A few quick thoughts on the March 16th startup to calm people down...

[trm0002]

I'm really waiting for Oshawainsider to pop up here and give us a little heads up on the expected production ramp up times. That will tell us a lot more than anything else at this point.

[Fandango]

This thread tells me an undeniable fact: Camaro Will be produced. That's all I'm worried about. I'll get my hands on one. Question is, will I make a serious dent in my finances with a Henessy or wait for a Z28 or will SMS catch my eye. So much info. My brain is on over load.

[DGthe3]

Originally Posted by scotchsride09

Ok, here's why I haven't seen a reason for everyone who's ordered an SS to panic:

Let me clarify first by saying the following: 1.) I haven't read all of the threads due to sheer length. So if this has been discussed already and I'm wrong, I'm sorry.

2.) I suck at math, but I did use a calculator!

Ok, here goes:

I don't see a reason to be upset over the V8's because of math, and simple averages.

We know GM will build 100,000 over the model year. Someone ahead of me mentioned an 18-month build year but by my calculations it's 15? (March of this year through June of '09, isn't that when the build would cut off?) Anyway, I'll allow for both.


So, with even a 50/50 build rate, at a 15-month build year and 100,000 total units, GM will build about 6700 Camaros a month. I can't remember if they'll go full production at first or not but for the sake of this exercise I'll assume they will. So with a 50/50 build rate that's 3350 SS's a month. With the 10,000 sold orders at an 80/20 distribution of SS's to V6's, that's 8000 SS's, which will take approximately 2.4 months to build, at full production. That puts the SS's into June, at the latest.

Now, even assuming an 18-month build year, with all else the same, GM can manage ~5500 Camaros a month. That's 2750 SS's a month, and about 2.9 months to build 8000, or early-to-mid July, at the latest.

Assuming I'm correct, I don't see any reason to panic! At least for those who pre-ordered, and assuming the above conditions do apply.

I was more conservative and I had no later than September.

[BeermanSS]

So, just wondering, is the convertible confirmed by Mr. Settlemire as a 2011 model?

[UCF w00t]

Originally Posted by scotchsride09

Ok, here's why I haven't seen a reason for everyone who's ordered an SS to panic:
...
Assuming I'm correct, I don't see any reason to panic! At least for those who pre-ordered, and assuming the above conditions do apply.

I disagree with a couple of your assumptions. We need to go off the 20,000 with the stated deadline of end of 3rd Quarter. Also, we need to account for production ramp-up. What was the stated goal for the "one car per dealer" thing? 45 days I think? I read that there's 3600 dealers so lets use that to figure out how many cars they're anticipating to be built per day early on.

3600 / 30 days (6 weeks * 5 days/week). That's only 120 cars/day. I would think this number would go up steadily each month until they are maxed out. So March is about 100 cars/day (albeit an abbreviated month), April is 150, may 200, and so on maxing out at 400/day. Basically we can't count March and April since that will be primarily dedicated to v6 production for the 1 car/ dealer thing.
So beginning in May they'll build 4000 (200*20).
May + June + July + August puts us at 22000 cars. Just above what they said they'd have done before 3rd quarter was up. That gives them an extra month for leeway and production issues so they don't screw up the allocated 20,000 orders for the time period.

So the current trend is for 80% v8. This will not continue. The dealerships who have not preordered for enthusiasts already will likely trend more to the v6 just because they want to move metal. So let's just say that the rest of the orders are 50/50. That makes the total v8s 13,000 and v6's 7000 (from the initial 20k allocation). If my ramp up forecast is right, they can build 30,000 ordered cars by October if all goes well. If they do that at a 50/50 ratio thats 15,000 SS's. Which would satisfy my guestimate for v8 orders by fall.

So yea, my math and assumptions are different but I still don't see any targets being missed. But people need to keep in mind that where they are at their dealer matters much more than there being one of the 8000 ordered v8s. The rest of the allotment will not go unused and cars ordered in the future will have equal weight to the cars that have already been preordered!

[PQ]

I'll give you guys some info that you can take to the bank as being 100% accurate and confirmed and that is the fact that I am sooooooooo geeked up about this situation. Think about it 2 years ago it was "will this car look alot like the concept?", a year ago it was "what type of headlights might it have?" or "I wonder what the colors and stripe packages it will have?", just a few months ago I started to get scared that they would even make it at all considering GMs problems. I can't get mine until Jan. 2009 anyway so I'm just amped to see one of yours. I was conditioning and washing my IS 350 and my wife called me and asked what I was doing and I simply said "PRACTICING"

[DGthe3]

Originally Posted by irpq11

I'll give you guys some info that you can take to the bank as being 100% accurate and confirmed and that is the fact that I am sooooooooo geeked up about this situation. Think about it 2 years ago it was "will this car look alot like the concept?", a year ago it was "what type of headlights might it have?" or "I wonder what the colors and stripe packages it will have?", just a few months ago I started to get scared that they would even make it at all considering GMs problems. I can't get mine until Jan. 2009 anyway so I'm just amped to see one of yours. I was conditioning and washing my IS 350 and my wife called me and asked what I was doing and I simply said "PRACTICING"

typo?

[PQ]

Yup. typo. Jan. 2010. I'd REALLY get people pi$$ed if I got mine Jan. 2009.

[fixxer56]

Originally Posted by fbodfather

I'll be there! Be watching for a post shortly about a special invitation to the Philly show for Camaro enthusiasts --

(send me a note at work next week -- ...)

Scott, Love to meet you in Philly and personally thank you for all you've done for this project and the Camaro fan

[DGthe3]

Originally Posted by irpq11

Yup. typo. Jan. 2010. I'd REALLY get people pi$$ed if I got mine Jan. 2009.

Thats good it was a typo. Otherwise

[PQ]

BTW. At my local Dodge dealership back in April I was curious to see what they were asking for the Chalenger and they wanted 52k. 10k over sticker. Now they are willing to sell at sticker with deals. Sure feel for anyone who paid 10k to drive it 4 mo. early.

Does anyone have any info on the sales as far as # of units and SRTs to v6s and time frames for the Challenger as to how long it was before they were available from production. Could possibly give us a read on time frames for ours.

[s.norman]

what would be the earliest date we can get our SS,s?

[trm0002]

Originally Posted by s.norman

what would be the earliest date we can get our SS,s?

1st and foremost it depends on what number you are in your dealer's allocation and how many he has total. If you're in the first couple of a large allocation, my guess is that the earliest you would see yours is May.

[Amelia98]

I am the only allocation at my dealer! I was first in line three months before orders were taken nationally. Now it is just up to my dealer to be first in line for the allocations. I am so nervous I hope to get mine by April/May.

Amelia