Electric Vehicles

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

They actually did do as you suggested. You probably don’t remember because it went over like a wet fart. I’ll toss some names out there. Stop me when you recognize any. Ford Focus EV. Chevrolet Spark EV. Fiat 500e. Nobody cared.

I don't remember any of those as being affordable, practical (range), or attractive compared to these new BYD offerings. Also, the government wasn't full-on driving an agenda back then, with regulations and subsidies to artificially drive demand.


Speaking as consumer, if I'm committed to taking a 50% depreciation loss, I'd digest that loss much easier on a $10k disposable car that will take up less space in the landfill one day. I might even get most or all of it back, ROI on fuel savings. I wouldn't have to drive nearly as much to recoup $5k loss, compared to a $60k+ loss on a Porsche Taycan EV.



Regardless, if you're confident demand is not there for a BDY econo-box BEV offering, then we have nothing to fear. So lets open the floodgates! If consumer demand is there (largely due to high interest rates and tightening credit) then OEMs need to adapt quickly, which I don't see happening, so they'll look to the government to protect them and fix it, which always ends well, or something.

[Rob3D]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

There are no crowds. It was only open for industry media for the first two days. Public open was yesterday.

I believe that was sarcasm.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Capricio

I don't remember any of those as being affordable, practical (range), or attractive compared to these new BYD offerings. Also, the government wasn't full-on driving an agenda back then, with regulations and subsidies to artificially drive demand.


Speaking as consumer, if I'm committed to taking a 50% depreciation loss, I'd digest that loss much easier on a $10k disposable car that will take up less space in the landfill one day. I might even get most or all of it back, ROI on fuel savings. I wouldn't have to drive nearly as much to recoup $5k loss, compared to a $60k+ loss on a Porsche Taycan EV.



Regardless, if you're confident demand is not there for a BDY econo-box BEV offering, then we have nothing to fear. So lets open the floodgates! If consumer demand is there (largely due to high interest rates and tightening credit) then OEMs need to adapt quickly, which I don't see happening, so they'll look to the government to protect them and fix it, which always ends well, or something.

You’re right about that. None of those cars I mentioned were offered at a defensible price. That’s why Tesla started on the other end of the price / value spectrum. It’s easier to bury the cost of the EV technology in an already high priced vehicle, then draw back the price when you are looking to achieve higher volume and have spent time bringing the cost of the technology down. It worked for Tesla and now all the legacy automakers are doing the exact same thing.

***EDIT*** To be fair to the domestic automakers. Those early efforts (Focus EV, Spark EV, Fiat 500e) were never about selling volume or leading the market. They were about proving they could make market ready EVs whenever the need came and also to make just enough vehicles to support fuel economy compliance. Sergio Marchionne (CEO of FCA at the time) was the only one straightforward enough to say “please do not buy one more of these cars than I need to achieve compliance”. What the domestics did not account for was that Tesla was going to make EVs more than relevant and that they would be playing catch-up to a company that didn’t exist 20 years ago.

When BYD does come to the US it won’t be with econoboxes. There is not a market for that in the US and there has not been one for quite a while. Even people who drive econoboxes don’t want econoboxes. They drive them because it’s all they can afford at the time and given the opportunity to move upmarket, they do. BYD (and SAIC, and XPeng and Li Auto) will come with well styled product in the same price ranges as we see in cars in the market today. The BYD Seal is a very competitive product to a Tesla Model 3, in appearance, price, and value for money. It’s just not available here. But it is available in Europe and that’s what qualified it for World COTY consideration.

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

BYD (and SAIC, and XPeng and Li Auto) will come with well styled product in the same price ranges as we see in cars in the market today. The BYD Seal is a very competitive product to a Tesla Model 3, in appearance, price, and value for money. It’s just not available here. But it is available in Europe and that’s what qualified it for World COTY consideration.

If they truly are competing in the same price range, and my $10k EV won't ever make it here, then let them in and allow competition based on features and consumer preferences. But every feature in my newsfeed indicates even (especially!) Tesla is shaking in their boots over Chinese value for the money. Reports keep saying "extinction level event".



