[Number 3]

Originally Posted by Norm Peterson

Are any of those cities in the USA? In North America?

I'm not at all comfortable with the concept that people who choose to live in places where the circumstances are significantly different from mine, effectively get to dictate what I am allowed to buy, own, or use. No matter how well-intended their original reasoning might have been


Norm

California as state is very close with the dozen or so states behind them. The CARB mandates will achieve the same thing.

And frankly most companies are tired of paying Tesla huge amounts of money to buy credits in order to sell pickups in California. So they will be developing EV solutions on their own for this reason alone. Effectively Tesla exists to sell credits to other companies. I'm not sure they would have been profitable at all without selling credits.

Then there is the BIGGEST auto market in the world which will ultimately drive the rest of the world. The Chinese government is plowing billions into EV development, even funding companies here in the US. So there is that. Too expensive to develop multiple solutions when the biggest one wants EVs. China is horribly polluted. If you talk to anyone that's lived there it is pretty bad.

So no matter what it's coming. It's just how fast and furious they reach the market.

And in the end, do you want China to be the EV leader? Their government says yes to that question. And if our only remaining domestic OEMs, GM and Ford, don't step into the fray with OUTSTANDING solutions, things will not look good, especially when China can import cars into the US. Hate President Trump or not, but that is the battle front he's trying to win with China.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Mighty Mouce

Coal runs our Power grid. Electric will feed off our power grid. Some politicians now trying to stop coal production. Whats going to run our PG?

Natural Gas, Hydro, Solar, Wind. Depends on where you are and what is available. I grew up in Buffalo, NY. Niagara Falls is 15 minutes away. Guess what’s been powering the grid in that area since before I was born. Now I live in Detroit. DTE and Consumers Power, the two largest power providers in Michigan are both rapidly retiring coal driven plants and rapidly building solar farms. Even though Michigan has nowhere near the sunshine potential of states like Florida, California, Nevada, Arizona, etc.

Originally Posted by MackSteelPrivateEye

1 hour Charge times are not convenient.

The charge time issue is overplayed. When you have a “long-range” EV, the time to “re-fuel” is arguably the amount of time it takes to plug it in. With decades of 5 minute fill-up at the pump, we gas drivers expect the same for electric, but overlook the fact that EVs allow you to wake up most mornings with a “full tank”. More EV range than they will ever use in the course of a day, sometimes a week. You come home, you plug it in, you forget about it. The only time “away from home” charging is an issue is when you are going to drive more miles than the range (200+) in a single trip or day.

Since I retired from GM, I am into my second career as an engine production and installation analyst and forecaster for the world’s most referenced authority on vehicle production and sales forecasts. We forecast the internal combustion engine will be around for decades. We also forecast that EVs will continue to grow in applications and volume. Breaking news.....they can co-exist. We do not see a time in the foreseeable future where EV overtakes ICE or definitely not eliminates it. One of my most requested presentations is titled “Rumors of my Death are Greatly Exaggerated....the Internal Combustion Engine”.

I shake my head at how quickly people assume that EVs are going to be the only available option and that Autonomous Vehicles means everybody’s gonna have their drivers licenses confiscated. Neither technology (EV, AV) are “all or nothing” propositions, but an incredible number of people seem to be acting like they are.

[Number 3]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Natural Gas, Hydro, Solar, Wind. Depends on where you are and what is available. I grew up in Buffalo, NY. Niagara Falls is 15 minutes away. Guess what’s been powering the grid in that area since before I was born. Now I live in Detroit. DTE and Consumers Power, the two largest power providers in Michigan are both rapidly retiring coal driven plants and rapidly building solar farms. Even though Michigan has nowhere near the sunshine potential of states like Florida, California, Nevada, Arizona, etc.


The charge time issue is overplayed. When you have a “long-range” EV, the time to “re-fuel” is arguably the amount of time it takes to plug it in. With decades of 5 minute fill-up at the pump, we gas drivers expect the same for electric, but overlook the fact that EVs allow you to wake up most mornings with a “full tank”. More EV range than they will ever use in the course of a day, sometimes a week. You come home, you plug it in, you forget about it. The only time “away from home” charging is an issue is when you are going to drive more miles than the range (200+) in a single trip or day.

Since I retired from GM, I am into my second career as an engine production and installation forecaster for the world’s most referenced authority on vehicle production and sales forecasts. We forecast the internal combustion engine will be around for decades. We also forecast that EVs will continue to grow in applications and volume. Breaking news.....they can co-exist. We do not see a time in the foreseeable future where EV overtakes ICE or definitely not eliminates it. One of my most requested presentations is titled “Rumors of my Death are Greatly Exaggerated....the Internal Combustion Engine”.

I shake my head at how quickly people assume that EVs are going to be the only available option and that Autonomous Vehicles means everybody’s gonna have their drivers licenses confiscated. Neither technology (EV, AV) are “all or nothing” propositions, but an incredible number of people seem to be acting like they are.

Agree to a point. I have friends that work or retired from Ford and GM that go to work every day working on ICEs.

