Quote:
Originally Posted by DGthe3
So, short version is US likes Georgia (probably because they oppose Russia) but they haven't been 'behaving' as nicely as we think they should. On the whole, I say this conflict has very little to do with the west. As long as they fight by the 'rules', I say stay out it.
And war between Russia and the US isn't going to happen. Nobody has anything to gain from it, and Russia has an awful lot to lose. Their navy is rusting in port and their airforce is just as bad. The last 20 years have been really tough on them. The US hasn't had it easy, but your Airforce is just about as potent now as it was then and you still have more carrier deck space than the rest of the world combined. Land conflict is basically out of the question.
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The only reason I didn't rule out direct confrontation is that Russia had no hesitation to invade Georgia. There were no sanctions or UNSC meetings. It was just all-out war. I'm concerned that Russia is too bold and wouldn't be afraid to flex its muscle. From a political science standpoint, Russia is expected to have drastic policy changes due to leadership change. Putin may still be in the executive, but he is only the Premier. The Russian President has all of the necessary power to go to war. With new leadership comes executive leadership problems. There is no way to prepare to be the president, so new leaders tend to make questionable policy decisions. This may reflect that the new leadership is inexperienced in foreign affairs and perhaps very stubborn, thus creating obstacles to future relations.