Electric Vehicles

[FarmerFran]

Originally Posted by Evergreen6

I've got a GME T4 Hurricane in a Wrangler. Great engine. And the engine was produced in the US. Was the Hemi?

I'm OK with driving vehicles to 100k. After that it's time for a new one if for nothing else than boredom. Someone else can take the old one off my hands.

Speaking of which, Stella just took a seat at the table with the other automakers in the CARB pact.

Pretty sure my Wrangler and Gladiator V6s are US

[90503]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Spent the last 2 days at the New York International Auto Show. It was a lot mor balanced show than in some recent years. As much news on new ICE vehicles as EV.

One of the staples of the NYISA is that it opens with the presentation of the World Car of the Year Awards. This year’s winners (plus 2nd and 3rd) were

• World Luxury COTY: BMW i5 (over Mercedes Benz E-Class and Mercedes-Benz EQE SUV)
• World Performance COTY: Hyundai Ioniq 5 N (over BMW M2 and BMW XM)
• World Urban COTY: Volvo EX30 (over BYD Dolphin and Lexus LBX)
• World Car Design of the Year: Toyota Prius (over Ford Bronco and Ferrari Purosangue)
• World Electric COTY: Kia EV9 (over Volvo EX30 and BMW i5)
• World COTY: Kia EV9 (over Volvo EX30 and BYD Seal)

So every segment winner was an EV except for Prius.

I’m starting to think that Hyundai Kia just comes to the show to collect hardware. The 2022 World Car of the Year and World Car Design of the Year? Hyundai Ioniq 5. The 2023 World Car of the Year and World Design of the Year? Hyundai Ioniq 6. And now this year Kia EV9 takes home two trophies as well. And the performance version of past winner Ioniq 5 takes the Performance COTY with the Ioniq 5 N.

I also spent a bit of time talking to the Porsche rep about the Porsche Macan Turbo Electric (photo below). 562 hp, 630 on overboost. 0-60 3.1s. 120kWh battery that can charge from 10-80% in 21 minutes on an 800V capable DC Fast Charger. Charge delivered at 270 kW. For chargers not capable of 800V, its battery system “splits” into two systems charging at 400V, 135 kW. The Macan 4 Electric starts at $79k, the Macan Turbo Electric starts at $105k. It also has augmented reality HUD. The HUD projects “turn here” arrows and other navigation aids on the windshield aligned with your real world view when using navigation. Macan also has a screen on the passenger side that is invisible to the driver when the car is not in park.

Honda (Prologue) and Acura (ZDX) also showed their first EVs, based on GM’s Blazer EV (Prologue) and Lyriq (ZDX).

And sticking with Hyundai Kia’s domination of the show, Genesis introduced its new performance sub-brand, Magma.

Looks like you had a tough time fighting through the crowds to take pics....

[Capricio]

Good news: EVs are becoming available, at a price I'd be willing to pay for one as a 4th/commuter car.

Bad news: Can't get anything like that in the US for over twice the price (yet).

US regulations forcing domestic OEMs to compete against state/CCP subsidized manufacturers with control over 80% of their supply chain is a losing proposition. Tariffs and subsidies will only go so far. I read that BYD only outsources tires and glass on most of their vehicles. They even own their own shipping freighters.

Enjoy election year petroleum prices while they last.

Now, back to the regularly scheduled sunny-side up everything is great EVs taking the world by storm programming.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by 90503

Looks like you had a tough time fighting through the crowds to take pics....

There are no crowds. It was only open for industry media for the first two days. Public open was yesterday.

[90503]

Originally Posted by Capricio

Good news: EVs are becoming available, at a price I'd be willing to pay for one as a 4th/commuter car.

Bad news: Can't get anything like that in the US for over twice the price (yet).

US regulations forcing domestic OEMs to compete against state/CCP subsidized manufacturers with control over 80% of their supply chain is a losing proposition. Tariffs and subsidies will only go so far. I read that BYD only outsources tires and glass on most of their vehicles. They even own their own shipping freighters.

Enjoy election year petroleum prices while they last.

Now, back to the regularly scheduled sunny-side up everything is great EVs taking the world by storm programming.

Good article. US automakers IMO went about EV production bass-ackwards. The first offerings should have been low cost extremely affordable EVs for commuter cars instead of the Uber-expensive abominations like the Hummer.
("Just buy these first, then when we learn how to build them, we can maybe produce low-price models at a later date ", which never happened).
Now they want to cry foul about a low cost import that would likely sell like hot-cakes.

I hope China floods the world markets with these things. It's what EVs should have been in the first place. And they could have been built as an addition to ICE vehicles, instead of waiting for ICE to fall out of favor by policies which raised gas prices and regulations making ICE vehicles impractical to produce as the year go by and never implementing any cost savings in production with less labor and component expenses, as promised. Oh well, to hell with it all.

Go China! That was the ultimate end-game anyhow. Let's get it over with.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Capricio

Good news: EVs are becoming available, at a price I'd be willing to pay for one as a 4th/commuter car.

