Electric Vehicles

[90503]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Nothing really new here. In Europe sales are definitely driven by both regulations and incentives. In the US it’s more organic with some lift from incentives. Most of the EVs on the market today do not qualify for federal incentives, yet they still sell. State incentives vary state-to-state.

The rate of growth of sales is definitely slower than OEMs were projecting when they were all tripping over each other a couple years ago to announce increasingly aggressive sales targets. Especially the automakers that were saying “100% EV by <pick a year>”. Those automakers are definitely rolling back their claims and delaying product launches. What they are NOT doing is canceling products.

As I’ve said before and will continue to say, getting any state (California) or country (Canada) to 100% EV by 2035 is not feasible. Until there are solutions for multi-family dwellings (they are coming..I’ve seen a few approaches) and better solutions for long distance heavy towing (campers, towing a second vehicle for vacation usage, towing cars to car shows) you can never get to 100%. Getting to 30% by 2030 is a good bet. Getting to 50% maybe even 70% by 2035 is possible, provided cost and pricing comes down a bit and model coverage improves. There is evidence that both of those things are happening. How fast they happen is a whole different thing.

In the meantime, we have this data…

Well, I'm no math wiz, but those four states and D.C account for 103.3% of EV sales for Q3 of 2023?...lol. All the other 46 states sold none? or got their money back?...lol...
What am I missing here?...lol

"Light truck sales are 74% of the EV market"...???

[olrocker]

Deregulation will change the goals and trajectory of everything.

If car companies want to stay in business after CAFE is slashed, they’ll go back to the drawing boards.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Mr_Draco

I was reading about EU's new Battery Replacement mandate that requires all electronic devices to have a battery that is easily replaceable by the owner by 2027. While I was reading about this, I found that there is also consideration about making a mandate requiring the same thing for EVs. If this comes to fruition and automakers are forced to design vehicles and battery packs to be easily removable, you may see battery swap stations similar to Nio's become more of a main stream idea.

No. It just means that the battery just needs to be removable. And they already are. Just like an engine is removable and a transmission is removable. There is nothing saying it has to be a fast swap.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by 90503

Well, I'm no math wiz, but those four states and D.C account for 103.3% of EV sales for Q3 of 2023?...lol. All the other 46 states sold none? or got their money back?...lol...
What am I missing here?...lol

Try looking at it this way…

• 28.1% of vehicles sold in California in Q3 2023 were EV
• 21.7% of vehicles sold in Washington in Q3 2023 were EV
• 19.3% of vehicles sold in District of Columbia in Q3 2023 were EV
• 17.9% of vehicles sold in Colorado in Q3 2023 were EV
• 16.3% of vehicles sold in Oregon in Q3 2023 were EV

The authors of the article saw fit to stop at the top 5 states but the data exists for all 50 and every province of Canada. S&P Global actually has it broken down by zip code.

Originally Posted by 90503

"Light truck sales are 74% of the EV market"...???

This means that 74% of the EVs sold are classified as Light Trucks. The category “Light Trucks” include SUVs and Crossovers as well as pickups. So Ford Lightning and Mach E, Chevrolet Silverado EV, Blazer EV, Equinox EV Cadillac Lyriq, Bolt EUV, Rivian R1S and R1T, Tesla Model X, Tesla Model Y, and Cybertruck, Nissan Ariya, Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, and Genesis GV60, are all classified as “Light Truck”. On the ICE side that would include everything sold by Buick and GMC, everything sold by Chevrolet except Corvette, Camaro, and Malibu. It would also exclude the 3500 and up series of Chevrolet and GMC trucks. Cadillac XT4/5/6 and Escalade are also Light Truck.

[Capricio]

Here's yet another article demonstrating how the regulatory state is making ICE uncompetitive:

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2024/07...-and-not-a-v6/

From the comments section:

There is no comparison in driveability. The 2.5 is loud (almost intrusive) in comparison to the V6. The 3.6L offered a smooth quiet ride with a long deep torque curve. It’s not that the 2.5 lacks power, it’s just noisy and annoying to drive. Not what you want when spending this type of money. Clearly Noise Vibration and Harshness is no longer on GMs concern list. Disappointing.

Not to mention the likely reduction in reliability by using forced induction. Another commenter mentioned the new turbo 4s requiring premium fuel, another additional expense to the consumer. Without a full size offering, and with all the dealer franchise buyouts, I think the future of Buick is bleak. Maybe that is considered the price of progress for the EV revolution, but it makes me sad. I always liked Buick as an affordable, practical, reliable, value oriented, luxury alternative to Cadillac.

[90503]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Try looking at it this way…

• 28.1% of vehicles sold in California in Q3 2023 were EV
• 21.7% of vehicles sold in Washington in Q3 2023 were EV
• 19.3% of vehicles sold in District of Columbia in Q3 2023 were EV
• 17.9% of vehicles sold in Colorado in Q3 2023 were EV
• 16.3% of vehicles sold in Oregon in Q3 2023 were EV

The authors of the article saw fit to stop at the top 5 states but the data exists for all 50 and every province of Canada. S&P Global actually has it broken down by zip code.


