2015 Camaro Z/28 20K Price Drop!!!

[G6Flyer]

No question that in the short term there is downward pressure. But in the long run, I think Z/28s will have strong value.

We don't have to rely on the millennials to drive up the value of these cars. It will be us, the ones that love them now that will always be the market.

My first car was a 1991 Z28. Since then I've owned two other 1991 Z28s and my twin brother still has our first one. I bought the other Z28s for nostalgia purposes - just like members of this forum will do in the future.

Do you really not think there are ~1,800 Camaro LT-owning youngsters that will lust after a Gen5 Z/28 in the future? Not to mention the guys that currently own Z/28s that will regret selling and will want to recapture the magic of these great cars.

I, for one, am not worried about future value, but I don't want to have to sell mine within the next several years...

[el ess A]

That's just it. Nobody has a crystal ball. Based on previous consumer demographics/habits, one can only speculate. Predicting future car values is like trying to determine where a tornado will touch down. You may be correct...or not. Time will tell. I'm turning off my emotional attachment to the Camaro for a minute and step back and see it from an economic view.

If they don't make another Z/28 ever, or one that is "weaker" than the 5th gen versions, that may make a big difference. But again, we don't know that just yet.

I remember in the 80s when they said the IROC-Z would be super valuable in the not-too-distant future...and??? No. Why? They built a better mouse-trap in years since. I've only run across 2 IROC Zs recently that was asking 1987 MSRP prices in 2015. So that's less than 50% of the value of 1987 dollars.

2nd gens are JUST NOW starting to pick up steam on the collectability standpoint. About 40 years after the fact. It took less than 20 before the 60s/early 70s muscle was gaining serious momentum. And it's still fairly strong today.

The muscle-car phenomenon from yesteryear is something that is not in line to be duplicated again. Would be nice to see, though.

One good thing going for the Z cars is that in the big scheme of things, they didn't make 80,000 of them. So there is a rarity factor hanging in there.

In the near-term, I don't see Z car values dropping off a cliff. I have a ZL1 where values are plummeting right now too. Not that I worry that much since it's not going anywhere anytime soon.

So if you want to believe these 5th gens will somehow be worth a bazillion dollars one day, then go ahead. But current trends likely won't support it. This has nothing to do with desirability. I think the Camaro fans will always love them. But I don't see a truckload of current 5th graders 20 years from now clamoring to get their hands on a 2015 Z/28 or ZL1 and paying stupid money to get it.

So even if you bought at MSRP and keep it 20 years and someone pays you 110,000 for it, you still may be just breaking even accounting for inflation. Which is about right if you just use 2% inflation average. Selling it for what you paid for it would net a loss.

But if you're buying new at 50-55K, well, that's not a bad entry point for a car like a Z/28. Which I may be in the minority, but while I can afford to buy a Z/28, I couldn't do the car justice other than driving it around town or looking at it in the garage. I don't have an interest in tracking my cars, so for me it's totally impractical. But if you were going to buy a 5th gen ZL1 or Z/28 and keep it for a long time, now seems the best time you would want to get one.

Let's look at my IROC Z example for a second. IIRC, they were about $16K for a bare bones IROC in 1987. Add some cool options and we'll just round it to 20K. That's in 1987 dollars. Pretty sporty for back then. Just to break even accounting for inflation, you'd have to sell it for $42K today. And how much was spent in time-capsuling the car away?

This is why it's a major LONGSHOT buying a car as an investment tool. You may have better luck making millions on FanDuel.

[G6Flyer]

Originally Posted by el ess A

That's just it. Nobody has a crystal ball. Based on previous consumer demographics/habits, one can only speculate. Predicting future car values is like trying to determine where a tornado will touch down. You may be correct...or not. Time will tell. I'm turning off my emotional attachment to the Camaro for a minute and step back and see it from an economic view.

If they don't make another Z/28 ever, or one that is "weaker" than the 5th gen versions, that may make a big difference. But again, we don't know that just yet.

I remember in the 80s when they said the IROC-Z would be super valuable in the not-too-distant future...and??? No. Why? They built a better mouse-trap in years since. I've only run across 2 IROC Zs recently that was asking 1987 MSRP prices in 2015. So that's less than 50% of the value of 1987 dollars.

2nd gens are JUST NOW starting to pick up steam on the collectability standpoint. About 40 years after the fact. It took less than 20 before the 60s/early 70s muscle was gaining serious momentum. And it's still fairly strong today.

The muscle-car phenomenon from yesteryear is something that is not in line to be duplicated again. Would be nice to see, though.

One good thing going for the Z cars is that in the big scheme of things, they didn't make 80,000 of them. So there is a rarity factor hanging in there.

In the near-term, I don't see Z car values dropping off a cliff. I have a ZL1 where values are plummeting right now too. Not that I worry that much since it's not going anywhere anytime soon.