Bad news: Can't get anything like that in the US for over twice the price (yet).

US regulations forcing domestic OEMs to compete against state/CCP subsidized manufacturers with control over 80% of their supply chain is a losing proposition. Tariffs and subsidies will only go so far. I read that BYD only outsources tires and glass on most of their vehicles. They even own their own shipping freighters.

Enjoy election year petroleum prices while they last.

Now, back to the regularly scheduled sunny-side up everything is great EVs taking the world by storm programming.

We’re thinking that BYD is selling some of their vehicles domestically at cost, maybe even below. And they sell the same vehicles at double the price in Europe, making the whole thing profitable. I’ll see if I can find it again, but I saw one BYD vehicle that was selling for the equivalent of $16k in China and the equivalent of $35k in Europe. This is why the part of the Inflation Reduction Act that provides incentives for buying EVs produced in North America makes sense. It allows the domestic brands and the transplant brands who build here and support jobs and economies here to focus the next few years on developing product to compete with what will be a wave of Chinese vehicles (both ICE and BEV btw) that is already starting in Mexico.

Ever hear of HMM? Hyundai Merchant Marine? Hyundai controls almost everything from manufacture of steel to shipping. And the few things they don’t control they have favorable agreements with other S. Korean companies like LG and Samsung, both of which are also huge conglomerates plus Hankook and Kumho for tires.

[Capricio]

So, they can sell in europe at 100% margin and still be competitive?


Okay, great, when can I buy my $10k COTY Kia EV9?

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by 90503

I hope China floods the world markets with these things. It's what EVs should have been in the first place. And they could have been built as an addition to ICE vehicles, instead of waiting for ICE to fall out of favor by policies which raised gas prices and regulations making ICE vehicles impractical to produce as the year go by and never implementing any cost savings in production with less labor and component expenses, as promised. Oh well, to hell with it all.

Go China! That was the ultimate end-game anyhow. Let's get it over with.

I'm sure some will take your cynical sarcasm literally, but I agree that we regulated ourselves into this corner and collectively will be subject to the consequences of that. The market for $50k+ BEVs with 50% depreciation in a year and half is saturated.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by 90503

Good article. US automakers IMO went about EV production bass-ackwards. The first offerings should have been low cost extremely affordable EVs for commuter cars instead of the Uber-expensive abominations like the Hummer.
("Just buy these first, then when we learn how to build them, we can maybe produce low-price models at a later date ", which never happened).
Now they want to cry foul about a low cost import that would likely sell like hot-cakes.

They actually did do as you suggested. You probably don’t remember because it went over like a wet fart. I’ll toss some names out there. Stop me when you recognize any. Ford Focus EV. Chevrolet Spark EV. Fiat 500e. Nobody cared.

Most of the producers of EVs in the second “wave” decided to try to follow the Tesla example. Tesla’s first model was the Roadster. Literally stuffing batteries into a Lotus Evora body. Super niche, super high priced. It did ok. Their second shot was the Model S. A slightly modified Jaguar sedan design, aimed directly at Mercedes-Benz S-Class and BMW 7-Series. The top of their sedan lineup. And it kicked S-Class and 7-Series ass. And allowed Tesla to slowly claw back some of the money they were bleeding in starting up the operation. Their third shot was the Model X. Aimed directly at the fast growing luxury utility market. Bullseye. Put a dent in BMW X5, X6, X7 sales. Also helped stem the bleeding. Then they launched Model 3 and Model Y. The high volume and reasonable prices of those two opened the cash printing press on the way to being two of the highest volume and most profitable vehicles on the planet.

Hard to blame the domestics for trying to copy the same clearly successful model. Problem is, by the time they got product on the road, the market for high priced EVs is pretty much saturated. But still, they need to start with the high priced models to carry the cost of the tech content.

Originally Posted by 90503

I hope China floods the world markets with these things. It's what EVs should have been in the first place. And they could have been built as an addition to ICE vehicles, instead of waiting for ICE to fall out of favor by policies which raised gas prices and regulations making ICE vehicles impractical to produce as the year go by and never implementing any cost savings in production with less labor and component expenses, as promised. Oh well, to hell with it all.

Go China! That was the ultimate end-game anyhow. Let's get it over with.

Having worked on several of them, I can assure that domestic OEMs and global Tier I suppliers have been working for decades on developing and improving efficiency and cost of emissions and fuel economy technologies. ICE tech has been extended further than was thought possible (at least internally) 20 years ago. That’s why hybrids were such a big thing 20 years ago. And almost as equally hated as EVs are today in the same circles. But the cost, performance, and efficiency of hybrids have improved enough over the past 20 years that the same people who would have keyed a Prius 20 years ago or tried to run one off the road in traffic (I’ve seen it happen) are now saying “why not just make everything hybrid instead of pushing EVs? I would buy a hybrid truck.” History repeats. So what will we be saying 20 years from now?

