Electric Vehicles

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by silversleeper

I did enjoy the video.
Since it was made for a general non tech audience the good engineering stuff or tech stuff was all edited out. Jay Leno has mostly non tech in his but better to watch.
I am sorta getting her vision. I have to sit and ponder how GM gave up making good sedans and only made fleet vehicles for so many years. I have to sit and contemplate is she now trying to bring GM back to a car that people want vs foisted on gov entities or rental car companies and old brand loyal people?
I am concerned she doesn't include hybrids because USA is more like a few different countries in one so using another country or city as a model as what EV acceptance can be due to infrastructure, geography as well as climate and mental climate won't translate well to the USA.
Seems smart but not brilliant; but what CEOs are? So my buy sell hold would be hold

Here's my thoughts on why no hybrids…
Before GM announced the strategy to go all electric they had 9 or 10 vehicle platforms, 6 engine families, and 5 transmission families. Figure about 1/2 billion per year to maintain or upgrade a vehicle architecture, about $300M a year to maintain or upgrade an engine family, and $200M a year to maintain or upgrade a transmission family. Then look at an EV skateboard platform that has a fraction of the component content of an ICE chassis and is scalable to the point that you only need 2 or 3 to cover the entire portfolio spread that you currently use 9 or 10 ICE platforms to cover. Equinox EV, Blazer EV, and Lyriq (plus Honda Prologue and Acura ZDX) are built on the same basic skateboard with varying length. That would be 3 platforms in ICE trim. Silverado EV, Sierra EV, and Hummer EV are built off the other platform. There might be another platform coming. And they have I think 5 electric motors and 3 drive units that they use like Lego blocks to build the propulsion systems for each vehicle. That’s a crapton of cost savings. This is why all the new startups are starting with EV only instead of ICE.

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

That’s a crapton of cost savings. This is why all the new startups are starting with EV only instead of ICE.

Savings for whom, exactly?

https://www.edmunds.com/car-buying/a...s-gas-car.html

Pretty sure there are other forces in play besides skateboard/lego design architecture, too. (note: "NOT A MANDATE!!")

https://www.aier.org/article/epa-pha...storic-echoes/

[snizzle]

Well, here's the thing we've discussed pages ago, we all know the automakers are being influenced/coerced perhaps both indirectly and directly by government. This is not unique to the EV transition. However, they also have noted the future engineering/manufacturing efficiencies that will come from moving to such a simplified platform and production model (except the software, which has proven much harder than legacy automakers expected). Combine those forces of motivation. They are moving quicker than regulations because of their own internal projections and what outside consultants are telling them. This is a train that will not stop even if the pace slows because consumers push back.

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by snizzle

This is a train that will not stop even if the pace slows because consumers push back.

IMHO, only if the following conditions are met:

• Keep the Chinese out (for American OEMs to survive)
  
• EVs get drastically cheaper
  
• Charging and power generation/transmission infrastructure improves
  
• Battery tech markedly improves, range and charge times.
  
• Feds keep making ICE production harder and harder, more expensive, less reliable through regulation
  
• The climate impact hyperbole stays at fever pitch and people still believe their tailpipe emissions have EVERYTHING to do with it.
  
• Consumer sentiment changes favorably to EVs.
  
• Feds keep throwing in subsidy money
  
• Gasoline stays over $2.50/gal

Any one or more of those sticks comes out, and the Jenga tower falls. The path to "inevitability" seems more perilous to me, I guess. We can agree to disagree. I get that EVs are relatively simple to manufacture, but their sales depend heavily on policy right now, which can change quickly. EVs will retain a share of the market, but I feel the timeframe for total dominance you guys are describing would be beyond my lifetime, if ever.

[silversleeper]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Here's my thoughts on why no hybrids…
Before GM announced the strategy to go all electric they had 9 or 10 vehicle platforms, 6 engine families, and 5 transmission families. Figure about 1/2 billion per year to maintain or upgrade a vehicle architecture, about $300M a year to maintain or upgrade an engine family, and $200M a year to maintain or upgrade a transmission family. Then look at an EV skateboard platform that has a fraction of the component content of an ICE chassis and is scalable to the point that you only need 2 or 3 to cover the entire portfolio spread that you currently use 9 or 10 ICE platforms to cover. Equinox EV, Blazer EV, and Lyriq (plus Honda Prologue and Acura ZDX) are built on the same basic skateboard with varying length. That would be 3 platforms in ICE trim. Silverado EV, Sierra EV, and Hummer EV are built off the other platform. There might be another platform coming. And they have I think 5 electric motors and 3 drive units that they use like Lego blocks to build the propulsion systems for each vehicle. That’s a crapton of cost savings. This is why all the new startups are starting with EV only instead of ICE.