That being said, they can coexist but not in the same products. GM will not, if they are smart, have and ICE and an EV competing with each other in the same segments. Further GM will not have the resources to develop platforms that can do both.

So yes, fully agree that ICEs will be around for a long time to come, however the choices will begin to make it harder and harder.

Ultimately, as the price of batteries comes down, the cost own and operate an EV will give it a huge advantage with the only downside being time to recharge. And as I've stated there is a ton of $$ being put toward solving that problem. ICEs have reached their pinnacle. Also as I've stated, it now requires huge amounts of money to keep ICEs improving, restating my example of GM's sliding 3 phase cam shaft for incremental improvements. At some point it simply becomes cheaper invest your money in EVs.

So 10 years from now, I would say your ability to buy an ICE will be a used car or a truck.

And if you want to watch the battle front where the money is look to commercial trucks, my industry. Tesla (electric) and Nikola (electric and hydrogen electric) are pushing the boundaries of cost of ownership and operation. Simply not doing a 40 quart oil change is a huge savings to major fleets. And the cost of diesel for a line haul tractor is $50,000 per year or so.

So yes it's tough to beat a 13 or 15L diesel, but the battle has been waged.

[Norm Peterson]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

I shake my head at how quickly people assume that EVs are going to be the only available option and that Autonomous Vehicles means everybody’s gonna have their drivers licenses confiscated. Neither technology (EV, AV) are “all or nothing” propositions, but an incredible number of people seem to be acting like they are.

What people may be basing their fears on is the history of emissions and safety requirements being mandated (even though the specific technologies generally aren't), and the fact that 'deadlines' have been part and parcel of such mandates. The average person has had no input whatsoever to the process.


"Charge time" would only have to leave you stranded once, and it's not like people who aren't into cars as anything other than transportation appliances are any more likely to pay attention to battery state of charge than they are now to their gasoline fuel gauge.


Norm

[Norm Peterson]

Originally Posted by Number 3

California as state is very close with the dozen or so states behind them. The CARB mandates will achieve the same thing.

California - perhaps more accurately a majority of the voters who live there - has created a somewhat oppressive atmosphere under which to live. Perhaps well intended in the beginning, but you do know what the road to hell is paved with . . . I'm trying my best to tiptoe here.

And in the end, do you want China to be the EV leader? Their government says yes to that question.

No.

But I'm even less willing to let China (ultimately, the Chinese government) dictate what my only choices might be. Whether directly (GM and Ford lose the ability to effectively compete) or indirectly (GM and Ford fall into lockstep with the Chinese mfrs).


Norm

[mlee]

Gasoline powered cars are not going anywhere for a very long time. The gas station infrastructure alone mind boggling. We will have dead EV cars everywhere exactly like your cell phone when you forget to put it on charge overnight and then fight battery power all day while trying to use it off and on, while never getting that full charge.

My wild ass prediction is the 7th Gen Camaro line will be 100% electric. What better way to introduce the EV era to an auto maker by turning a poor selling performance car into EV. It would lose some folks, but also bring in a whole different demographic. And they would be 1st with Ford and Dodge playing catch-up.

[Norm Peterson]

Originally Posted by Number 3

So 10 years from now, I would say your ability to buy an ICE will be a used car or a truck.

For more reasons than just the matter of ICE existence, the possibility of building up a Pro-Touring car is not too far off the short list for me. Assuming that I still have one last serious build left in me when the time comes.

And if you want to watch the battle front where the money is look to commercial trucks, my industry. Tesla (electric) and Nikola (electric and hydrogen electric) are pushing the boundaries of cost of ownership and operation. Simply not doing a 40 quart oil change is a huge savings to major fleets. And the cost of diesel for a line haul tractor is $50,000 per year or so.

So yes it's tough to beat a 13 or 15L diesel, but the battle has been waged.

My son and son-in-law both drive Class 8, so I hear things from time to time. Yeah, 100,000 miles a year at single-digit mpgs puts that fuel cost way up there (from a 4-wheeler's point of view, anyway).


Norm

[90503]

Just to add....I live in California and as much as things seem to be anti-fossil fuel, etc., one thing is certain...The state of California will never ban gasoline or oil or ice vehicles due to the fact that the revenue loss would be massive for the state. As much as the philosophy may appear, cash is still king. Taxes on tobacco and alcohol are massive. On the surface they want to get people to stop consuming them. The reality is the revenue they generate secures them to be around forever. Gasoline and vehicle taxes are squandered and wasted on non-car related programs. All the more reason the state is dependent on them and will keep them around as long as possible. Is it hypocritical and counter-intuitive? Absolutely, and why it will never go away.

[Petrol Head]

Originally Posted by mlee

Gasoline powered cars are not going anywhere for a very long time. The gas station infrastructure alone mind boggling. We will have dead EV cars everywhere exactly like your cell phone when you forget to put it on charge overnight and then fight battery power all day while trying to use it off and on, while never getting that full charge.

My wild ass prediction is the 7th Gen Camaro line will be 100% electric. What better way to introduce the EV era to an auto maker by turning a poor selling performance car into EV. It would lose some folks, but also bring in a whole different demographic. And they would be 1st with Ford and Dodge playing catch-up.

