Electric Vehicles

[olrocker]

The EOs are just the start to get the ball rolling…… we have at least 2 years with Capital Hill generally in the same direction - legislation to reduce EPA funding and decrease CAFE standards, as well as override various state regulations, is coming.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by olrocker

The EOs are just the start to get the ball rolling…… we have at least 2 years with Capital Hill generally in the same direction - legislation to reduce EPA funding and decrease CAFE standards, as well as override various state regulations, is coming.

None of that matters if the OEMs are continuing forward with the strategies that they have already invested billion$ into.

[90503]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

None of that matters if the OEMs are continuing forward with the strategies that they have already invested billion$ into.

"None of that matters if the OEMs are continuing forward with the strategies that they have already invested billion$ into."

Thats' a big "if"...If they continue receiving numerous tax credit subsidies to purchase, IRA funds, California and other state mandates kept in place, (which will likely end), as part of the strategy. The "they" (taxpayer) invested billions into the strategy will soon end.

Continuing forward as is could end up being a losing strategy throwing good money after bad...

And what about the billions invested already that could be taken advantage of to produce ICE with easily attainable reduced emissions and CAFE requirements? Too much trouble I suppose to manufacture some variety. The OEM that offers more choice and sees the benefit of competition by offering ICE products will have the successful strategy.

[speedyink1]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

None of that matters if the OEMs are continuing forward with the strategies that they have already invested billion$ into.

You mean..it doesn't make good business sense to make sudden 180° changes in strategies that take years of R&D unfold?

I get it, a majority of us here want our V8s back. However, let's keep expectations realistic. GM won't in a million years suddenly reverse course for a four year future. They're looking way beyond that, as they should be.

[FarmerFran]

Stellantis has already slowed down

The ICE Charger is pushed up
The Ramcharger was pushed up
The long range REV put on permanent hold - they will still do the standard range

Now sure that is only 1 company. but they shifted priorities

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by 90503

"None of that matters if the OEMs are continuing forward with the strategies that they have already invested billion$ into."

Thats' a big "if"...If they continue receiving numerous tax credit subsidies to purchase, IRA funds, California and other state mandates kept in place, (which will likely end), as part of the strategy. The "they" (taxpayer) invested billions into the strategy will soon end.

Continuing forward as is could end up being a losing strategy throwing good money after bad...

And what about the billions invested already that could be taken advantage of to produce ICE with easily attainable reduced emissions and CAFE requirements? Too much trouble I suppose to manufacture some variety. The OEM that offers more choice and sees the benefit of competition by offering ICE products will have the successful strategy.

GM has already shown their hand here. Before Trump was re-elected, GM had set up quite an extensive EV portfolio. In order of introduction GM already had in place

• Hummer EV
• Cadillac Lyriq
• Chevrolet Blazer EV
• Chevrolet Silverado EV
• Chevrolet Equinox EV
• Cadillac Escalade iQ
• GMC Sierra EV
• Cadillac Optiq

Since the election GM has:

• Started production of the Cadillac Vistiq (4th Cadillac EV if you’re keeping count. Actually 5th if you include the $300k+ Celestiq)
• Announced that they have achieved variable cost profitability on all EVs in their portfolio.
• Announced that Cadillac XT4, XT5, and XT6 will all end production by the end of 2025.

Beyond that, GM is expected to introduce several more EVs in 2025, including

• Chevrolet Bolt replacement.
• An undefined Buick EV.
• The Chevrolet Blazer EV SS (Finally!! My original plan was to buy one of these when it was planned to be the FIRST Blazer EV trim to be released)

Ford is taking things slower than GM. There's a good chance that they may not upgrade the F150 Lightning and just let it end. But on the other hand, they are already working on the upgrade to the Mach E. They have delayed (but not cancelled) the 3-row utility that was originally planned for their Oakville Canada plant. When they bring that vehicle back online it will likely go in the Blue Oval City complex in Tennessee. Until then they will do more hybrids and focus on the next gen Mach E.

Stellantis is no doubt relieved by the relaxing CAFE standards since they were very much likely to miss them. This buys them more time to develop and roll out their STLA platform which is capable of producing ICE, Hybrid, and BEV products from the same chassis. Charger will be the first vehicle that takes advantage of this functionality and already has the BEV version available for sale.