That makes sense. I hate how they throw out the design of a good reliable engine and transmission for some minor improvement and make it unreliable. If I were King there would be only one or two engine trans choices and they would both be reliable even if 2mpg less than Fords for example. Similarly I'd have one hybrid that would go into everything with maybe bigger electric motor in heavy platforms. I would not make any e pickups or medium or HD trucks and leave that small segment to others until such time as battery tech made them more viable. I'd have that hybrid as option one for pickups or a single gas option engine trans. HD pickups and medium duty trucks get the second option gas or maybe diesel. For example hybrid, 4.8gas, or diesel in 3/4 ton or medium duty trucks. I think all those choices are working against us. Similar to how that restaurant saver tv show comes in and most of the time he says half their problem is the menu has too many items. Like jack of all trades and master of none.

[genxer]

Originally Posted by silversleeper

That makes sense. I hate how they throw out the design of a good reliable engine and transmission for some minor improvement and make it unreliable. If I were King there would be only one or two engine trans choices and they would both be reliable even if 2mpg less than Fords for example. Similarly I'd have one hybrid that would go into everything with maybe bigger electric motor in heavy platforms. I would not make any e pickups or medium or HD trucks and leave that small segment to others until such time as battery tech made them more viable. I'd have that hybrid as option one for pickups or a single gas option engine trans. HD pickups and medium duty trucks get the second option gas or maybe diesel. For example hybrid, 4.8gas, or diesel in 3/4 ton or medium duty trucks. I think all those choices are working against us. Similar to how that restaurant saver tv show comes in and most of the time he says half their problem is the menu has too many items. Like jack of all trades and master of none.

Most of those restauants have already sh*t the bed, for one reason or another. Restaurant saver tv shows have a terrible success rate. The truck market is massive. The buying public should be angered if market choices shrink instead of grow, and I don't mean to say one company can cover it all.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Capricio

Savings for whom, exactly?

https://www.edmunds.com/car-buying/a...s-gas-car.html

Pretty sure there are other forces in play besides skateboard/lego design architecture, too. (note: "NOT A MANDATE!!")

https://www.aier.org/article/epa-pha...storic-echoes/

Just to be clear, the Edmunds article is talking about manufacturing costs. I'm talking about product development costs. Development costs are in place before even one vehicle is built. It's the cost of engineering new product, installing the manufacturing base, and the production of tooling to manufacture the product. Supporting 3 platforms is less costly than supporting 9 or 10. And eventually, the similarities in the products coming off each architecture translate into scale in the manufacturing environment.

There are two things that make EVs more costly to produce in today's world. One is the advantage of scale manufacturing. Other than Tesla and BYD, no EV manufacturers have approached the manufacturing scale that ICE vehicle programs currently operate at. That's changing and will continue to change. If GM can produce Lyriq, Equinox EV, Blazer EV, Honda Prologue, Acura ZDX, Cadillac Optiq, Cadillac Vistiq, and an upcoming Buick EV from the same equipment and tooling sets, they are that much closer to producing at scale and their manufacturing costs/vehicle can drop dramatically.

The other is the cost of batteries. Battery prices have come down dramatically over the past five years or so and will continue to come down to the point where they are no longer a large disadvantage.

[olrocker]

Ah, the sweet sounds of a baffled Queen Mary is music to my ears

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news...rd/ar-AA1rkjXG

[Martinjlm]

Throttle House review of the latest model 3 performance. TLDR… Nice car, please don’t take it to the track.

https://youtu.be/s95xMWkqk-c?si=QfsCqAiH7FFzjbPf

[Aqua Blue RS/SS]

Originally Posted by olrocker

Ah, the sweet sounds of a baffled Queen Mary is music to my ears

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news...rd/ar-AA1rkjXG

Lol that article is laughable. Let her salty tears flow. It’s not rocket science. Most of us red blooded Americans don’t like being told what to do. We like our options, the ones of us who still have a set of stones don’t mind fighting for what we believe in, in this case by not buying EV’s. I don’t care if my neighbor has one down the street but I don’t want anything to do with them. I guess that makes me deplorable for not falling in line. I’m ok with that. It’s clear what the US government is trying to do with emissions laws and similar policies. It just shows how out of touch with the masses some of these idiots including Mary are.

