December 2010 Camaro Sales/Production Figures Ends Mustang's 23 Year Sales Reign!

[thePill]

Originally Posted by Enator

And here it comes

The sales listed on that chart are from April 2009 to December 2009, sales are totaled from the calender year starting January 1st, 2009 which for the Mustang were 66,623.

April '09 sales month for the Camaro were poor, only 614 were sold, 5,463 which was the worst sales month until Jan 2010 and October 2010.

In a calendar year, sales where down by a at least 11% for the Camaro and up 10% for the Mustang. This is why you see a downward sales trend for the Camaro.

[Mr. Wyndham]

Originally Posted by thePill

The sales listed on that chart are from April 2009 to December 2009, sales are totaled from the calender year starting January 1st, 2009 which for the Mustang were 66,623.

But the Camaro was not sold for the first four months, which I think is that chart's point.

[thePill]

Originally Posted by Dragoneye

But the Camaro was not sold for the first four months, which I think is that chart's point.

Yeah, I understand that but hypothetically, if the Camaro was available for a full 12 months in the first year of production, It could have very possibly sold close to 100k units. This is speculation of course but it is safe to say that the Camaro would have sold at least 7000-8000 per month upon release regardless of the time of year.

For example, from April 2009 to April 2010, GM sold 91,374 in a 12 month period. Low April and May '09 sales were due to end of the month release in April (614) and limited initial availability in May (5463). Its pretty safe to say that GM would have sold at least 30k more Camaros in CY09 with a 4 more months since GM averaged around 8000 sales a month. Year vs. year and month over month shows about an 11% decrease in sales volume compared to last years sales trend.

Ford seen about a 10% increase in Mustang sales from CY'09 to CY'10 since the Camaro was re-released (66,623 vs this years 73,716) You could say the economy affected sales but that wouldn't be accurate when one brand sees an increase and the other a decrease.

[radz28]

And Camaro doesn't have a ragtop nor a Big Dog, like Mustang has had.

[thePill]

Originally Posted by radz28

And Camaro doesn't have a ragtop nor a Big Dog, like Mustang has had.

Depending on production volume this year, the Convertible could account for 30% of total production (New convertibles would see a 30% production share with the coupe). Assuming that GM will only stack an additional 30k+ units to production on top of the current coupe numbers would be a bad assumption. GM has already started to limit coupe production this year to accommodate the influx of Vert production, coupe sales and production will likely fall about 20-25% this year.

Convertibles usually generate only about a 5% increase in total sales for a model throughout the CY (between 4-6k depending on production) and that's a pretty good chunk out of the entire US Convertible market. Convertibles only account for 2% of the entire US car market (or roughly 120k Convertibles a year). The other 20-25% of convertible sales are directly taken from the coupe's production and sales. Last year, GM produced 129k Camaros, to assume that GM would just produce an additional 38k convertibles on top of that would be wishful thinking. Remember, Oshawa is already working 3 shifts...

GM started limiting production shortly after the MY11 Camaro started production, most likely due to the 30k unsold '10 coupes but it also gets Camaro production down to where it needs to be in order to produce the vert. As it sits right now, By the time the vert is ready to sell in April, sales for the coupe could be down by almost 20%. MY hold outs and an aging product contribute to the downward trend... convertible sales may only sustain sales and not boost them pass the magic 1% sales increase.

I see the Convertible and the new V6 eating most of the SS sales this year. If demand of the V6 go up along with the new Convertible then SS production will be affected and shortly after... sales...

Mustang convertible sales will only see a small decrease, if any.. Convertibles compete on the entire US market against other convertibles. Even if every potential Mustang convertible owner decided to buy a Camaro vert, it would only be about a 5000k unit decrease seeing that the Mustang controls only 2% of US vert sales. That would be a stretch as the last I heard, Fords production volume for the vert Mustang is 15%, And I am being generous with a possible 5% Camaro vert market share... The Convertible king of sales is the MX-5 and it soaks up 10% of the market at a $22k price tag.

The Z28 will help but it won't tip the scales drastically, Boss and GT500 sales will mitigate that. GM would have to produce and sale 12,000 Z28s to stay even with Fords Special models.

[thePill]

Here is something to think about:

Oshawa can produce 450 Camaro's a day, seeing that the maximum capacity is about 10,700 a month (previously stated to be 18,000) that means the plant operates 23-24 days a month. Even running 31 days a month, Oshawa can only push 13,950 using that same formula.

If 30% is the target production rate for the convertibles, that would leave room for 7,490 coupes to be produced a month. Out of those coupes, 40% or 2996 are V6 equipped (I think V6 sales are closer to 50/50 now) leaving 4494 1SS/2SS production a month. That totals 53,928 V8s coupes, 35,952 V6 coupes and 38,520 V6/V8 convertibles can be produced.

Grand total production is 128,400 at maximum capacity all year long (hard to do)... Generally, GM sells only 70% of what was produced meaning CY11 sales would be 89,600... 8,301 Camaro's more than 2010. Vert sales would contribute to a 10% total sales increase from 2010, a 30% sales volume at 26,880 sold which is a a HUGE 23% of the entire US convertible market... and that is very, very good and probably some what unrealistic .

But... If coupe sales continue to hold steady at an 11% decrease year over year for CY11 and not fall more than 11% (not likely), it will bring the total sales number down by 9886 units in total sales or 79,714 total sold in 2011.

This number is without the Z28 of course but if the coupe sales continue to decrease, it will mitigate any increase the convertible has on total sales. On the other hand, if all of the 38,520 2011 convertibles are sold, it would raise the count up to 91,354, 43% of Camaro sales volume and 33% of the US convertible market (again, its some what unrealistic) but I highly doubt every convertible will sell, especially after the initial release has died down and seasonal market patterns interfere with sales of that type of vehicle.

I guess it could be done, the 2005 Mustang sold 44,065 convertibles (a 26% production volume) to claim the number one spot with 14.8% of the vert market in '05. Although, total production and sales were 160,000 Mustangs and convertible sales back then were alittle over 300k opposed to the current 115k (or 2% of 5.77 million car sales) from last year.

Edit: Something I found while poking around google, only 41,000 new convertibles were sold and registered in 2009... Now I understand why GM chose to hold off on the convertible, I was told it was because of a rag top distributor went under. Hopefully total sales increase on drop tops this year...

[Mr. Wyndham]

Originally Posted by thePill

hypothetically

Mm-hmm.

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but take the first four months of 2010 and add them to the last 8 months of 2009 (only period the Camaro was sold for) that's as accurate of a hypothetical as it's going to get.

And the convertible was delayed because of a supplier issue. They needed to find a new supplier asap and address the manufacturing issues that come with a new company. It should have been a full member of the 2011 MY club.