Electric Vehicles

[Wyzz Kydd]

I’ve got to sign off for the foreseeable future, real life is calling with bad things that take precedence. Take care all, even my British not-friend. Kiss your loved ones, you never know how much time they have.

[RLHMARINES]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

My words have always stated FORECAST and I often (too often?) refer to the FORECASTS that my company produces and supplies to multiple industries, companies, and governments.

Prediction is your word. Forecast is my word. I don’t predict, I forecast.

You are interpreting information from an independent researcher. I am talking to people actively involved in transforming the infrastructure. I assure you they aren’t tracking to Bryce’s 282 year timeline. You believe your guy, I’ll keep talking to my folks .

As someone else pointed out in this thread, you are speaking with authority about EVs and charging even though you have not had any firsthand experience with either. I have driven almost every EV currently available for sale in the US. I am in constant conversation with EV car companies (that’s how I drive their cars), EV charger manufacturers, utilities, government agencies, and battery suppliers. My opinions and forecasts are based on the data available through my company and the many interactions I have with people who are actually planning the future.

At the end of the day, I am not trying to convince anybody of anything. What I am trying to do is provide facts to help those in this thread who have an interest in knowing what is going on and why. Anybody reading what I post can and should take it in and review it through their own filters and draw their own conclusions.

Thanks James for the insight of what future plans and developments may look like from the industry as it relates to us as a collective on the EV future. I love geeking out on anything automotive.

I'm an enthusiast at heart but I plan to hopefully purchase an EV of some kind before I retire in a few years for the family as I plan to be an early adopter as long as I can afford one.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Wyzz Kydd

I’ve got to sign off for the foreseeable future, real life is calling with bad things that take precedence. Take care all, even my British not-friend. Kiss your loved ones, you never know how much time they have.

Wish you well buddy. You’re absolutely right about real life taking precedence. On that we can agree.

[genxer]

Catching up a lot. Cost and risks.

Why on earth is there 4 transverse front motor platforms? It looks like a bad overspend. How can vehicles with cheap constants of, unibody, 4 decades w/ strut front suspensions and 2+ decades w/ rear PTO awd be a development burden?

Why would a fwd EV (new)newBlazer exist? Are these not premium vehicles for the not super affluent? A Bev3 Ultium skeptic would question if it is investor spin for unavoidably different vehicles, or conversely too similar and costly for less pricey ('Nox & smaller) segments.

Is cell R&D not factored in as an ongoing cost?

The housing environment doesn't change quickly. Why would small-time landlords want to install chargers? Or anyone with mostly short drives? Bolt has a long amortization from a Mirage and, as linked, some do pay more for kWh than fuel.

It is still a high inflation time. EVs are much more mineral dependent, and have yet to grab the big chunk of market share. Ford admitted the Mach-E profits were inflation squeezed already. Gov deficit spending could fan inflation, while incentives only assist the upper middle class. Incentives toward EV that is heralded as a market inevitability, Why?

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by genxer

Catching up a lot. Cost and risks.

Why on earth is there 4 transverse front motor platforms? It looks like a bad overspend. How can vehicles with cheap constants of, unibody, 4 decades w/ strut front suspensions and 2+ decades w/ rear PTO awd be a development burden?

Not sure what company you are referring to.

Originally Posted by genxer

Why would a fwd EV (new)newBlazer exist?. Are these not premium vehicles for the not super affluent? A Bev3 Ultium skeptic would question if it is investor spin for unavoidably different vehicles, or conversely too similar and costly for less pricey ('Nox & smaller) segments.

In many snowier regions, FWD is a better bad weather traction option than RWD. AWD is probably optimal, but not everyone wants to drop $2k extra because they live in a place where snow has a big impact on drivability. Personally, I have a FWD SRX because I don’t need AWD to navigate the snow. If SRX was a RWD vehicle (1st Gen was) I would have to have AWD. In fact, for a while we were focused on getting a Cadillac Lyriq, but the first full year is RWD only. Not for me driving year round in Detroit. We were going to wait for AWD until I landed on just getting the Blazer EV SS.

