How bad is the Gulf oil situation? Check out this article...

[Steve Dallas]

Frankly, I think that most people don't really know how serious this spill is. I am not an environmentalist, and I support offshore drilling.

I just read an article that seems to be very in-depth and unbiased in what's going on. In fact, it is the best write up I've seen on what's really going on.

The article comes to the conclusion that it is now a race between how fast they can drill relief wells and how soon the well itself is going to collapse. The writer is fairly certain the collapse of the well is a given, and is almost certainly going to happen before any relief wells are drilled.

I highly recommend reading the article which is long, but informative. And pretty scary.

[2001ragtop]

hope they fix the leak soon.

[Steve Dallas]

Originally Posted by 2001ragtop

Thank you for posting that. It keeps the situation in perspective. I refuse to accept that this situation won't be solved at least within this same year. (i.e. leak stopped, via a working option like a nuke or even building 6 relief wells.). You're right though that tempting mother nature is dangerous.

The problem is, according to that article...that it is quite likely the BOP (wellhead, and structure going into the oil reservoir) will collapse before the relief wells will be finished, and that will be catastrophic. The author of the article had a lot of good points as to this. It's really kind of scary because he's pretty much saying (if I read it right) that if the BOP collapses, pretty much all of the oil they were drilling to will end up in the ocean...and that's a LOT of oil.

[Steve Dallas]

From the article:

Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly? ...it won't be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov't must be well aware too, they just are not telling us.

We need to prepare for the possibility of this blow out sending more oil into the gulf per week then what we already have now, because that is what a collapse of the system will cause. All the collection efforts that have captured oil will be erased in short order. The magnitude of this disaster will increase exponentially by the time we can do anything to halt it and our odds of actually even being able to halt it will go down.

What he's saying is that we will get more oil in the gulf PER WEEK than what's been put into the gulf so far during the last 2 months.

[Russo]

that was the deepest well drilled on the planet according to experts in the area... when you get to 40k feet depths, the pressure is multiplied many times over what the conventional equipment allows... lets hope we can get it under control before anything else happens... my community relies on the oilfield and i can assure that there is more oil in the ground that even after 20 relief wells drawing at whatever max is, it won't "dry" the well... if they could get the oil out faster they would already be doing it.. pray for the 11 that died saving the other workers, our community, the animals affected, enviroment, and the surrounding areas... more than Louisiana is being hurt by this, and although the price at the pump may not be going up this second, i can promiss you that gas will swiftly jump to $5.00+/gal soon... the president just put a halt to all offshore drilling, thats 20-30k jobs on hold...

[diddiyo]

i wonder how many people that yelled "drill baby drill" two years ago are now down there cleaning up the beaches. pretty sure i know the answer.

[Steve Dallas]

I don't disagree that we should keep drilling...

Read the article though, because what he's saying is that he feels that this well IS going to collapse, and that the relief wells we're drilling won't be finished before that happens.

And, when it collapses, Imagine 4-5 Exxon Valdez' per week dumping into the gulf...in a way that CANNOT be captured.

He's saying the goverment and BP both know this is likely to happen, but are afraid to let the public know.

[CamaroSpike23]

Originally Posted by Steve Dallas

He's saying the goverment and BP both know this is likely to happen, but are afraid to let the public know.

just like any potential mass-effect disaster scenario. its better to not let the public know cus things will get even more out of hand.

[2ndgenz28]

If Gov inspectors in that part of the industry were as prevelant as FDA meat inspectors, it would not be a problem.

But only in the meat industry do we have people watching 24/7 365 to protect our "health"

No one can cut corners if there are checks n balances put in place.
Drilling is safe if you don't cut corners.

Watched the history channel show about meat once, even the lone butcher who take his killing truck to people house to slaughter 1 cow, a FDA meat inspector must be on hand to watch.

On a off shore rig, there should be about 20+ of them doing a similar job.

Its is all on BP but anyone with a brain knows you must have Gov inspectors around to keep folks honest.

We got safe meat, but at nuclear power plants and oil drinning and refining plants, no one is watching to keep them honest like we do for meat.


