), and could cool Camaro sales quickly once the pre-orders are built and shipped. However, if there were a year that the Camaro could easily outsell the Mustang, 2010 is it. While an extensive refresh, the 2010 Mustang is an update of a chassis that's been out there for several years, while the Camaro fills a pent-up demand, having been absent since 2002.

I think the odds are good that the Camaro wins 2010. If/when the economy recovers, and the Mustang floats back up (if it does) to the 10,000 a month range, it may be tough for the Camaro to beat. Sales in the 90,000-100,000 range would be pretty good in a strong economy, and the Mustang tends to run just a little higher, mostly due to the low entry costs of the base and Pony V6 cars.

If Oshawa ramps up to 350 per day and runs on Saturdays, the monthly output would be 8400, which is where I am getting 90,000-100,000. Obviously, we don't know if they can produce more -- those are just the target numbers we've seen posted here.