Originally Posted by genxer

Is cell R&D not factored in as an ongoing cost?

It is for the battery manufacturer. Sometimes the battery manufacturer is the vehicle OEM. GM/Ultium as an example. Most times they are different companies. Stellantis / Samsung SDI is an example. In such cases it’s part of the part purchase price for the vehicle manufacturer.

Originally Posted by genxer

The housing environment doesn't change quickly. Why would small-time landlords want to install chargers? Or anyone with mostly short drives? Bolt has a long amortization from a Mirage and, as linked, some do pay more for kWh than fuel.

A lot of moving parts to this one and a lot of approaches to solutions. Still too early to say who/what wins out. But to answer the direct question, Why would small-time landlords want to install chargers? here is a scenario that is being pursued. There is a company whose name escapes me at the moment that is working with landlords in several cities to install curbside charging in front of rental properties. Here’s how it works:

• Company does all the work to install the chargers. That includes getting permits, contracting the installation and connecting the property electrical system to the charger.
• The company sets up the payment system to collect from people who use the charger.
• The charger draws power from the rental property power line, primarily during off-peak times and stores the energy to and underground battery.
• Customers (could be the renter, could be a random EV driver that happens to park there), uses and pays for charging.
• The company receives the payment, pays the power company for the energy drawn (at low off-peak prices).
• The company splits the difference (profit) with the rental property owner.

Originally Posted by genxer

It is still a high inflation time. EVs are much more mineral dependent, and have yet to grab the big chunk of market share. Ford admitted the Mach-E profits were inflation squeezed already. Gov deficit spending could fan inflation, while incentives only assist the upper middle class. Incentives toward EV that is heralded as a market inevitability, Why?

EVs are more mineral dependent. No getting around that, it’s a simple fact. Managing it is the big deal. As far as EVs not yet grabbing the chunk of the market, it’s because they are not all available yet. Can’t sell what you can’t touch. Even most of the vehicles that are available now are only available in limited quantities or with limited trims and options until the production lines are in full swing. Watching GM commercials you would think that their lots are overflowing with EVs. Fact of the matter is the only GM EVs you can actually buy today are Bolt EV, Bolt EUV, Hummer EV, and Lyriq. Hummer and Lyriq are still baby-stepping their way through back orders. So is Ford Lightning. Mach E is pretty much up to full assembly line capacity and it outsells Mustang coupe every month. Not the same customer, but still very telling in terms of popularity of EV.

As far as the IRA incentives, they are not focused on upper middle class. They are focused on middle class and below. When we eventually get our Blazer EV SS we will probably not qualify for the incentive because our household income will exceed the IRA max for household income. Newsflash… We are not super-affluent. Probably on the lower end of upper middle class. The car will qualify for incentives but we won’t qualify because of income.

The main purpose of the incentives is to motivate manufacturers to make the cars and batteries in the US, or at least in North America and to shift the market dynamics of the minerals sourcing to include the US and/or free trade partners and push back on Chinese sourcing.

Question#1 is “Where is the vehicle made”?
Question#2 is “Where is the battery made”?.

If either of those answers is anywhere but North America (jobs), no soup for you. Vehicle doesn’t qualify. The next question is

Question#3 “What is the price of the vehicle?” If it’s a car more than $55,000 there’s no need to go any further. Doesn’t qualify. If it’s a truck or SUV over $80,000 there’s no need to go any further. Doesn’t qualify. This is to stop providing incentives for $100k Lucid Air, Tesla Plaid, and Hummer EV.

The next question is
Question#4 “What is your household income from the AGI line on your tax return? If it’s more than $150k for an individual, $225k for a head of household, or $300k for a family filing a joint return (solidly middle class, not upper middle) there is no need to go any further. The car may qualify, but you don’t.