So if you want to believe these 5th gens will somehow be worth a bazillion dollars one day, then go ahead. But current trends likely won't support it. This has nothing to do with desirability. I think the Camaro fans will always love them. But I don't see a truckload of current 5th graders 20 years from now clamoring to get their hands on a 2015 Z/28 or ZL1 and paying stupid money to get it.

So even if you bought at MSRP and keep it 20 years and someone pays you 110,000 for it, you still may be just breaking even accounting for inflation. Which is about right if you just use 2% inflation average. Selling it for what you paid for it would net a loss.

But if you're buying new at 50-55K, well, that's not a bad entry point for a car like a Z/28. Which I may be in the minority, but while I can afford to buy a Z/28, I couldn't do the car justice other than driving it around town or looking at it in the garage. I don't have an interest in tracking my cars, so for me it's totally impractical. But if you were going to buy a 5th gen ZL1 or Z/28 and keep it for a long time, now seems the best time you would want to get one.

Let's look at my IROC Z example for a second. IIRC, they were about $16K for a bare bones IROC in 1987. Add some cool options and we'll just round it to 20K. That's in 1987 dollars. Pretty sporty for back then. Just to break even accounting for inflation, you'd have to sell it for $42K today. And how much was spent in time-capsuling the car away?

This is why it's a major LONGSHOT buying a car as an investment tool. You may have better luck making millions on FanDuel.

I'm under no illusion that any Gen5 Camaro will be worth a "bazillion dollars", but a Gen3 IROC-Z is in no way analogous to a Z/28 or ZL1. The IROC-Z was little more than a sticker package on an anemic performance car, while both the ZL1 and Z/28 are potent cars, well-differentiated from the rest of the production line.

Further, IROC-Z production numbers were:

1985 - 21,177
1986 - 49,584
1987 - 38,888
1988 - 27,811
1989 - 24,007
1990 - 5,517
Total- 166,986 or (on average) 27,831/yr.

Over the 6 years of production, they made more IROC-Zs per MONTH than they made Z/28s in total.

The fact that a Gen3 IROC-Z is worth anywhere near it's original MSRP, inflation or not, bodes well for a real performance car that was built in small numbers.

[Zslash28]

*typed on my phone, excuse my grammer/spelling.*
I totally agree with you on these cars not bringing a bazillions dollars, thatd be ludicrous. But maybe in the $100k range.
And your right, time will tell. Heck we may wipe ourselfs out before these cars would be "collectable" like the old muscle cars. Now, what makes the popular oldcars worth money has already been said, supply/demand/nogastalgia/reproduction market/auctions, etc.. I do find fault in your logic in comparing the new Z/28 to the 3rd gen IROC-Z, really? The 80s and 90s were all about marketing things "collectable", "rare", "special edition", and in fact, there were 166,976 IROC-Zs made, read that again....holy smokes, thats almost 88 times the total of 5th gen Z/28s. You can probably trow a rock in any town in the US and hit one. So of course they are not rare or demand any where near a premium. Only the low, low mile examples that are stock get attention. Youd be better off comparing the GNX, but even then the new Z has it beat by nearly 3 times in production numbers.

[Zslash28]

G6, lol, right there with ya bud.

Good conversation though on the future, we wont know. Though, as with previous cars the low mile original cars win out. So all the ZL1 guys can go buy a Z/28 when they are in the $20s, and stash it away.

[el ess A]

Again, the IROC Z was used as an example of what was said back in 1987 as one of the cars that had future collectability and would be worth a considerable sum down the road. You'd have to be able to put yourself back to 1987 where the Camaros of today weren't even conceivable back then. Of course, we all know how that turned out. THAT was my point. Not about how it compares to the 5th gen Z/28. The main point was that then or now, nobody has a crystal ball on this to know exactly how all this plays out. The new Z/28 should hold better value than the IROC for sure.

Another example of then-current bad-assery that was going to be a sure lock for collectability was the ZR-1 Corvette. Plenty of early model low-mile examples of them for around $18-30K more or less all day long. What happened? Granted, the values aren't dirt compared to "regular" Corvettes from the same year, but far from even the back-then MSRP in today's dollars. even for the 92-95 ZR-1s when they only made about 500 per year. I knew someone who bought a 91 turquoise colored ZR-1 to put away and keep because he believed it would be worth a lot later on. They only made about 100 of them that year in that color. I lost track of him and the car, but I'm sure it's not worth what he'd hoped even if he still has it.

To wit, they made 2 gajillion 69 Camaros but yet they hold their values well, for those that survived. So the production numbers thing doesn't always necessitate collectability/increased value. So much so that they've even reproduced the 1st gen Camaro bodies and lo and behold, retro-fitted some of the 69 styling into the current Camaros to cash in on the demand.

