Thread: Tesla?
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Old 11-29-2020, 07:05 PM   #44
Martinjlm
Retired from GM
 
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Drives: 2017 Camaro Fifty SS Convertible
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For what it’s worth, the direction the industry is going is one where there will be both electric vehicles and ICE vehicles. Electric vehicles will no doubt take a huge chunk out of the overall vehicle market, but ICE vehicles will still be around. If you like ICE vehicles, that’s the good news. The bad news?

Don’t expect for low volume specialty ICE vehicles to hang around for too much longer. For Camaro specifically, once all Cadillacs are electric, Alpha platform is g-o-n-e. Camaro can afford to hang on now at low volumes because GM still needs Alpha for CT4 and CT5. And yes I know the Cadillacs are on Alpha 2 and Camaro is on Alpha, but there is still a ton of parts sharing and process / production equipment sharing that keeps Camaro affordable to build now, but will go away when Cadillac is all electric.

When that happens, expect Camaro to go electric. Since C8 is so new, and there will be a couple hybrid variants produced, Corvette will hang on as an ICE based product for many years to come.

ICE vehicles will stick around for the long haul because people will be able to choose from various forms of hybrid vehicles and battery electric vehicles. Now that battery costs are coming down in price, vehicle producers are coming to market with more exciting designs and content and also considering performance oriented battery packs and electric motors. Look at the content of the Hummer EV. Up to 1,000 hp. Up to 400 mile range. There’s more coming. A lot more. Look at the Volvo based Polestar 1 and Polestar 2. Performance luxury sedans priced $60 - 80,000. Polestar 1 is a plug-in hybrid, Polestar 2 is a battery electric. Pretty nice looking vehicles. Pretty damn good performance. Not for everybody, but also not a Nissan Leaf.

That doesn’t mean that everything is going to switch to battery electric, though. Automakers don’t have the money to make such a switch anytime soon. GM has said they’re going to spend $27B in the next several years to expand their EV strategy. They’re spending $2B to convert DHAM to BEV production. Another $2B to convert Spring Hill and to upgrade Orion, which already produces Bolt EV. So that’s $4B to convert 2-1/2 plants. GM has about 25-30 plants just in the US, Mexico, and Canada. No way they can convert them all with $27B. Also, that $27B is supposed to include vehicle development costs, too. Making Cadillac all electric, plus the (4) GMC and (4) Chevrolet and (2) Buick models will eat up most if not all of the $27B. The rest of the portfolio will remain ICE.

Expect Ford and Stellantis to follow similar strategies, with similar costs.
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