Electric Vehicles

[silversleeper]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Annnnnnddd…..GO!!!https://youtu.be/1_qAM1e0E9k?si=ylVM9OivF5aJalEb

I did enjoy the video.
Since it was made for a general non tech audience the good engineering stuff or tech stuff was all edited out. Jay Leno has mostly non tech in his but better to watch.
I am sorta getting her vision. I have to sit and ponder how GM gave up making good sedans and only made fleet vehicles for so many years. I have to sit and contemplate is she now trying to bring GM back to a car that people want vs foisted on gov entities or rental car companies and old brand loyal people?
I am concerned she doesn't include hybrids because USA is more like a few different countries in one so using another country or city as a model as what EV acceptance can be due to infrastructure, geography as well as climate and mental climate won't translate well to the USA.
Seems smart but not brilliant; but what CEOs are? So my buy sell hold would be hold

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by silversleeper

I did enjoy the video.
Since it was made for a general non tech audience the good engineering stuff or tech stuff was all edited out. Jay Leno has mostly non tech in his but better to watch.
I am sorta getting her vision. I have to sit and ponder how GM gave up making good sedans and only made fleet vehicles for so many years. I have to sit and contemplate is she now trying to bring GM back to a car that people want vs foisted on gov entities or rental car companies and old brand loyal people?
I am concerned she doesn't include hybrids because USA is more like a few different countries in one so using another country or city as a model as what EV acceptance can be due to infrastructure, geography as well as climate and mental climate won't translate well to the USA.
Seems smart but not brilliant; but what CEOs are? So my buy sell hold would be hold

Here's my thoughts on why no hybrids…
Before GM announced the strategy to go all electric they had 9 or 10 vehicle platforms, 6 engine families, and 5 transmission families. Figure about 1/2 billion per year to maintain or upgrade a vehicle architecture, about $300M a year to maintain or upgrade an engine family, and $200M a year to maintain or upgrade a transmission family. Then look at an EV skateboard platform that has a fraction of the component content of an ICE chassis and is scalable to the point that you only need 2 or 3 to cover the entire portfolio spread that you currently use 9 or 10 ICE platforms to cover. Equinox EV, Blazer EV, and Lyriq (plus Honda Prologue and Acura ZDX) are built on the same basic skateboard with varying length. That would be 3 platforms in ICE trim. Silverado EV, Sierra EV, and Hummer EV are built off the other platform. There might be another platform coming. And they have I think 5 electric motors and 3 drive units that they use like Lego blocks to build the propulsion systems for each vehicle. That’s a crapton of cost savings. This is why all the new startups are starting with EV only instead of ICE.

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

That’s a crapton of cost savings. This is why all the new startups are starting with EV only instead of ICE.

Savings for whom, exactly?

https://www.edmunds.com/car-buying/a...s-gas-car.html

Pretty sure there are other forces in play besides skateboard/lego design architecture, too. (note: "NOT A MANDATE!!")

https://www.aier.org/article/epa-pha...storic-echoes/

[snizzle]

Well, here's the thing we've discussed pages ago, we all know the automakers are being influenced/coerced perhaps both indirectly and directly by government. This is not unique to the EV transition. However, they also have noted the future engineering/manufacturing efficiencies that will come from moving to such a simplified platform and production model (except the software, which has proven much harder than legacy automakers expected). Combine those forces of motivation. They are moving quicker than regulations because of their own internal projections and what outside consultants are telling them. This is a train that will not stop even if the pace slows because consumers push back.

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by snizzle

This is a train that will not stop even if the pace slows because consumers push back.

IMHO, only if the following conditions are met:

• Keep the Chinese out (for American OEMs to survive)
  
• EVs get drastically cheaper
  
• Charging and power generation/transmission infrastructure improves
  
• Battery tech markedly improves, range and charge times.
  
• Feds keep making ICE production harder and harder, more expensive, less reliable through regulation
  
• The climate impact hyperbole stays at fever pitch and people still believe their tailpipe emissions have EVERYTHING to do with it.
  
• Consumer sentiment changes favorably to EVs.
  
• Feds keep throwing in subsidy money
  
• Gasoline stays over $2.50/gal

Any one or more of those sticks comes out, and the Jenga tower falls. The path to "inevitability" seems more perilous to me, I guess. We can agree to disagree. I get that EVs are relatively simple to manufacture, but their sales depend heavily on policy right now, which can change quickly. EVs will retain a share of the market, but I feel the timeframe for total dominance you guys are describing would be beyond my lifetime, if ever.

[silversleeper]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Here's my thoughts on why no hybrids…
Before GM announced the strategy to go all electric they had 9 or 10 vehicle platforms, 6 engine families, and 5 transmission families. Figure about 1/2 billion per year to maintain or upgrade a vehicle architecture, about $300M a year to maintain or upgrade an engine family, and $200M a year to maintain or upgrade a transmission family. Then look at an EV skateboard platform that has a fraction of the component content of an ICE chassis and is scalable to the point that you only need 2 or 3 to cover the entire portfolio spread that you currently use 9 or 10 ICE platforms to cover. Equinox EV, Blazer EV, and Lyriq (plus Honda Prologue and Acura ZDX) are built on the same basic skateboard with varying length. That would be 3 platforms in ICE trim. Silverado EV, Sierra EV, and Hummer EV are built off the other platform. There might be another platform coming. And they have I think 5 electric motors and 3 drive units that they use like Lego blocks to build the propulsion systems for each vehicle. That’s a crapton of cost savings. This is why all the new startups are starting with EV only instead of ICE.

That makes sense. I hate how they throw out the design of a good reliable engine and transmission for some minor improvement and make it unreliable. If I were King there would be only one or two engine trans choices and they would both be reliable even if 2mpg less than Fords for example. Similarly I'd have one hybrid that would go into everything with maybe bigger electric motor in heavy platforms. I would not make any e pickups or medium or HD trucks and leave that small segment to others until such time as battery tech made them more viable. I'd have that hybrid as option one for pickups or a single gas option engine trans. HD pickups and medium duty trucks get the second option gas or maybe diesel. For example hybrid, 4.8gas, or diesel in 3/4 ton or medium duty trucks. I think all those choices are working against us. Similar to how that restaurant saver tv show comes in and most of the time he says half their problem is the menu has too many items. Like jack of all trades and master of none.