If we're past "which government has the best tariffs/subsidies", then let them compete on the merits and drive each other to make better, more competitive, affordable products.


I believe there is still a significant market for econoboxes. Domestic OEMs just yielded the space because it was hard to compete against Corollas, Civics, and other contenders, which are still around. (I admire these little cars that reach 300k+ miles.) They wanted margins, and they got them, for a while. We'll see how players with a high priced product portfolios do in the times ahead, as prices are going up far faster than incomes.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Capricio

If they truly are competing in the same price range, and my $10k EV won't ever make it here, then let them in and allow competition based on features and consumer preferences. But every feature in my newsfeed indicates even (especially!) Tesla is shaking in their boots over Chinese value for the money. Reports keep saying "extinction level event".



If we're past "which government has the best tariffs/subsidies", then let them compete on the merits and drive each other to make better, more competitive, affordable products.


I believe there is still a significant market for econoboxes. Domestic OEMs just yielded the space because it was hard to compete against Corollas, Civics, and other contenders, which are still around. (I admire these little cars that reach 300k+ miles.) They wanted margins, and they got them, for a while. We'll see how players with a high priced product portfolios do in the times ahead, as prices are going up far faster than incomes.

You would have to add Chevrolet Trax and Buick Envista to that list. But none of those are really econoboxes. Some may have started out as such, but they matured beyond that several generations ago. That group of vehicles starts at about $22k and are fairly well equipped at those prices. They tend to be fairly comfortable and easy to live with. Anything below those prices will pretty much be used vehicles. And all of them can be optioned up to high $20s - low $30s.

[90503]

I believe most, if not all, of the examples cited of failed low-cost evs from previous years were likely before the touted full EV transition, the end of ICE production targets, significant rises (unnecessarily) of gasoline prices, EV subsidies from Uncle Sam. When there was a legitimate choice and no near-future end dates for ICE vehicles, especially for affordable ones, then ev sales suffered. Tesla filled the niche of people who liked them, and even then many were predicting Tesla's inevitable demise.

Even still, when EVs were first promoted by GM/gm and others, the promise of EVs was more than gas savings. Compared to ICE, the production savings of no exhaust system, no radiator and cooling systems, no fuel delivery system, no costly certification costs, inherent simplicity of EV design, commonality of platform, etc., etc., all were to result in very affordable MSRPs for EVs on top of gas savings. The "choice" of which to buy would be obvious. I recall even numerous ICE component vendors were given a heads up that their days were numbered due to EV requirements. But it never happened. The costs to the consumer of EVs has gone up and up with any hope of a low cost EV a distant memory. I believe to some extent the new UAW contracts made sure their would be no labor cost savings by workforce reductions that EVs would make possible.

Now BYD offers something that fulfills that promise that US automakers should have delivered but is portrayed as something no-one wants, an Econo-box with no market, unfair to local manufacturers, etc., etc.

The EV stench only gets worse and worse. The ev transition is a totally ununecessay economic disaster and a catastrophe for the consumer.

I hope BYD brings in the lowest cost EV possible. If there is no demand for it, then UAW and automakers should have nothing to worry about.

With current EV values and depreciation in the tank, a disposable low cost EV from China would be the perfect answer. Let the chips fall where they may.

Policies and goals to end ICE will prove a colossal folly for the US.

[silversleeper]

I was just looking online at the BYD Atto 3 and it sells for only $16.5k in China. It gets doubled in price going to the west. Greed somewhere I'd guess.
I would absolutely buy one for that price. $20k I'd still get one. As the price goes past $25k I'd have to consider if I'd rather have a more established brand. As far as what the car delivers vs price it is high. Supposedly has better reliability than many cars like BMW etc.

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by silversleeper

I was just looking online at the BYD Atto 3 and it sells for only $16.5k in China. It gets doubled in price going to the west. Greed somewhere I'd guess.
I would absolutely buy one for that price. $20k I'd still get one. As the price goes past $25k I'd have to consider if I'd rather have a more established brand. As far as what the car delivers vs price it is high. Supposedly has better reliability than many cars like BMW etc.