Part of the issue was that after the EPA killed off the first muscle car dinosaurs, we were "stuck" with 73-91 era where GM cars were far and few between as far as performance was concerned. Nearly 20 years of mostly slugs that followed. (People thought the GN was some sort of monster. Today, it's still a desirable car, but not because it's still the quickest on the block.)

The onslaught of slug mobiles was partly the fuel for the people wanting to reach back and get the first round of muscle cars. Emotions took over and prices get stupid. I watched it all unfold.

Also, back in the 60s and early 70s, you didn't have the pressures of Godzilla cars and all the other "imports" that actually had a chance of turning people's heads. What you got was rusty mailboxes on wheels from the import scene. They've made leaps and bounds on reliability, power, and styling. Back in the 70s I NEVER EVER heard anyone saying they wanted to buy a Honda, Mitsubishi, or Toyota anything.

We will get there again where they pull the cubic inch/HP rug out from under us. Hope it's not soon though. And then HP will drop like a rock, and THEN maybe, those emotions take over and you'll yearn for that car you used to have and prices will go up again. But if HP doesn't die soon, 505/580 HP will be like the 330 HP Camaro SS LT4 in the mid-90s. Which was a big deal then, but not so much now.

There's probably no right answer, but it is fun to speculate. Just know that buying cars off the lot is a bigger risk that takes consideration if it's anything other than you want to own and drive it.

It comes down to this- as it has been since the beginning of time- you cannot predict future collectability and prices on cars that are currently in the showrooms.

[G6Flyer]

There were 10,567 C4 ZR1s built. Again, not really comparable to less than 1,800... With that said, C4s are just now turning the corner on value. Give it a few more years and those ZR1s are going to turn around.

You say there's no way to predict future value, but I think it's pretty easy to tell if something ISN'T going to hold its value. If anyone believed their 1 of 167,000 IROC-Z was going to be collectible, they were an idiot.

[Z/28Dan]

4038 Ford GT's produced in 2005 and 2006. These cars have way more than doubled in value.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_GT

I'm not sure if it's a fair comparison to a Z/28, but they are pretty similar in that they are purpose built and limited production American cars built in this century.

Only time will tell. For now, drive 'em!

[el ess A]

But with the C4 ZR-1 there was what, only around 7K sold in the U.S. over a 6 year run, with most of that coming in the first two years. Even the last 4 years when they made 500 or less each of those years, they're not at 1995 MSRP values (around 69K). But that's not the real point here.

I didn't think they'd ever be selling new Z/28s at <60K either, so it just goes to show, nobody really knows for sure. Even at 1,800 units, they basically overproduced the Z/28 since the facts are there the cars aren't exactly flying off the lots without big incentives. (Same with the Caddy CTS, which the wife wants a new one)

Goes right back to supply and demand. PLUS the crappy economy isn't helping. Like someone here already said, even a Z/28 at MSRP is worth it. Incentives make it that much better.

I think the prices will likely rebound some once the 6th gens are out and about. But look out if they make a Z/28 and ZL1 in a 6th gen that can do what the current ones can or better.

Salad days are here, at least for now. Enjoy them while they last!!

[Desert Dweller]

1,288 z/28's built for 2015.

500 for 2014.

This is a no-brainer, it's just a matter of when and how much.

[yellow69z28rs]

But look out if they make a Z/28 and ZL1 in a 6th gen that can do what the current ones can or better.
[/QUOTE]


The ZL1 is not a "if", its a when.
The fact that GM is not saying on the Z/28 make it a "when" also, and it will positively "do it better".

Bottom line, GM screwed up releasing the Z/28 so late in gen5 run, therefore they gotta give them away.
Bet the next Z/28s come in a lot closer to the middle of the gen instead of the end.

[yellow69z28rs]

Originally Posted by G6Flyer

Did your yellow 69 Z28 RS go up in value? They've made a lot of Z/28s since then...

All the Z/28s made since then were just badges. (see values)
That's one of the driving factors of all the early muscle cars values.
The difference is, these days the next is better, and the next, and so on.

[G6Flyer]

Originally Posted by yellow69z28rs

All the Z/28s made since then were just badges.
That's one of the driving factors of all the early muscle cars values.
The difference is these days the next is better, and the next and so on.

I assume you meant to say "All the Z/28s made since then we're just badges until the 5th Gen", but just forgot the last part?

[cvp33]

Wow. Those dropped in value quick. Feel sorry for those that paid over sticker. Those that are hoping for some collectible value will have to wait decades for that to happen. Look at the 1995 ZR1's to see what 'values' may be in 20 years. That is if you can keep the miles below 5K. The only car in the modern muscle era that seems to have bucked this trend is the GNX.