[snizzle]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

As far as the IRA incentives, they are not focused on upper middle class. They are focused on middle class and below. When we eventually get our Blazer EV SS we will probably not qualify for the incentive because our household income will exceed the IRA max for household income. Newsflash… We are not super-affluent. Probably on the lower end of upper middle class. The car will qualify for incentives but we won’t qualify because of income.

Not super-affluent, just regular affluent

I'm assuming you have a reservation. Have you heard anything? It's been radio silence for me. I bet we'll see it pushed back with materials and production delays.

[genxer]

Martinjlm,

So, the metal metal chair in a parallel parking spot may eventually become a nation wide oddity

I still think of 6 figures as upper middle, maybe that's pre-stagflation thinking.

I was referring to Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Chi. Fwd vehicles that have engine weight in front of the front axle that helps standing traction.

Before the financial crisis, people knew not to overpay for front drive. This seems the reverse in some ways. It's still a strategy gamble. I think GM wants incentives to support their market for very premium EVs, and a position that evokes a laptop or cell phone make. But how many people do you know that went into last year with an Eclair or Gingerbread phone? The average auto is lasting 12-ish years anymore. That type of EV just doesn't seem great for the budget minded.

Incentives still seem a better fit for erevs and plug-ins only. Because it helps the extra production costs, and has a much lighter resource need, gives flexibilty of source.

Screw that, I'd much rather see incentives for a US-made, dogleg 1st, 7-speed stick transmission for a real next gen & friends.

Is your 15 mpg number from gas or flex fuel?

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by genxer

Martinjlm,

So, the metal metal chair in a parallel parking spot may eventually become a nation wide oddity

I still think of 6 figures as upper middle, maybe that's pre-stagflation thinking.

I was referring to Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Chi. Fwd vehicles that have engine weight in front of the front axle that helps standing traction.

That helps clarify. Thanks. I understand the 6 fwd configurations point better. Now I’m totally flummoxed on the metal metal chair thing.

Originally Posted by genxer

Before the financial crisis, people knew not to overpay for front drive. This seems the reverse in some ways. It's still a strategy gamble. I think GM wants incentives to support their market for very premium EVs, and a position that evokes a laptop or cell phone make. But how many people do you know that went into last year with an Eclair or Gingerbread phone? The average auto is lasting 12-ish years anymore. That type of EV just doesn't seem great for the budget minded.

I think you’re missing the point on the incentives. They do not help the automakers with pricing. If anything, they force the automakers to REDUCE prices to fit under the $55,000 and $80,000 upper limits. Tesla reduced prices on all of their Model 3 and Model Y trims so that they would fit inside the IRA qualifications. That way they can sell more cars to people who qualify for the incentive. The car companies do not receive a dime of the incentives. Premium vehicles, like fully loaded Lyriq, won’t qualify because of price. Most Rivian vehicles will not qualify because of price.

As for the Eclair / Gingerbread reference… I’m guessing this is Android vernacular. I’m not at all conversant in Android speak.

Originally Posted by genxer

Incentives still seem a better fit for erevs and plug-ins only. Because it helps the extra production costs, and has a much lighter resource need, gives flexibilty of source.

Incentives can’t help with production costs. Incentives go to the buyer, not the manufacturer.

Originally Posted by genxer

Screw that, I'd much rather see incentives for a US-made, dogleg 1st, 7-speed stick transmission for a real next gen & friends.

Is your 15 mpg number from gas or flex fuel?

FlexFuel. E85 unless I’m traveling someplace where E85 is unavailable.

[genxer]

I had wondered if your trips were that high leverage on time, to drive at 15 mpg gas.

Typo. Metal folding chair. To hold one's parking place in reserve, particularly after shoveling. Common in the very small neighborboods of the Pittsburgh area.

12 year old phone. Do you know anyone that used them that old? Old tech hardware lags, crashes, and app support ends. Old cars need to work to have value.

There's probably another EV level between what a Lyriq is, what a cheaper Bolt could be, what a Model 3 is.