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Capricio

I'm sure some will take your cynical sarcasm literally, but I agree that we regulated ourselves into this corner and collectively will be subject to the consequences of that. The market for $50k+ BEVs with 50% depreciation in a year and half is saturated.

But the interesting thing is, of all the major car markets in the world, the US is the least regulated. By a lot.

[DF454]

Hey Jim,

In your post above you mentioned that Honda's new EV is based off of the Chevy Blazer EV. Can you post a link to any news articles about that relation ship? I'm surprised Honda made a deal with GM and not Toyota or Hyundai for EV tech.


Thanks, David

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Capricio

So, they can sell in europe at 100% margin and still be competitive?


Okay, great, when can I buy my $10k COTY Kia EV9?

Well, let’s consider the fact that Kia is S. Korean not Chinese and aside from the fact that a Class D Premium SUV and a Class B low content sedan, the only thing they have in common is four wheels and the ability to drive from A to B. They are as similar as a piano and a harmonica, which both make music but exist in wildly different price ranges. So … never.

And yes, they can sell in Europe at 100% margin and be competitive with European produced EVs because they’ve already produced enough vehicles in their home market to move way down the cost curve. Those vehicles weren’t always $16k in China. The prices recently dropped to that level.

Looking at Tesla again, last year, because they’ve reached economies of scale, they’ve been able to reduce the prices on Model 3 and Model Y by thousands of dollars to be price competitive with ICE models. Model 3 starts at $36k. Model Y starts at $43,990. For those that qualify for IRA it’s $36,490. Both those numbers are very competitive with ICE vehicles in the same class. But they used to be much higher. The downside of that is by dropping the new car prices so rapidly, Tesla has tanked the resale value for the Model 3 and Model Y cars they sold in prior years for over $60k.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by DF454

Hey Jim,

In your post above you mentioned that Honda's new EV is based off of the Chevy Blazer EV. Can you post a link to any news articles about that relation ship? I'm surprised Honda made a deal with GM and not Toyota or Hyundai for EV tech.


Thanks, David

I’m not going to post an article, they’re actually easy to find, but I will give you firsthand knowledge of the GM / Honda relationship because I was very involved in the beginning of it. Long story, so grab a drink.

Back in the ‘90s automakers were acquiring each other and forging “strategic cooperations” every other week. This is the time where we saw DaimlerChrysler, NissanRenault and other combinations pop up. Honda was very concerned about being forced to collaborate with Toyota. They hate Toyota. So Honda and GM spent a lot of time discussing paths to collaborate without any financial or stock tie-ups. I was Director of Powertrain Portfolio Planning at the time and we were developing what is now known as the High Feature V6. The 3.6L that’s in Camaro since 2010, plus a shitton of other GM vehicles. It was supposed to debut in the Saturn Vue Redline, but it was running late on development. So was the transmission that was supposed to go in it. So GM and Honda struck a deal to use the Honda 3.5L V6 and 5-speed AT in the Saturn Vue Redline for the first generation car. The second gen switched over to the HFV6.

Blazer EV / Prologue is the exact opposite scenario. Honda realized they needed to jump into the EV game, but they knew they were way behind. So GM threw their buddies at Honda a lifeline and said “we’ll give you a head start on your EV strategy by letting you use our Ultium batteries and platform and build in our plants (Spring Hill for ZDX, Ramos Ariszpe for Prologue). Second gen you’re on your own.” They then agreed a little later to collaborate on a small affordable EV. That agreement has since been dissolved, but they are still working together on Fuel Cell technology.

Shortly after the Vue collaboration GM and Honda started working together on Fuel Cell technology. Honda engineers have been located at GM’s Pontiac, MI propulsion engineering center ever since then. My office was on that campus when all this started so I know about this firsthand and also spent some time in project meetings on fuel cell topics. They’re still there. GM and Honda just recently opened up a plant to manufacture fuel cell stacks in Brownstown Twp. That plant used to produce the battery packs for Chevrolet Volt.

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

They actually did do as you suggested. You probably don’t remember because it went over like a wet fart. I’ll toss some names out there. Stop me when you recognize any. Ford Focus EV. Chevrolet Spark EV. Fiat 500e. Nobody cared.

I don't remember any of those as being affordable, practical (range), or attractive compared to these new BYD offerings. Also, the government wasn't full-on driving an agenda back then, with regulations and subsidies to artificially drive demand.


Speaking as consumer, if I'm committed to taking a 50% depreciation loss, I'd digest that loss much easier on a $10k disposable car that will take up less space in the landfill one day. I might even get most or all of it back, ROI on fuel savings. I wouldn't have to drive nearly as much to recoup $5k loss, compared to a $60k+ loss on a Porsche Taycan EV.



Regardless, if you're confident demand is not there for a BDY econo-box BEV offering, then we have nothing to fear. So lets open the floodgates! If consumer demand is there (largely due to high interest rates and tightening credit) then OEMs need to adapt quickly, which I don't see happening, so they'll look to the government to protect them and fix it, which always ends well, or something.