Next Bubble?

[RiCorvette]

Hey,
A question for those with financial/investing acumen:

"Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns"

Yeah, yeah, yeah!

Since I've started 'investing' I have lived through three bubbles - The Japanese Real Estate bubble, the Tech Stocks Bubble and most recently, the Housing Market (sub-prime mortgage) bubble.

Since I've become more attentive to how my portfolio is doing, I'd
like to be on top of what's going on and anticipate the next bubble
and mimimize the angst by pulling out before the next spectacular free-fall (that seem to be occurring at shorter intervals).

I prognosticate that the next 'Bubble' will be related to Health Care
and Pensions and will pop in 2012-2013. In the mean time, the
market will continue it's modest upward trend (up 5-6% since '08??)

What say you?

[01pewterz28]

IMHO the next bubble to burst is the Credit Card bubble in 2012

[Zabo]

Originally Posted by 01pewterz28

IMHO the next bubble to burst is the Credit Card bubble in 2012

Bout damn time if it were so. I doubt pensions would pop, the sub prime thing looked to scare 'em into at least getting it stabilized with the future in general going to the fan from a 2009 POV.

With the regulations in place, and the cards turning into card sharks preying on students as it is.. if that bubble goes *pop* I'll welcome it. Drive the rates up and all that. I prefer cold hard cash and my visa check card aka Debit card.

From day one in college, "Only spend what you have.. not what you have in speculation." I HATED all those damn card ads.

What's in my wallet.. some cold hard cash and a piece of plastic that can access the rest of MY cash digitally.

[cab2g]

I think it'll be healthcare. but only after serious govt regulations hit. Minor stuff like insuring dependents up to age 26 won't make investors wary of healthcare company profits. But things like adding EVERYBODY to a health plan even sick people who were denied coverage will spook investors. I'm not at all saying sick people don't deserve health coverage, but from a pure profit standpoint, there's a reason insurance companies drop people. They're not making a profit! Profit is all investors care about. It's not about morals.

[Brokinarrow]

Originally Posted by Zabo

Bout damn time if it were so. I doubt pensions would pop, the sub prime thing looked to scare 'em into at least getting it stabilized with the future in general going to the fan from a 2009 POV.

With the regulations in place, and the cards turning into card sharks preying on students as it is.. if that bubble goes *pop* I'll welcome it. Drive the rates up and all that. I prefer cold hard cash and my visa check card aka Debit card.

From day one in college, "Only spend what you have.. not what you have in speculation." I HATED all those damn card ads.

What's in my wallet.. some cold hard cash and a piece of plastic that can access the rest of MY cash digitally.

I only have an actual credit card to build credit. Which means I don't use it unless I can immediately pay off the debt.

[RiCorvette]

I don't think the Banks will be foolish enough to be as free and easy with the credit as they were during the Sub-prime mortgage bubble (unless the Feds get involved and muck it up - like they did with the sup-primes). Back then, I was getting several offers a week for Cards. Now, I see one offer a quarter, so I don't think credit cards will do it.

Before the sub-prime bubble, I was amazed at the prices on houses - too good to be true; and it was. I knew there would be a
'market correction' but I never imagined it would fall so far, so fast.

Now, the 'too good to be true' scenario seems to be all this hullabaloo about the obscenely generous Government Employee Pensions
and compensation and the Feds imposing their will in the Health Care Insurance market.

[Ambitious09]

I say credit cards like the people above me or health care. I get credit card offers it seems like evry other week and I know I can't be the only one.

That's how we got in this mess in the first place people spending money they don't have. I have family in banking and I know it's a scam.

I'm not totally for health care but I can see why people think it's a potential bubble.

[Mr Twisty]

My guess would be bath products.

... The big soap bubble of 2013

[derklug]

I think the muni bond market will be the next bubble, when state and local govs start defaulting on bonds.

[2002b4c]

CNBC had a bunch of stock market "experts" on just before New Years. Most think the stock market will go up 10% in the next year. Some think even higher.

Today there was an article in USA Today on smart steps for "saving". #5 was to rebalance your portfolio. Small cap stocks outperformed large caps big time in 2009 and 2010. Article says only 16% of 401K owners rebalance. Missing out on current trends. I have been guilty of this. Didn't touch mine since I bought them. Missed out on some good gains.

Plus your investment strategy should change over time as you head toward retirement.

[2ndgenz28]

A gold bubble would be bad, say if someone hit a mother load.

[mickss]

Higher Education, over the past 20 or so years, average college tuition and fees have risen by 440 percent. Google Higher Education Bubble to get a better understanding of the how and why that this may be one of the next bubble bust.

It will be harder and harder for those who have received student loans to repay those loans as the job markets are ever shrinking or already filled.

[midnighter]

The creditors are strange, I owed $28k in cc debt for about 4 years, I paid it all off in full in October 2010, cancelled 4 cc's keeping only one, but my credit scores went from 712/708/723 down to 706/698/713. I don't have any more cc balances and I am getting punished for it? WTF?

[Zabo]

Originally Posted by mickss

Higher Education, over the past 20 or so years, average college tuition and fees have risen by 440 percent. Google Higher Education Bubble to get a better understanding of the how and why that this may be one of the next bubble bust.

It will be harder and harder for those who have received student loans to repay those loans as the job markets are ever shrinking or already filled.

If this is the case...