Looks like the export version will be right-hand-drive only, according to wikipedia.

There doesn't appear to be a good selection of affordable BEV SUVs in your $20-25k range.

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by 90503

Even still, when EVs were first promoted by GM/gm and others, the promise of EVs was more than gas savings. Compared to ICE, the production savings of no exhaust system, no radiator and cooling systems, no fuel delivery system, no costly certification costs, inherent simplicity of EV design, commonality of platform, etc., etc., all were to result in very affordable MSRPs for EVs on top of gas savings. The "choice" of which to buy would be obvious. I recall even numerous ICE component vendors were given a heads up that their days were numbered due to EV requirements. But it never happened. The costs to the consumer of EVs has gone up and up with any hope of a low cost EV a distant memory. I believe to some extent the new UAW contracts made sure their would be no labor cost savings by workforce reductions that EVs would make possible.

Now BYD offers something that fulfills that promise that US automakers should have delivered but is portrayed as something no-one wants, an Econo-box with no market, unfair to local manufacturers, etc., etc.

The EV stench only gets worse and worse. The ev transition is a totally ununecessay economic disaster and a catastrophe for the consumer.

I hope BYD brings in the lowest cost EV possible. If there is no demand for it, then UAW and automakers should have nothing to worry about.

With current EV values and depreciation in the tank, a disposable low cost EV from China would be the perfect answer. Let the chips fall where they may.

Policies and goals to end ICE will prove a colossal folly for the US.

I'm with you, 100%.


Was it a failure to predict the complexity of some of the manufacturing processes, the cost of rare earth minerals, trying to make margins on low demand vehicles, or just the CCP's already dominant position in this market sector? I can't see a western OEM able to come with 20% price difference of a competing/comparable BYD or other Chinese product. So, we'll limp this along with policies/regulations/tariffs/subsidies for another 10-20 years and die a slow death, unfortunately.


If they let BYD in with a low cost option, it could at least drive adoption rates and encourage demand for charging infrastructure, make BEVs more mainstream. Or, if there's no demand, let them fall on their face. But nope... they're gonna limit our choices, make us pay more, and tell us it's good for us (and the planet!).


I think they know they are cornered so they're gonna keep doubling down, and things will start getting crazier from the regulatory side.

[90503]

It was a good affordable idea then that wasn't disparaged. The same idea in an EV today would prove the supposed shame of owning something affordable to be a myth.

[90503]

Originally Posted by Capricio

I'm with you, 100%.


Was it a failure to predict the complexity of some of the manufacturing processes, the cost of rare earth minerals, trying to make margins on low demand vehicles, or just the CCP's already dominant position in this market sector? I can't see a western OEM able to come with 20% price difference of a competing/comparable BYD or other Chinese product. So, we'll limp this along with policies/regulations/tariffs/subsidies for another 10-20 years and die a slow death, unfortunately.


If they let BYD in with a low cost option, it could at least drive adoption rates and encourage demand for charging infrastructure, make BEVs more mainstream. Or, if there's no demand, let them fall on their face. But nope... they're gonna limit our choices, make us pay more, and tell us it's good for us (and the planet!).


I think they know they are cornered so they're gonna keep doubling down, and things will start getting crazier from the regulatory side.

Well put, and a likely scenario.

[90503]

Originally Posted by silversleeper

I was just looking online at the BYD Atto 3 and it sells for only $16.5k in China. It gets doubled in price going to the west. Greed somewhere I'd guess.
I would absolutely buy one for that price. $20k I'd still get one. As the price goes past $25k I'd have to consider if I'd rather have a more established brand. As far as what the car delivers vs price it is high. Supposedly has better reliability than many cars like BMW etc.

I like it. Here's even more, some in the 14K range. All seem to be left-hand drive, I don't see any problem there.

I want to save the planet, not gm. I'll take two 14K BYDs to go, please. lol

https://electrek.co/2024/02/23/byd-l...14k-price-war/

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by 90503

I like it. Here's even more, some in the 14K range. All seem to be left-hand drive, I don't see any problem there.

