|
That's just it. Nobody has a crystal ball. Based on previous consumer demographics/habits, one can only speculate. Predicting future car values is like trying to determine where a tornado will touch down. You may be correct...or not. Time will tell. I'm turning off my emotional attachment to the Camaro for a minute and step back and see it from an economic view.
If they don't make another Z/28 ever, or one that is "weaker" than the 5th gen versions, that may make a big difference. But again, we don't know that just yet.
I remember in the 80s when they said the IROC-Z would be super valuable in the not-too-distant future...and??? No. Why? They built a better mouse-trap in years since. I've only run across 2 IROC Zs recently that was asking 1987 MSRP prices in 2015. So that's less than 50% of the value of 1987 dollars.
2nd gens are JUST NOW starting to pick up steam on the collectability standpoint. About 40 years after the fact. It took less than 20 before the 60s/early 70s muscle was gaining serious momentum. And it's still fairly strong today.
The muscle-car phenomenon from yesteryear is something that is not in line to be duplicated again. Would be nice to see, though.
One good thing going for the Z cars is that in the big scheme of things, they didn't make 80,000 of them. So there is a rarity factor hanging in there.
In the near-term, I don't see Z car values dropping off a cliff. I have a ZL1 where values are plummeting right now too. Not that I worry that much since it's not going anywhere anytime soon.
So if you want to believe these 5th gens will somehow be worth a bazillion dollars one day, then go ahead. But current trends likely won't support it. This has nothing to do with desirability. I think the Camaro fans will always love them. But I don't see a truckload of current 5th graders 20 years from now clamoring to get their hands on a 2015 Z/28 or ZL1 and paying stupid money to get it.
So even if you bought at MSRP and keep it 20 years and someone pays you 110,000 for it, you still may be just breaking even accounting for inflation. Which is about right if you just use 2% inflation average. Selling it for what you paid for it would net a loss.
But if you're buying new at 50-55K, well, that's not a bad entry point for a car like a Z/28. Which I may be in the minority, but while I can afford to buy a Z/28, I couldn't do the car justice other than driving it around town or looking at it in the garage. I don't have an interest in tracking my cars, so for me it's totally impractical. But if you were going to buy a 5th gen ZL1 or Z/28 and keep it for a long time, now seems the best time you would want to get one.
Let's look at my IROC Z example for a second. IIRC, they were about $16K for a bare bones IROC in 1987. Add some cool options and we'll just round it to 20K. That's in 1987 dollars. Pretty sporty for back then. Just to break even accounting for inflation, you'd have to sell it for $42K today. And how much was spent in time-capsuling the car away?
This is why it's a major LONGSHOT buying a car as an investment tool. You may have better luck making millions on FanDuel.
__________________
2010 2SS TE, 1 of 822/2013 Camaro ZL1 vert, 1 of 54

|