If the Camaro goes 100% electric that essentially eliminates the customer base of the Camaro to begin with. Lord knows I’d never buy one, and I seriously doubt anyone on this forum would. The Camaro culture today is exactly the same as it was in 1967. People don’t buy Camaros as a commuter car. They’re muscle car enthusiasts. Muscle cars require noisy internal combustion engines. Anyone who tries to make the notion that an electric motor and batteries are just as much of a muscle car as a gas engine just simply don’t get it.

It’s angering that this discussion is even going on. I need a beer.

[mlee]

Originally Posted by Petrol Head

If the Camaro goes 100% electric that essentially eliminates the customer base of the Camaro to begin with. Lord knows I’d never buy one, and I seriously doubt anyone on this forum would. The Camaro culture today is exactly the same as it was in 1967. People don’t buy Camaros as a commuter car. They’re muscle car enthusiasts. Muscle cars require noisy internal combustion engines. Anyone who tries to make the notion that an electric motor and batteries are just as much of a muscle car as a gas engine just simply don’t get it.

It’s angering that this discussion is even going on. I need a beer.

I mentioned it would lose people, but I certainly wouldn't be one of them IF it had the performance to kick ass on everything we've seen so far in the muscle car world. Just my prediction, not my wishes.

You heard it here first.

[Martinjlm]

Just a few fun-facts....

The original California Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate in 1990 called for an escalating percentage of vehicles sold in California to be Zero Emissions. Only two ways to do that. Battery Electric (BEV) and Fuel Cells (FCEV). The regulation called for 2% by 1998, 5% by 2001, and 10% by 2003. Clearly that didn’t happen. The “mandate” has been revised multiple times to come closer to resembling reality.

Hybrids have been in the US since 1997 and EVs (at any reasonable volume) since 2010. The current sales rate of hybrid + EV combined in the US? A little under 2%. For California the rate for BEV stands somewhere around 3.5 - 4%. I’d have to look up the rate for hybrids and I’m too lazy to do that right this moment. Compare that 3.5 - 4% in 2019 to the original mandate. The current mandate calls for 15% ZEV by 2025. That ain’t gonna happen.

My company (IHS Markit) currently projects that by 2025, BEV will be around 7% of vehicles manufactured in North America. That’s manufactured, not sold, but it’s a pretty good surrogate. Various types of hybrids will make up another 20%. So if you do the math, about 73% will be ICE. Europe and China will both be in the 12 - 15% range for BEV and 43 - 52% range for hybrids and 36 - 42% range for ICE.

The numbers don’t grow wildly between 2025 - 30, so I won’t bore you all with those numbers.

In order for BEV to overtake ICE in the 2025 - 30 timeframe would require a shift in vehicle manufacturing capacity of a magnitude that has never been seen. Think back to the late ‘70s early ‘80s when there was a massive shift from Body on Frame, RWD cars to Body Frame Integral FWD cars. The shift from current car manufacturing process to dedicated BEV skateboard based vehicle processes would dwarf those efforts and the capital spending required to pull it off. Then there’s battery capacity. Today, BEVs are 2 - 3% of global vehicle manufacture. There is battery capacity available to cover that, no problem. But a 30-fold increase? Not gonna happen overnight. Some of the materials required for battery manufacture with today’s battery technology require some damn near medieval mining processes <cough> child labor <cough>. It will be interesting to see how the world reacts to ramping up those techniques to meet increased demand of cobalt and lithium. Then there’s the fact that next gen battery technology might not require those raw materials, but a different set of raw materials. So you ramp up mining of current required materials, then shut that down and ramp up harvesting of other raw materials while not disrupting manufacturing volume? Not likely.

These are just a few of the factors that has us taking a much more tempered approach to growth of electric vehicles. They are here. More are coming. They will hold a significant, but minority position in the global automotive landscape.

[Gunkk]

Originally Posted by BMR Sales

I know one person who has a Tesla and I know hundreds of people that you will have to pry the keys of their gas cars out of their hands.

Especially when a hurricane is near...

[mlee]

Originally Posted by Gunkk

Especially when a hurricane is near...

...and all the gas stations are bone dry

[Gunkk]

Originally Posted by mlee

...and all the gas stations are bone dry

And you have a 500+ mile evacuation in stop and go traffic on a highway in 100F ambient with the AC on in your BEV and you need to find a charging station that’s not got a 250 car long line waiting what, 60 (?) hours for a 30+ minute charge supervised by armed police to keep people from killing each other in a panic as the rain bands roll in...

You cannot throw a pair of 5 gallon jerry cans full of “charge” in the trunk of your BEV to extend its range.

After the storm? Oh yeah, no power anywhere for days/weeks. So forget charging your BEV to go get food or ice or water...

Sorry, BEVs might sound great in San Fran. But they are not for everyone everywhere. Hybrids are another story, like a 500mi range Prius with 10gals of gas in jerries can go 1000mi without seeing a gas station.