I don't mind seeing premium stuff excel. Muscle Cars and Trucks had an article reporting the Hummer had declined offering a dual port charging capability. If they would carry that idea downmarket by trimming other specs, and there was a network for it?

Maybe the Ultium battery module idea makes dual charging more possible than Tesla building for battery cost with big 4680 cells. Ford building Li iron phosphate cells is also interesting.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by genxer

I had wondered if your trips were that high leverage on time, to drive at 15 mpg gas.

Typo. Metal folding chair. To hold one's parking place in reserve, particularly after shoveling. Common in the very small neighborboods of the Pittsburgh area.

12 year old phone. Do you know anyone that used them that old? Old tech hardware lags, crashes, and app support ends. Old cars need to work to have value.

There's probably another EV level between what a Lyriq is, what a cheaper Bolt could be, what a Model 3 is.

I don't mind seeing premium stuff excel. Muscle Cars and Trucks had an article reporting the Hummer had declined offering a dual port charging capability. If they would carry that idea downmarket by trimming other specs, and there was a network for it?

Maybe the Ultium battery module idea makes dual charging more possible than Tesla building for battery cost with big 4680 cells. Ford building Li iron phosphate cells is also interesting.

There is a lot coming in this area. Automakers have focused on the highest priced products first. Better chance of recovering costs. Right now Cadillac has Lyriq (mid $60k - high $80k trims) and Celestiq (if you gotta ask you can't afford it. $300+k). This year they are announcing (3) new products. Probably (2) below Lyriq and maybe one above. They have already trademarked the names Ascendiq, Optiq, and Symboliq, along with Vistiq, Lumistiq, and Escalade IQL.

Last week I got to drive the Genesis GV60. It ranges $59 - 69k. Chevrolet is bringing the Equinox EV (starting at $30k) and the Blazer EV (low $40s - mid $60s) and the Mustang Mach E is already available in the low $40s - mid $50s range.

[FarmerFran]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

There is a lot coming in this area. Automakers have focused on the highest priced products first. Better chance of recovering costs. Right now Cadillac has Lyriq (mid $60k - high $80k trims) and Celestiq (if you gotta ask you can't afford it. $300+k). This year they are announcing (3) new products. Probably (2) below Lyriq and maybe one above. They have already trademarked the names Ascendiq, Optiq, and Symboliq, along with Vistiq, Lumistiq, and Escalade IQL.

Last week I got to drive the Genesis GV60. It ranges $59 - 69k. Chevrolet is bringing the Equinox EV (starting at $30k) and the Blazer EV (low $40s - mid $60s) and the Mustang Mach E is already available in the low $40s - mid $50s range.

Looks like I will be walking to work soon

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by FarmerFran

Looks like I will be walking to work soon

Don’t see why. There will be ICE vehicles around at least up until I take up residence in an ornate urn. And that ain’t happening for quite a while if I get my way.

[Windycity]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Why would small-time landlords want to install chargers?[/b] here is a scenario that is being pursued. There is a company whose name escapes me at the moment that is working with landlords in several cities to install curbside charging in front of rental properties. Here’s how it works:

• Company does all the work to install the chargers. That includes getting permits, contracting the installation and connecting the property electrical system to the charger.
• The company sets up the payment system to collect from people who use the charger.
• The charger draws power from the rental property power line, primarily during off-peak times and stores the energy to and underground battery.
• Customers (could be the renter, could be a random EV driver that happens to park there), uses and pays for charging.
• The company receives the payment, pays the power company for the energy drawn (at low off-peak prices).
• The company splits the difference (profit) with the rental property owner.

Pretty much exactly how laundry machines work in apartments and rental units.

The building owner provides the space, machine owner provides the machine and maintenance on them and they split the money


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[FarmerFran]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Don’t see why. There will be ICE vehicles around at least up until I take up residence in an ornate urn. And that ain’t happening for quite a while if I get my way.

As long as they don't start hitting 60k also