Originally Posted by speedyink1

You mean..it doesn't make good business sense to make sudden 180° changes in strategies that take years of R&D unfold?

I get it, a majority of us here want our V8s back. However, let's keep expectations realistic. GM won't in a million years suddenly reverse course for a four year future. They're looking way beyond that, as they should be.

EXACTLY my point. Let's roll the calendar back to 2017-2018. This is BEFORE GM announced their Zero Emissions / Zero Fatalities / Zero Congestion strategy. President Trump and Congress were able to get a walk-back on CAFE standards through the SAFER Act. What did GM do? They committed to meeting the standards that were already in effect at the time. Reason being they (and other OEMs) had already spent R&D dollars, application engineering dollars, and supplier tooling dollars and suppliers already had contracts in hand for the components needed to meet those requirements. Stopping progress would mean dollars wasted, suppliers having to lay off employees, and possibly lawsuits from suppliers for broken contracts. Those same conditions exist today. The technologies and calibrations to meet 2027 emissions as they are currently on the books started development 2 - 5 years ago. That's just the nature of the auto industry.

Originally Posted by FarmerFran

Stellantis has already slowed down

The ICE Charger is pushed up
The Ramcharger was pushed up
The long range REV put on permanent hold - they will still do the standard range

Now sure that is only 1 company. but they shifted priorities

The REV program itself is not on "permanent hold". Stellantis is re-ordering the roll out cadence and dropping the highest range BEV version. They apparently came to the conclusion that 229 kWh of battery is just too damn much. Plus, the range extender approach of the Ramcharger is the more logical path to providing the best long range solution.

Stellantis has also just introduced the Jeep Wagoneer S, a $70k BEV utility. Pictures below from when I was able to check it out at the NAIAS. They have BEV and REEV versions of most Jeep products coming over the next few years.

[speedyink1]

Originally Posted by FarmerFran

Stellantis has already slowed down

The ICE Charger is pushed up

Didn't this happened more because of public backlash? The EV Charger got dunked on, HARD.

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

[*]The Chevrolet Blazer EV SS [I]

I was browsing the Chevy Canada website the other day for poops and giggles, and Blazer EV SS is indeed an option.

I gotta say though, one thing they need to improve with EV marketing on their website is making the different trims/motor packages actually seem different and exciting. I still to this day do not not what makes the Blazer EV SS better performance wise then the regular trims besides bit more range.
It's way easier to get excited for different engines with different configurations (i4, V6, V8) then a choice between "Electric drivetrain 1" and "Electric drivetrain 2".
Maybe at least some 0-60 times? HP figures? I get it's not supposed to be a sports car, even me shopping for a regular lame-o DD likes to look at the options. Besides, if you're gonna call it an SS I want to know these things (I'm sure it is faster, but they aren't marketing it that way at all).

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by speedyink1

...
I was browsing the Chevy Canada website the other day for poops and giggles, and Blazer EV SS is indeed an option.

I gotta say though, one thing they need to improve with EV marketing on their website is making the different trims/motor packages actually seem different and exciting. I still to this day do not not what makes the Blazer EV SS better performance wise then the regular trims besides bit more range.
It's way easier to get excited for different engines with different configurations (i4, V6, V8) then a choice between "Electric drivetrain 1" and "Electric drivetrain 2".
Maybe at least some 0-60 times? HP figures? I get it's not supposed to be a sports car, even me shopping for a regular lame-o DD likes to look at the options. Besides, if you're gonna call it an SS I want to know these things (I'm sure it is faster, but they aren't marketing it that way at all).

Basically, it has a different, more powerful front motor than the RS. Actually, the rear motor might also be more powerful. Anyway, this is probably the best spec write-up I've seen on the Blazer EV SS.

https://www.autoblog.com/news/2025-c...raises-the-bar

The advantage that GM has over Ford and Stellantis in having released so many EV models already and building a lot of volume is that they are much further down the cost curve and can offer more reasonable pricing. Remember in an earlier post I noted that GM says they are profitable on a variable cost basis with all their EVs? Also remember when I said the Jeep Wagoneer S is being priced at $70k? Well the Blazer SS is coming in at $62k.

