GM #2?

[derklug]

Recently a financial analyst, who has a show on cable and often seems less than sane, predicted Ford would overtake GM to become the leading US automaker. I don't buy it, even being a Ford guy, as I think GM is coming back, and has a large fanbase. What are the bets here? Where will $4.00 gas leave the domestic automakers?

[FenwickHockey65]

It'll be a tight race, that's for sure. I believe Ford has several new products coming sooner than GM, but GM has a LOT of stuff coming for the 2012/2013 model years.

As for $4 gas, Ford has the Fiesta, 2012 Focus, and Focus EV, GM has the Sonic, Cruze, and Volt. I'd say both automakers have a fairly well-rounded lineup of gas friendly vehicles.

[DGthe3]

Ford would have to gain ~10% more sales than GM, which is going to be very tough (unless GM 'Toyotas' and takes a massive PR hit). For 2010, GM's core brands rose 21% in sales while Ford Motor Company went up 19%. Plus, Ford is killing Mercury, which accounted for ~5% of their sales (and only a portion of buyers will stay within FoMoCo, the rest will switch to competing brands much like Pontiac and Saturn buyers did). So they'd have even more ground to make up. On top of that, there is talk within the industry that Ford will be hit with some UAW strikes in the near future, with workers demanding that some of their benefits they gave up during the crisis be returned (the UAW is not allowed to strike against GM or Chrysler for the time being, due to their bankruptcies).

All in all, its a pretty tall order. Chances are slim to nill that it will happen within the next year. And in the long term, there are more things working against Ford than there are against GM, making the prospects lower.

[Xanthos]

Originally Posted by DGthe3

Ford would have to gain ~10% more sales than GM, which is going to be very tough (unless GM 'Toyotas' and takes a massive PR hit). For 2010, GM's core brands rose 21% in sales while Ford Motor Company went up 19%. Plus, Ford is killing Mercury, which accounted for ~5% of their sales (and only a portion of buyers will stay within FoMoCo, the rest will switch to competing brands much like Pontiac and Saturn buyers did). So they'd have even more ground to make up. On top of that, there is talk within the industry that Ford will be hit with some UAW strikes in the near future, with workers demanding that some of their benefits they gave up during the crisis be returned (the UAW is not allowed to strike against GM or Chrysler for the time being, due to their bankruptcies).

All in all, its a pretty tall order. Chances are slim to nill that it will happen within the next year. And in the long term, there are more things working against Ford than there are against GM, making the prospects lower.

I couldn't have said it better myself.
- X

[Mr. Wyndham]

Originally Posted by DGthe3

Ford would have to gain ~10% more sales than GM, which is going to be very tough (unless GM 'Toyotas' and takes a massive PR hit). For 2010, GM's core brands rose 21% in sales while Ford Motor Company went up 19%. Plus, Ford is killing Mercury, which accounted for ~5% of their sales (and only a portion of buyers will stay within FoMoCo, the rest will switch to competing brands much like Pontiac and Saturn buyers did). So they'd have even more ground to make up. On top of that, there is talk within the industry that Ford will be hit with some UAW strikes in the near future, with workers demanding that some of their benefits they gave up during the crisis be returned (the UAW is not allowed to strike against GM or Chrysler for the time being, due to their bankruptcies).

All in all, its a pretty tall order. Chances are slim to nill that it will happen within the next year. And in the long term, there are more things working against Ford than there are against GM, making the prospects lower.

I had a message typed up and ready to post, but I scrapped it in favor of this. Well said!!

I don't think Ford will be losing very much market share, if any...but they certainly won't be able to overtake GM anytime soon.

[DGthe3]

I thought I included it in my post, but I guess I took it out at some point ... but I'd like to add this:

They could possibly overtake GM in the near term, say in 2-3 years then fall behind again shortly there after. Its unlikely but more likely than happening in 2011, or ~5 years from now.

[Mr. Wyndham]

GM is also not losing market share. Which is something that would need to happen for any of the automakers to take the #1 spot in the US.

[8cd03gro]

I doubt it very much, but it's possible. Honestly, it all depends on what the economy does in the next few years.

[DGthe3]

Originally Posted by Dragoneye

GM is also not losing market share. Which is something that would need to happen for any of the automakers to take the #1 spot in the US.

Not necessarily ... GM could maintain its market share while Ford grows theirs at the expense of other automakers like Honda and Toyota. But if GM grows at all, then Ford is S.O.L for overtaking them.

[Mr. Wyndham]

Originally Posted by DGthe3

Not necessarily ... GM could maintain its market share while Ford grows theirs at the expense of other automakers like Honda and Toyota. But if GM grows at all, then Ford is S.O.L for overtaking them.

Agreed.

[LOWDOWN]

Market Share, 2010 vs. 2009:

http://www.autonews.com/assets/PDF/CA7220714.PDF

IF GM's slide has in fact stabilized (they've lost approx. 1% MS per year since '99, and lost .8% this past year), then the sales crown will continue to be theirs.

As to "coming product", CAFE '16 looms, when all manner of new/fresh product will be necessary by ALL manufacturers. Who does what, in the meantime, and when, will pave the way to Market Share riche$...

[DGthe3]

Originally Posted by LOWDOWN

Market Share, 2010 vs. 2009:

http://www.autonews.com/assets/PDF/CA7220714.PDF

IF GM's slide has in fact stabilized (they've lost approx. 1% MS per year since '99, and lost .8% this past year), then the sales crown will continue to be theirs.

As to "coming product", CAFE '16 looms, when all manner of new/fresh product will be necessary by ALL manufacturers. Who does what, in the meantime, and when, will pave the way to Market Share riche$...

One thing to keep in mind when looking at the loss of market share for GM, at least couple years, is how much can be attributed to the loss of half their brands in the US. In 2007 Hummer, Pontiac, Saab, and Saturn accounted for about 690k units. For 2010 it was under 20k, and 2011 will probably be less than 1000 (all these recent sales are from new cars just sitting on lots). That is a massive chunk of the drop from 3.9M in '07 down to 2.2M for 2010, not all of it obviously, but it was a one time deal and nothing like it will be happening again.

[Number 3]

Originally Posted by FenwickHockey65

It'll be a tight race, that's for sure. I believe Ford has several new products coming sooner than GM, but GM has a LOT of stuff coming for the 2012/2013 model years.

As for $4 gas, Ford has the Fiesta, 2012 Focus, and Focus EV, GM has the Sonic, Cruze, and Volt. I'd say both automakers have a fairly well-rounded lineup of gas friendly vehicles.

Fen, you forgot the Verano. Not to mention Kuga vs. Equinox in the small SUVs.

Also remember, Ford just killed Mercury so there will be a small loss there. GM did not retain all Pontiac buyers and Ford will not retain all Mercury buyers.