This means that 74% of the EVs sold are classified as Light Trucks. The category “Light Trucks” include SUVs and Crossovers as well as pickups. So Ford Lightning and Mach E, Chevrolet Silverado EV, Blazer EV, Equinox EV Cadillac Lyriq, Bolt EUV, Rivian R1S and R1T, Tesla Model X, Tesla Model Y, and Cybertruck, Nissan Ariya, Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, and Genesis GV60, are all classified as “Light Truck”. On the ICE side that would include everything sold by Buick and GMC, everything sold by Chevrolet except Corvette, Camaro, and Malibu. It would also exclude the 3500 and up series of Chevrolet and GMC trucks. Cadillac XT4/5/6 and Escalade are also Light Truck.

Yeah, got it! Those look like fun stats, but the link in your post doesn't connect. (It looked like the % of EV sales was referring to the chunk of the 350kish total for 3Q '23). The actual sales numbers of EVs in each state would be something of interest.

How about 4Q '23, 1Q '24, 2Q '24 EV sales?

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by 90503

Yeah, got it! Those look like fun stats, but the link in your post doesn't connect. (It looked like the % of EV sales was referring to the chunk of the 350kish total for 3Q '23). The actual sales numbers of EVs in each state would be something of interest.

How about 4Q '23, 1Q '24, 2Q '24 EV sales?

Data not available yet in this format. There’s always a lag in compiling registration data. It involves dealing with 50+ different DMVs / Secretaries of State / whatever the state / province entity for collecting and then redistributing the data. Overall sales data is available because it doesn’t have to go through all these different agencies.

[Martinjlm]

I found this video pretty interesting. Guy has had his Model 3 Performance for 6 years, 200,000 miles. Worth watching to get honest informed opinion of how the car has held up.

He estimates that his battery capacity has reduced @ 10% over the 6 years / 200k. Most of that in the first couple years then pretty much leveled out. He also talks about tire life. I won’t provide a spoiler on that. Just watch the video.

https://youtu.be/aVme3uSuySw?si=qvE3RUhH8x1iv05s

[silversleeper]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

I found this video pretty interesting. Guy has had his Model 3 Performance for 6 years, 200,000 miles. Worth watching to get honest informed opinion of how the car has held up.

He estimates that his battery capacity has reduced @ 10% over the 6 years / 200k. Most of that in the first couple years then pretty much leveled out. He also talks about tire life. I won’t provide a spoiler on that. Just watch the video.

https://youtu.be/aVme3uSuySw?si=qvE3RUhH8x1iv05s

I'm surprised you didn't point out his error in guessing his battery degradation.
How much power he puts into charging it isn't the concern in degrading it is loss of range. I know how old lead acid batteries can charge all day at some high amperage and they still are junk, or vice versa chargers shows they tapered off to low amps and the battery has little capacity to keep it's charge or start the car on a cold day. Kilowatts into it is same as old school amp charger experience just different terminology. amps times volts equals watts.
All in all his and comments have similarity to what many owners have said of batteries doing downhill fast or requiring replacement are not that common. Other problems not frequent. Dealer service often disappoints. Brakes last forever. Supercharging doesn't ruin them. Tires last according to driving habbits and can be replaced with cheaper options but with higher rolling resistance and no interior foam sound proofing liner.
Acceleration per dollar -used model 3performance I have been saying it many times here so I won't belabor it.

[ChevyRules]

Originally Posted by silversleeper

I'm surprised you didn't point out his error in guessing his battery degradation.
How much power he puts into charging it isn't the concern in degrading it is loss of range. I know how old lead acid batteries can charge all day at some high amperage and they still are junk, or vice versa chargers shows they tapered off to low amps and the battery has little capacity to keep it's charge or start the car on a cold day. Kilowatts into it is same as old school amp charger experience just different terminology. amps times volts equals watts.
All in all his and comments have similarity to what many owners have said of batteries doing downhill fast or requiring replacement are not that common. Other problems not frequent. Dealer service often disappoints. Brakes last forever. Supercharging doesn't ruin them. Tires last according to driving habbits and can be replaced with cheaper options but with higher rolling resistance and no interior foam sound proofing liner.
Acceleration per dollar -used model 3performance I have been saying it many times here so I won't belabor it.

Different chemistries. Can't compare how a lead-acid behaves at its end of life vs Lithium-ion/polymer.

But still a slight flaw if he is just going off how much power the car uses to charge the car from 0-100% as you have charging loss, power going to other parts of the car besides the battery, etc. That should only be 1-2 kw so not a huge difference.

Now if he is using Teslafi or any other reader, that 66 kwh is accurate as it is reading directly from the BMS.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by silversleeper

I'm surprised you didn't point out his error in guessing his battery degradation.
How much power he puts into charging it isn't the concern in degrading it is loss of range. I know how old lead acid batteries can charge all day at some high amperage and they still are junk, or vice versa chargers shows they tapered off to low amps and the battery has little capacity to keep it's charge or start the car on a cold day. Kilowatts into it is same as old school amp charger experience just different terminology. amps times volts equals watts.
All in all his and comments have similarity to what many owners have said of batteries doing downhill fast or requiring replacement are not that common. Other problems not frequent. Dealer service often disappoints. Brakes last forever. Supercharging doesn't ruin them. Tires last according to driving habbits and can be replaced with cheaper options but with higher rolling resistance and no interior foam sound proofing liner.
Acceleration per dollar -used model 3performance I have been saying it many times here so I won't belabor it.