It will do 0-60 in 3.4s. Not that I expect to spend a lot of time launching something that big at lights, but with that kind of performance, it lines up well with the likes of a Durango SRT or F150 Raptor. At significantly lower price than either of them. It actually compares very favorably to a Tesla Model Y Performance.

Model Y Performance: $51,490 277 mile range; 0-60 in 3.5s
Blazer EV SS: $61,995 290 mile range; 0-60 in 3.4s
Durango SRT Hellcat: $115,000 0-60 3.5s
Durango SRT 392: $ 84,830 0-60 4.4s
F150 Raptor R: $109,145 0-60 3.6s

So with the Model Y-P or Blazer EV SS you can get Durango SRT Hellcat or Raptor R performance and have enough left over to by a daily driver. So much for EVs being crazy expensive.

[GreenZLE]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

None of that matters if the OEMs are continuing forward with the strategies that they have already invested billion$ into.

Very true, ESPECIALLY with GM. Thats why my guess is they'll be late to the party as usual.

[olrocker]

Originally Posted by GreenZLE

Very true, ESPECIALLY with GM. Thats why my guess is they'll be late to the party as usual.

They’ll have lots of EVs and no one to buy them lol

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by olrocker

They’ll have lots of EVs and no one to buy them lol

That could happen.

Or this could happen... https://electrek.co/2025/01/03/gm-surges-become-americas-number-2-ev-seller-2024/#:~:text=GM%20surges%20to%20become%20America's%20n umber%202,Equinox%20and%20Blazer%20EVs%20saw%20str ong%20demand.

GM surges to become America’s number 2 EV seller as electric SUVs, trucks roll out

GM outpaced rivals with new EVs in 2024

GM sold 43,982 electric vehicles in the US in the final three months of 2024, up 125% from Q4 2023. December was GM’s second straight month with over 15,000 EV sales, making it the second automaker behind Tesla to accomplish this feat.
New electric models, including the Chevy Equinox EV, were major growth drivers. GM sold another 18,089 electric Equinox models in Q4 for 28,874 in total in 2024.

[90503]

That fourth quarter increase of EVs was directly related to the possibility of the EV Tax Credit being eliminated.

Without the tax credit, demand is expected to drop 27%, and fewer buyers will be considering an EV

The Bloomberg Article. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-ev-tax-credit

US Car Sales Get Year-End Boost From Trump’s Threat to End EV Tax Credits
Story by Gabrielle Coppola, David Welch and Keith Naughton • 18h • 4 min read

(Bloomberg) -- The threat by President-elect Donald Trump to end tax credits for electric vehicles helped lift sales in the fourth quarter, giving US automakers a much-needed boost after a disappointing year.

At General Motors Co., EV sales more than doubled to almost 44,000 in the quarter. Ford Motor Co. saw a 16% jump in the category to about 30,000 vehicles. Overall EV sales gained 12%, pushing the full-year total to a record 1.3 million, according to forecasts from researcher Cox Automotive.

The strength in EVs helped push total car sales up from the year prior. The annualized rate for 2024 rose to 15.9 million cars, based on the average forecast of four researchers, up from 15.5 million a year ago.

Stocks of automakers were mixed. EV maker Rivian Automotive Inc., which reported production and deliveries that topped estimates, advanced 24% at the close in New York. Ford rose 2.4%, and General Motors gained less than 1%. Stellantis NV’s US shares fell 2% after fourth-quarter sales declined.

This EV surge isn’t expected to last into 2025. The results of the US presidential election encouraged buyers holding out for deals to make purchases before potential policy changes championed by Trump make electric options more expensive.

Only a quarter of new-car shoppers are considering an EV for their next purchase, down two percentage points from a year ago, according to JD Power.

“Threats and worries” contributed to a “sense of urgency to buying,” Jonathan Smoke, Cox’s chief economist, said on a December call with reporters. “That’s true in overall purchase activity, and it’s also very much true to the EV story.”