I want to save the planet, not gm. I'll take two 14K BYDs to go, please. lol

https://electrek.co/2024/02/23/byd-l...14k-price-war/

Put me down for two, as well! If EVs win, we all win!



*Bonus when we get to virtue signal to polluters and talk down to them.

[90503]

Detroit went all-in on big, expensive EVs nobody wants. Here's what the data shows they'd rather buy.
Business Insider
NORA NAUGHTON
March 31, 2024 at 4:58 AM

Demand for electric pickups has dried up.

EV shoppers are more interested in smaller, cheaper vehicles.

A majority of EVs are too expensive for the average shopper.

When the automotive industry started looking toward an electrified future, Detroit automakers decided to throw their hat in the ring with what they do best: Pickup trucks.

The first entrants to the electric-pickup market enjoyed some early success, particularly in the Ford F-150 Lightning. But sudden changes to the electric car shopper demographic mean that for the second time in the last 20 years, Detroit finds itself selling big, expensive cars nobody really wants.

Behemoths like the GMC Hummer EV and Lightning, with price tags that can reach six figures, aren't resonating with the current EV shopper, who prioritizes value and practicality.

Where the Lightning is concerned, the truck's early success doesn't appear to be carrying over past the first round of reservations when the truck first went on sale in 2022.

Ford dealers have started warning that the trucks are piling up on their lots. Starting Monday, Ford will dramatically reduce the workforce at the factory that builds the Lightning, according to the Associated Press, in a sign that demand for the truck may be slowing,

Most EVs are too expensive
Expensive pickup trucks aren't just a Detroit problem. Electric pickup truck pioneer Rivian has also warned of slowing growth, and Elon Musk's Tesla already appears to be offering some purchase incentives for the Cybertruck.

A recent study from car-shopping website Edmunds shows that interest in electric pickup trucks only accounts for only 10% of current EV demand, while demand for electric cars (including wagons) accounts for 43% and demand for SUVs and crossovers comes in second at 42%.

This preference for smaller EVs aligns with the price point most EV customers are shopping in right now, according to the Edmunds data. The most desired price range for an EV right now is between $30,000 and $40,000, with a quarter of customers surveyed by Edmunds looking in that range.

"The electric vehicle market is growing, but consumers have enough reservations about the current options and charging infrastructure challenges to limit more significant growth in the short term," Edmunds analyst Jessica Caldwell wrote in the report.


Only four EVs sell in that range at the moment, according to Edmunds, and none of them are sold by Detroit automakers. The four models under $40,000 are the Mini Hardtop 2 Door, Nissan Leaf, Fiat 500e and Hyundai Kona Electric.

Electric cars tend to be significantly more expensive than their gas-powered counterparts. On average, EVs sold for around $61,700 last year, $14,250 more expensive than the typical price paid for non-electric vehicles, Edmunds said.

Detroit is scrambling
A turn away from big, expensive EVs is a real problem for Detroit, which was hoping to lean on its long-popular and lucrative pickup truck segment to usher in profitability for its electric lineups.

For every electric vehicle sold at a $50,000 price tag, car companies are losing $6,000, according to a recent study from Boston Consulting Group.

While BCG estimates that car companies will be able to close half of this gap by making changes in technology choices and production efficiencies, they won't be able to make up the difference before cheap Chinese imports threaten to squeeze prices even further.

"At some point, it will become untenable for OEMs to lose money on every vehicle they sell," BCG wrote in its report.

Detroit auto execs are scrambling to revise their electric portfolios to match up with the change in demand. Ford CEO Jim Farley said last month the company would be spending more money on mass-market electric vehicles, and a recent report from Bloomberg said the automaker recently delayed an upcoming three-row EV to focus on a trio of $25,000 electric vehicles.

GM is taking another approach, pulling back on EV production as the company plans to bring more hybrids (a segment that has seen demand increase while EV demand wanes) to the North American market later this year.

The Associated Press contributed to this report

Read the original article on Business Insider