[olrocker]

Originally Posted by Aqua Blue RS/SS

Lol that article is laughable. Let her salty tears flow. It’s not rocket science. Most of us red blooded Americans don’t like being told what to do. We like our options, the ones of us who still have a set of stones don’t mind fighting for what we believe in, in this case by not buying EV’s, I don’t care if my neighbor has one down the street but I don’t want anything to do with them. I guess that makes me deplorable for not falling in line. I’m ok with that. It’s clear what the US government is trying to do with emissions laws and similar policies. It just shows how out of touch with the masses some of these idiots including Mary are.

Exactly!

[Capricio]

https://jalopnik.com/automakers-slas...ale-1851659247


https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...ng-from-italy/

Urso rightly drew attention to the fact that the pace of this transition would leave no time for the EU’s manufacturers to create their own domestic supply chains, thus creating a dangerous dependency on China:

The risk is we pass from dependence on Russian fossil fuels to dependence on critical raw materials coming from, produced by, or processed in, China.

Urso is right. He might also have mentioned that the pace of the transition is as reckless as it is pointless: It will have next to no effect on the climate. But there are certain things that cannot be said aloud.

[silversleeper]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Throttle House review of the latest model 3 performance. TLDR… Nice car, please don’t take it to the track.

https://youtu.be/s95xMWkqk-c?si=QfsCqAiH7FFzjbPf

Another good review. It was fair and honest. I think the summary I took away was it wasn't well designed for real road track use because of brakes and suspension and seats were marginal also. As it is built it's good for the street and seats are comfortable and it is fun to go 80% all out as he puts it on a track. I believe he did add how nearly no one buying it would track it anyways.

It is a warrior in stoplight and street use.
I did stop and lookup prices in the middle and he did say I was thinking near the end that the dual motor long range was a sweet spot in the price and performance vs M3P. I see it is $7500 cheaper and offers plenty of performance for all but the most serious drag racer. I will say the performance boost can add good power but won't touch the original Performance models. He didn't mention car insurance as my company was interested if it was Perf or not. IDK if they rate the single and dual motors the same it seems like they might but Perf was going to be extra $. They did briefly mention the comparable German track cars higher prices but they are MUCH higher especially without tax credits. There is a better overall ride in the others even on the street. So many better options for a road track as seen on their times chart. Even a Civic R or Supra or Mustang or SS 1LE. I would certainly look at some used car to beat on for track car and not a $55k new car.
Speaking of price vs performance I was looking at Bring A trailer yesterday and a nice Challenger 2023 swinger edition but mods for lowering and driven thousands of mi (not in collector condition) sold for $53k! To me a very cool car at half that price. For half that he could get something with more tech
0-60 mph 4.0 Quarter mile 12.3 Model 3 Long range (not performance Not performance Boost) AWD means all day any day
0-60 mph 4.2 Quarter mile 12.7 Dodge Scat pak Challenger (if he got ideal traction!)

https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-...eASC&zip=95350

[silversleeper]

https://autos.yahoo.com/5-favorite-f...095602960.html
Review got me thinking costs again. He paid $10 for a 27% e-charge top off.
Both my house rates and Tesla supercharger rates have gone up. I will cover some costs here like a brief post some pages back about a Camry Hybrid being competitive in costs for fuel. Some rough calculations please correct any big mistakes:

The average electric car kWh per 100 miles kWh/100 miles) is 34.6
My electric rates have gone up and are .14-.20 /kwh. Other areas are .40 /kwh. My solar makes it free only day hours.
The supercharger I last used was .40 /kwh
so let's look at 100mi travel gas vs elec
34.6 x .40= $13.84 or my house full rate $7

My hybrid crossover gets 40+mpg. so 100mi is 2.5gal of gas. Note both do better in mixed driving, the BEV does worse in high speed 80mph+ ACon driving but the Hybrid doesn't take as big of a mph hit there, something like 4mpg.
2.5 x 4.50 /gal = $11.25


Well there goes the idea of fuel savings if you get a hybrid and pay high price for electric or superchargers. Similarly some of you live in $3 / gal gas areas to make gas more attractive.
Not to be excluded in price considerations my German car is some crazy $500 service A or Service B crap. I am risking losing the warranty changing oil myself screw that. Also no brake and rotor changes or plugs and other maintenance which I'm too lazy right now to add up but we don't consider that in our 100mi examples but 100,000 miles that's thousands of $ to add into the considerations.
https://www.notateslaapp.com/tesla-r...suv-ever-built
here are some best case BEV calculations that contradict my example.