Trump made repealing federal policies meant to boost US EV sales a key part of his campaign, railing against what he called President Joe Biden’s “insane electric vehicle mandate.” Advisers to his transition team have recommended cutting the $7,500 tax credit on plug-in vehicles, which would make the already expensive vehicles even further out of reach for US consumers. The president-elect has also threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico — both tightly integrated into the US auto supply chain — which could also drive up the price of cars.

Sales of Ford’s electric Mustang Mach-E jumped 36% in the final three months of the year, helping to offset a 10% decline in deliveries of the F-150 Lightning plug-in pickup truck. Ford halted production of the Lighting at the end of last year to reduce inventory and losses. Total F-Series pickup truck sales, including gas-fueled models, rose 21% in the quarter.

Tesla Inc. is still the sales leader in EVs by far, but experienced its first annual sales drop in more than a decade last year despite reporting record fourth-quarter deliveries. Meanwhile, electric compact and mid-size SUVs from GM, Honda, Hyundai and Kia attracted more shoppers in December, according to JD Power.

On average, EV buyers got a $5,600 rebate per car with the current tax credit, JD Power figures show. Without that kind of incentive, demand could plunge as much as 27%, according to economists. Ford extended a promotion through the first quarter of free home chargers and installation to buyers of its EVs, which it credited for the late-year surge in battery powered models.

While some carmakers, like GM and Hyundai, have pledged to push ahead with EV offerings regardless of policy changes, others have delayed EV plans to prioritize hybrids, which saw outsized growth in 2024. Stellantis said last month it would delay launching its all-electric Ram a year in favor of an extended-range version. Hyundai said it would double its hybrid lineup and Ford has pledged to offer hybrid versions of all its models by 2030 after slashing prices on its EVs and postponing new electric models.

Automakers that take that “basket approach” will come out on top in 2025, GlobalData’s Schuster said. “If you have a full lineup of options, that’s who wins.”

As for the overall new car market, lower interest rates, rising manufacturer incentives and fading anxiety around the election drew more buyers, prompting analysts to raise full-year sales forecasts. Earlier in the year, inflation and a cyberattack on car dealerships had dimmed the sales outlook for 2024.

General Motors was the biggest automaker in the US by sales last year, delivering 2.7 million cars, followed by Toyota Motor Corp., Ford, Honda Motor Co., Stellantis and Hyundai Motor Co., according to company statements.

In the fourth quarter, General Motors posted growth of 21%, trailed by Hyundai (10%), Honda (9%) and Ford (8.8%). Meanwhile, Toyota said US sales fell 2.7% during the period. At Stellantis, which has been plagued by product launch delays and bloated inventories that led to the ouster of its CEO last year, vehicle sales fell 7% in the final three months of 2024.

Affordability is keeping car sales of all kinds below pre-pandemic levels, according to Jeff Schuster, GlobalData’s vice president of automotive research. The average retail transaction price for new vehicles is trending toward $46,258, according to JD Power. For EVs, high costs are the biggest stumbling block for potential buyers, followed by insufficient charging infrastructure.

General Motors said it was able to boost sales without resorting to heavy discounts. The average price discount was 4.2%, down almost a point from the first quarter. GM said its average transaction price was over $51,000, which was $1,000 more than it was in the first quarter.

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

[FarmerFran]

Originally Posted by speedyink1

Didn't this happened more because of public backlash? The EV Charger got dunked on, HARD.

You can blame a few things. But sure look at the crowd buying the Charger, not so much an EV crowd.

See I am no executive, but I am close enough to the top to know you just do not mess with stuff sometimes. They should have put out an EV called "something else" then made the I6 charger. They gambled and "lost". You transition these things. I mean look at ford. They did the Ecoboost 150 but left the 5.0 in the lineup. There is still a vast majority of America that is not ready for an EV and the numbers are lying. You are seeing surges in EV buying and it is clouding the true numbers.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by 90503

That fourth quarter increase of EVs was directly related to the possibility of the EV Tax Credit being eliminated.

Without the tax credit, demand is expected to drop 27%, and fewer buyers will be considering an EV

The Bloomberg Article. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-ev-tax-credit
....

Really good article. I would agree with just about everything written in it but I do think they missed a couple things. Can't fit everything in every article.