I include nuke as we got one local, twice now the doam or cap on it has been eaten nearly through by "leaking" acid, and we don't find out till it almost killed everyone and they had to tell somone. Not like on day 2 when it started, but 2 days before it might have blown up.


Gov inspectors aren't doing their job anymore.

[DGthe3]

Originally Posted by 2ndgenz28

If Gov inspectors in that part of the industry were as prevelant as FDA meat inspectors, it would not be a problem.

But only in the meat industry do we have people watching 24/7 365 to protect our "health"

No one can cut corners if there are checks n balances put in place.
Drilling is safe if you don't cut corners.

Watched the history channel show about meat once, even the lone butcher who take his killing truck to people house to slaughter 1 cow, a FDA meat inspector must be on hand to watch.

On a off shore rig, there should be about 20+ of them doing a similar job.

Its is all on BP but anyone with a brain knows you must have Gov inspectors around to keep folks honest.

We got safe meat, but at nuclear power plants and oil drinning and refining plants, no one is watching to keep them honest like we do for meat.


I include nuke as we got one local, twice now the doam or cap on it has been eaten nearly through by "leaking" acid, and we don't find out till it almost killed everyone and they had to tell somone. Not like on day 2 when it started, but 2 days before it might have blown up.


Gov inspectors aren't doing their job anymore.

depends where the ship (yes, mobile offshore platforms are 'ships') is flagged from. Different countries, somehow, have different inspection protocols (somehow) when off the US coastline.

And yeah, the regulators weren't doing that good of a job when several major oil corporations include protecting Walruses in their environmental plans (Walruses haven't existed in the Gulf of Mexico for millions of years). Or when they list a dead guy as a consulted expert. Or when all the plans are practically identical, regardless of company or drill site. Someone should have clued in. And these things have been happening for years. It isn't the fault of any particular administration or party: there is enough blame for everyone.

[2001ragtop]

hope they fix the leak soon.

[2ndgenz28]

Originally Posted by DGthe3

It isn't the fault of any particular administration or party: there is enough blame for everyone.

No its the status quo for Gov jobs for the last 200 years, high pay and bennfits with very little chance of ever getting fired. aka easy street

[PQ]

Originally Posted by 2001ragtop

I think one positive sign is the USA always has (1) manufactured crisis every year. Last year it was swine flu shots. I'm not worried about any oil spill. If it was as bad as everyone says pensacola beach would be soaked with oil and it's not. (notice you never see two different crises at the same time.) No ones allowed to take any pictures at Grand Isle, LA. Whatever they're doing, they will probably be "done" in August. This just looks like another stupid distraction. It's annoying. It's not believable. And this is a duplicate of an event that happened in 1979 in that area. This will blow over by September. It's just another scripted event. I'm going to go relax now.

sidenote: this is just to cut back on local drilling. this is the oldest trick in the book. no one should be worried about this "spill". always using scare tactics. every single year. its so annoying. OH NO THE SKY IS FALLING. stop the offshore drilling operations fast. quick pass that energy reform legislation! yay for us.

Don't all of us fall for this all at once. They already proved in '79 that a devasting gulf oil leak wont really do that much damage and will heal itself. that's why they aren't worried about it.

[Dakota Kid]

Originally Posted by 2001ragtop

I think one positive sign is the USA always has (1) manufactured crisis every year. Last year it was swine flu shots. I'm not worried about any oil spill. If it was as bad as everyone says pensacola beach would be soaked with oil and it's not. (notice you never see two different crises at the same time.) No ones allowed to take any pictures at Grand Isle, LA. Whatever they're doing, they will probably be "done" in August. This just looks like another stupid distraction. It's annoying. It's not believable. And this is a duplicate of an event that happened in 1979 in that area. This will blow over by September. It's just another scripted event. I'm going to go relax now.

sidenote: this is just to cut back on local drilling. this is the oldest trick in the book. no one should be worried about this "spill". always using scare tactics. every single year. its so annoying. OH NO THE SKY IS FALLING. stop the offshore drilling operations fast. quick pass that energy reform legislation! yay for us.

Don't all of us fall for this all at once. They already proved in '79 that a devasting gulf oil leak wont really do that much damage and will heal itself. that's why they aren't worried about it.