[Martinjlm]

My thoughts on the future of gas engines. They will be around for several more decades. Automakers have raised the bar on development of fuel saving and emissions reduction technologies that you see (Stop / Start, Cylinder Deactivation) as well as those that you don’t see even though they may be on the cars you drive (Cooled Exhaust Gas Recirculation [EGR], short route EGR, Deceleration Fuel Cutoff [DFCO], close coupled converters, gas particulate filters, high pressure GDI [significantly higher pressure than today’s “high pressure” direct injection]).

There is also a lot of work on integrating electrification with combustion engines. Things like 48V Mild Hybrid systems, 48V based electric superchargers, and other techs that either allow the automaker to downsize the engine or allow the engine to operate long periods of time with the engine off. I’m not talking Stop / Start here. I’m talking integration that allows your engine to shut off at highway speeds for short periods of time. Sailing. While the car is sailing, an electric motor is turning the transmission and driveshaft. Press your right foot and the engine jumps back into the party. Seamlessly. All Audi and Mercedes 4 and 6 cylinder cars coming to market now have a 48V Mild Hybrid system built into them. And Mercedes just introduced their first V8 48V Mild Hybrid system in the GLS that launched at the NY Auto Show last week. The next generation of 48V engines in those cars will likely including the sailing function I described.

Then there are companies like Toyota and Mazda that are working on technologies to increase the thermal efficiency of combustion engines. Both companies have engines capable of achieving 41% thermal efficiency. Thermal efficiency is basically how much of the heat energy released from a unit of fuel gets converted into energy to move the wheels. For most gasoline engines, thermal efficiency is somewhere in the 25 - 33% range. Diesels tend to be in the 35 - 45% range. Toyota and Mazda are introducing engines with diesel-like thermal efficiency. If combustion engines were going away anytime soon, they’d be spending that development money elsewhere.