Bad news tomorrow?...

[MrIcky]

Originally Posted by Maddog78

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P146055.asp


Just one example of what I was talking about in the above post.

/Sigh.

This is a case where people misunderstand accurate information because the source material has an agenda.

Now the total number you are referring to is really U6 on the following graph:

http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab12.htm

Seasonally adjusted U3 is the official number. U6 is always counted but it's not a good measurement for the overall economy because of the subgroups U6 tries to capture.

*quick history lesson, in the Great Depression the unemployment figure was counted using "able bodied men". It was inaccurate and likely grossly underreported. It did not include women and census data was wildly inaccurate.

*During Kennedy, they changed the counting methodology for official reporting to people actively looking for work using unemployment roles as a counting mechanism. The Black Helicopter theory is that his unemployment figures were too high so he was padding. The official story was that able-bodied men no longer reflected the workforce (which was true, women were entering the workforce at a rate unseen before and as a percentage peeked under Carter).

If you actually rephrase the question to: "Number of Households without one adult household partner gainfully employed" the unemployment drops into the 3-4% range. This is important because it more accurately compares employment figures now against the great depression. Because women neither counted nor entered the workforce in even a fraction of the percentage they enter the workforce today, the 25% estimate is much closer to accurate.

The Great Depression numbers also didn't count: dustbowl farmers, sharecroppers, seasonal workers, etc who were counted as occupation: farmer. The current U6 does attempt to pick up seasonals, although it can't really capture failed farms and some other hard to measure groups.

Again, I KNOW it's a car site, and I love cars (particularly the new Camaro) I just felt the need to get on my soapbox and explain this isn't a conspiracy, the numbers are readily available and don't reflect the whole story.

[MrIcky]

Originally Posted by porcupinekiller

I think the market is oversaturated with to many non-descriptive cars from to many non-descriptive manufactures and people have to many choices. Kia, Hyundai, Nissan, Subaru, Toyota etc etc can all go to hell as far as I'm concerned. 30 yrs ago you'd be hard pressed to see a handfull of imports on the road on a daily basis. Now well over half of the vehicles I see on the road are imports. People that buy imports are more responsible if the US auto industry collapses than the Big 3 themselves. If GM goes under make sure to give the next import driver you see a punch in the head as he played a role in this mess.

And before you punch anyone, keep in mind that if anything is keeping GM and Ford afloat right now- it's selling their cars overseas. I don't want some Brit to punch a guy driving a Focus because he didn't buy a Rover.

[fastball]

If anyone has the time and/or the means to research this, I'd like to see how GM's finacials looked throughout the 12 years of the great depression. I know the gross figures are going to be vastly different to today and completely incomparable, but profit margins, stock performance, and liquid capitol gains/losses as percentages can still be compared.

I would like to see how they looked from 1929-1941. Anyone know where or how I could look this up?

[Jamestwilliams]

Originally Posted by MrIcky

And before you punch anyone, keep in mind that if anything is keeping GM and Ford afloat right now- it's selling their cars overseas. I don't want some Brit to punch a guy driving a Focus because he didn't buy a Rover.

You don't want some brit punching someone driving a ford because he didn't buy a Ford, you do realize that up until a short time ago most british cars were owned by Ford, ie Jaguar, Land Rover, Astin Martin.

[MrIcky]

Originally Posted by Jamestwilliams

You don't want some brit punching someone driving a ford because he didn't buy a Ford, you do realize that up until a short time ago most british cars were owned by Ford, ie Jaguar, Land Rover, Astin Martin.

Oh ya, I forgot about that. Still, please don't punch anyone.

[Speedy1975]

Originally Posted by porcupinekiller

I think the market is oversaturated with to many non-descriptive cars from to many non-descriptive manufactures and people have to many choices. Kia, Hyundai, Nissan, Subaru, Toyota etc etc can all go to hell as far as I'm concerned. 30 yrs ago you'd be hard pressed to see a handfull of imports on the road on a daily basis. Now well over half of the vehicles I see on the road are imports. People that buy imports are more responsible if the US auto industry collapses than the Big 3 themselves. If GM goes under make sure to give the next import driver you see a punch in the head as he played a role in this mess.

This is all pretty assanine in general. Had the big three been producing fuel efficient reliable vehicles with high quality, good price, which held their resale value they wouldn't be in the position they're in. That's really the bottom line.

Notice that NOW they are moving in that very direction, and that is what will save them.

Also, all you guys bashing on the imports, keep in mind how many plants are in the U.S. There's a Nissan plant a rock throw from my house that employs a TON of folks who make the Xterra, Altima, and P/U I believe. They're hurting just as bad as the big three at this point and layoffs, voluntary retirements, and buyouts abound there as well.

[radz28]

I wonder how this will impact future improvements and introductions of new models for Camaro. I know they mentioned an interruption in R&D and longer model runs but is that mostly for older models that have been out than a few years? I might just have to if there's no Z28 in this model run... I'd definately prefer GM stay alive than get run into the ground with a limited model car, but I'd be pretty if I couldn't get a new Z :(

[Maddog78]

Man, think about it.
At the rate they are burning up cash and if the fed doesn't bail them out we'll be lucky to get any Camaro never mind a Z28.

[diddiyo]

Originally Posted by Speedy1975

This is all pretty assanine in general. Had the big three been producing fuel efficient reliable vehicles with high quality, good price, which held their resale value they wouldn't be in the position they're in. That's really the bottom line.

Notice that NOW they are moving in that very direction, and that is what will save them.

Also, all you guys bashing on the imports, keep in mind how many plants are in the U.S. There's a Nissan plant a rock throw from my house that employs a TON of folks who make the Xterra, Altima, and P/U I believe. They're hurting just as bad as the big three at this point and layoffs, voluntary retirements, and buyouts abound there as well.

[Mindz]

Originally Posted by Design1stCode2nd

We are not in a depression, recession yes but not a depression. There are no 15-20% unemployment figures.

Today the report was a 14% unemployment rate nationwide. I'd say we're teetering...

[DGthe3]

Originally Posted by Speedy1975

Also, all you guys bashing on the imports, keep in mind how many plants are in the U.S. There's a Nissan plant a rock throw from my house that employs a TON of folks who make the Xterra, Altima, and P/U I believe. They're hurting just as bad as the big three at this point and layoffs, voluntary retirements, and buyouts abound there as well.

I agree, Nissan isn't doing well but you reminded me of something that tends to get overlooked by most who say that 'its built here, so what does it matter if I buy domestic or not?'. How much does Nissan, or Toyota, or any other foreign automaker spend on R&D over here? There are a lot of university engineering departments that are propped up by the big three. And for every worker employed at an 'import' plant in the south, there are 2 from Michigan that have lost their job.