I didn’t call it out because he used the same methods consistently so he was basically reporting the difference in his experience from early in his ownership to later in his ownership. Now, if he said “I’m an engineer and I have studied my battery degradation” I’d make the same call you did.

And as ChevyRules said, depletion characteristics are much different lead iron to lithium ion.

[silversleeper]

Yes the chemistries are different but all batteries for EVs want the same things. Able to be recharged and hold nearly the same energy. I was surprised disposable AA alkaline batteries can be recharged. They are only some 75% as strong and only a couple times can be done but IDK that.
He was disputing an app that said 85% because of his kilowatts to charge. If he was the housewife that used Kw to charge or how long it takes to charge I would not shake my head but I did think if he was going to dispute the app he would know how the app worked or at least make some logical theory of his degradation.
Our cars have a built in degradation test under the service menu. It does it scientifically where you leave it plugged in and it draws it down from 100% charge to 0 with known loads of high draw items. IIRC headlights and heat pump/AC/heater and how long that takes. I didn't do it because I didn't want the wear on my battery going to 0% and It might do it more than once for a more accurate report IDK.
The app I think takes in account how much % the charge depletes per mi driven. IDK if it takes into account mph and factors that could be accounted for with the kw/mi that is calculated so really if it included that it could compare it to other known batteries and their state of degradation as their database has tens of thousands of entries. The apps might be reasonably accurate. I'm too lazy to try to find that info and install such an app but if someone smart did it I'd take their lead. Youtube tends to have non-science as a standard.
Ads for things just have some blocky pics that can be swiped up quickly on a smartphone with little actual information and just enough to provide a swiping experience for someone to buy the product. Something like tapping a pack of cigarettes on your wrist and the sound and feel to sell their product. Amazing that the big brands did pack their product to satisfy that segment.

[genxer]

For the EV'ers here, it's probably worth getting a flashlight out to periodically inspect the plating on charge pins for wear or being cooked.

"Tesla car culture is full of hacks and shortcuts, some more effective than others. One, known as the “wet towel” trick, required the Tesla Charging department — or whatever remains of it — to publicly tell customers to knock it off."
https://www.autoblog.com/2024/07/28/...nths-too-late/

https://www.thedrive.com/news/the-we...charging-speed

https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaModel3...ger/?rdt=62345

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by 90503

Yeah, got it! Those look like fun stats, but the link in your post doesn't connect. (It looked like the % of EV sales was referring to the chunk of the 350kish totalfor 3Q '23). The actual sales numbers of EVs in each state would be something of interest.

How about 4Q '23, 1Q '24, 2Q '24 EV sales?

I chose to wait until I got July sales report in to respond to this question.

Hybrid sales

• July 2024: 133,236 up 28% from July 2023.
• YTD 848,982 up 32.6% from same time in 2023.

PHEV sales

• July 2024: 24,426 up 1.9% from July 2023.
• YTD 193,795 up 19.5% from same time in 2023

EV sales

• July 2024: 110,378 up 9.1% from July 2023
• YTD 708,336 up 6% from same time in 2024

Industry sales

• July 2024: 1,292,154 down 1.1% from July 2023
• YTD 9,195,198 up 0.8% from same time in 2023

So, in summary, even though the total industry is about stable +/- 1%, Hybrids, PHEVs and EVs are still growing market share.

Some of the growth of Hybrid share comes from the fact that for 2024 Toyota has made several of their high volume products (Camry, Sienna, Venza, Crown) available as hybrid only and has actively increased the volume of available hybrids in other high volume nameplates (RAV4, Corolla). The best selling hybrid is Toyota Camry with 23,438 sold in July. Up 535% due primarily to the switch from hybrid as an option to hybrid as the only configuration. Camry sales as a whole are down 4% July 2024 compared to July 2023 and up 1% YTD 2024 compared to same time in 2023. In July 2023 hybrids were 13% of Camry sales. Now they 100%.

The growth of PHEV could potentially be higher, but there are simply not that many products to choose from. Several Toyota products, several Jeep products, and several Hyundai Kia products. There are also some Lincoln, Porsche, and Mercedes-Benz products but they have sales in the double digits, so basically rounding error. The single best selling PHEV is the Jeep Wrangler 4Xe at 4,617 units sold in July. Down 21.3% from July 2023.

The growth of EV is primarily due to new products coming to market in 2024 (Chevrolet Equinox EV, Honda Prologue, lower priced trims of Lucid Air), but also significant increases in sales from segment “veterans” (Lightning sales up 81.8%, Mach E up 16.6%). The single best selling EV in July is Tesla Model Y at 32,861 sold in July. Up 3.5% from 2023.