No doubt the fear of incentives going away had to have driven some additional traffic to the dealers (and online for Tesla and Rivian) but there were other factors, specifically where GM is concerned...

1. Up until early 3rd quarter, availability of GM's Blazer and Equinox EVs was very spotty. People who wanted one couldn't find one and people who ordered them were forced to wait. Some moved on to more available Tesla and Hyundai/Kia products. So better availability was a big reason for GM's 4th quarter surge.
2. GM offered some almost too good to be true financing deals on both Blazer and Equinox. I picked up my Equinox in September when I wasn't even looking for a car at all because the $0 down 24 month lease was too good to pass up.

A couple things that I was also able to figure out, mainly in completing a project for a client...

1. More than 20% of people shopping for an EV were not aware of the incentive until their dealer told them about it. Meaning they were already willing to purchase an EV even without an incentive.
2. Many who were aware of the incentive assumed that they were not eligible for the incentive due to either the vehicle they chose was not eligible or because they were over the household income threshold($150k for single filers, $300k for joint filers). Though they were aware of the incentive, they were not aware of the leasing loophole which would make them eligible despite missing on these requirements.
3. When I studied whether the vehicles that did not qualify for the incentive were more likely to use the leasing loophole I found that more than half of the non-qualifying vehicles were still retail sales, not leases. Meaning the buyers bought those vehicles without benefit of the incentive. They just paid the full or negotiated price.
4. I also looked to see if lease rates on EVs increased beyond the lease rates for similar ICE vehicles on a state by state basis. For the most part, the lease vs buy percentages for EVs was only slightly above lease vs buy for similar ICE vehicles in the same classes except for 5 or 6 states where the differences were in the 10 - 12 percentage point higher range.

So what is the actual point of all that? It points out that for at least half the people who purchased EVs over the time period I studied, buyers did not hesitate to buy the EV they wanted, even though the incentives would not be available to them. Even if they could have received the incentive by leasing instead of buying.

There is no doubt that EV sales will slow without the incentive, but considering the number of vehicles purchased without using the incentives even though they were available, the drop in sales will not be catastrophic. I expect it'll be less than the 27% that my competitor consulting firm estimates. I don't think they have the data to do comparisons of vehicles leased vs vehicles bought that I have access to.

Plain and simply, MOST EVs sold in the US DO NOT even qualify for the incentive. Yet, they still sell. For 2025, there are only about 20 vehicles that qualify for the incentive. The following list is a list of the EVs that were eligible for incentive at the start of 2024. Cadillac Lyriq and Optiq plus Chevrolet Blazer EV and Equinox EV were added later in the year when they actually became available. For 2025 several of the vehicles on the 2024 list drop off because of increased mineral sourcing restrictions. Notice that Mach E is NOT on the list for 2024 or 2025. And yet they had a sales increase in the 4th quarter of 2024. Couldn't be because of the incentive going away, because they weren't eligible for it UNLESS they were leased. And at least 50% of them, probably more, were NOT leased.

These are the EVs that ARE eligible for IRA Incentive in 2024 and/or 2025:

1. Acura ZDX: $7,500 2024 & 25
2. Cadillac Lyriq: $7,500 2024 & 25
3. Cadillac Optiq: 2024 & 25
4. Chevrolet Blazer EV: $7,500 2024 & 25
5. Chevrolet Bolt EV and EUV: $7,500 2024
6. Chevrolet Equinox EV: $7,500 2024 & 25
7. Chevrolet Silverado EV: $7.500 for vehicles $80k and under, 2024 & 25
8. Ford F150 Lightning: $7,500 for vehicles $80k and under, 2024 & 25
9. Genesis GV70: $7,500 for vehicles $80k and under, 2024 & 25
10. Honda Prologue: $7,500 2024 & 25
11. Jeep Wagoneer S: $7,500 for vehicles $80k and under, 2025
12. Kia EV6: $7,500 2025
13. Kia EV9: $7,500 2025
14. Tesla Model 3: $7,500 for vehicles $55k and under, 2024 & 25
15. Tesla Model X: $7,500 for vehicles $80k and under, 2024 & 25
16. Tesla Model Y: $7,500 2024 & 25
17. Tesla Cybertruck: $7,500 for vehicles $80k and under, 2025